Best bets for Friday’s Breeders’ Cup races at Keeneland
LEXINGTON, Ky. — Months of anticipation will come to 14 thundering conclusions over the next two days as the Breeders’ Cup draws many of the world’s top thoroughbred racehorses to the heart of Bluegrass country.
Most of the attention will be focused on the $6 million Classic on Saturday at historic Keeneland Race Course, where unbeaten and untested Flightline will attempt to become the first horse to win North America’s richest race without first tasting defeat since the filly Zenyatta first did it in 2009.
Fans hoping to catch a bit of history might wait until the marquee race to tune in, but horseplayers aren’t about to sit on their wallets that long. There are 13 Breeders’ Cup races before the Classic that appear to offer far better wagering opportunities.
The action starts Friday with five races exclusively for 2-year-olds, highlighted by the Juvenile. The winner of that race will immediately become the early favorite for the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
The first Breeders’ Cup race will be the sixth race on Keeneland’s card, with an approximate noon post time. FanDuel TV (formerly TVG) and the USA Network will broadcast Friday’s races, with coverage beginning at 11 a.m.
Let’s see if we can fatten up the bankroll before Saturday’s nine-race extravaganza.
$1 million Juvenile Turf Sprint, 5½ furlongs on grass
The Juvenile Turf Sprint, added to the Breeders’ Cup menu in 2018, has been something of an anomaly. That’s because European-based horses, who typically excel in Breeders’ Cup races on the lawn, have yet to win one of these sod sprints.
That drought might end this year, with five accomplished European runners signed up, led by 7-2 morning line favorite The Platinum Queen. The filly has won four of her seven starts in England and France, including a Group 1 in her last race. The bad news is that the Richard Fahey-trained miss drew the 12 post, meaning she could be caught wide on the turn and lose considerable ground.
If the favorite falters, Love Reigns could keep the trophy in Kentucky for trainer Wesley Ward, who excels with turf sprinters.
Brunker’s choices: Love Reigns (2), Mischief Magic (5), The Platinum Queen (12).
$2 million Juvenile Fillies, 1 1/16 miles on dirt
The Juvenile Fillies appears wide open, with the Todd Pletcher-trained Chocolate Gelato, winner of the Grade 1 Frizette at Aqueduct, installed as the luke-warm 7-2 favorite.
Chocolate Gelato drew the 10 hole, however, and doesn’t have much of an edge over her competitors in terms of speed figures. That sent me looking for a better price, which I found in Atomically, who also is trained by Pletcher. Her top Beyer Speed Figure of 83 in a route is equal to Chocolate Gelato’s, and she’s 12-1 on the morning line.
Brunker’s choices: Atomically (8), Chop Chop (7), You’re My Girl (2).
$1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf, 1 mile on grass
A deep and contentious field of 13 is entered, including five Europe-based runners.
The 4-1 morning line favorite is Meditate, runner-up in Group 1 races in her past two starts in Ireland and England after wins in her first four races. Trainer Aiden O’Brien has enjoyed considerable success in the Breeders’ Cup, with 13 wins.
Brunker’s choices: Meditate (10); Free Look (4); Cairo Consort (2).
$2 million Juvenile, 1⅛ miles on dirt
Breeders’ Cup races are often great for price shopping, but I can’t persuade myself to pick against Cave Rock, the 4-5 morning line favorite conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. The colt has crushed the competition in three starts in California.
If there is an upset, it probably will be sprung by Forte (4-1), who has the advantage of a winning effort over the Keeneland track.
Brunker’s choices: Cave Rock (3), Forte (4), National Treasure (10).
$1 million Juvenile Turf, 1 mile on grass
European shippers have done quite well in this race, a trend that might continue given the presence of the Charlie Appleby-trained Silver Knott, the 3-1 morning line favorite. His only loss in his past four starts overseas came on a soft track that he apparently hated.
I will try to beat him with Andthewinneris (5-1), who looked good capturing the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes last month at Keeneland for trainer Wayne Catalano. Jockey Flavien Prat bails to ride I’m Very Busy for his main meal ticket, Chad Brown, but top rider Joel Rosario replaces him so that doesn’t concern me.
Brunker’s choices: Andthewinneris (6), Silver Knott (4), Packs a Wahlop (2).
Mike Brunker is a former Review-Journal horse racing columnist who is attending the Breeders’ Cup and filing stories for the RJ.
