Your front-page coverage of the RJ/AARP poll showing Joe Biden with only a 2-point lead in Nevada is just one of numerous current state polls that have been taken. Reliable projections consider the results of numerous polls, which can vary considerably.
Two leading polling sources — fivethirtyeight.com and NYT Upshot, both of which include the RJ poll in their results — show a significantly better forecast for Mr. Biden.
The Upshot as of Friday has Mr. Biden leading President Donald Trump by an average of 7 points. The 538 projection is quite similar at 6.3 points. And using both the polls and other forecasting data, the 538 forecast has Mr. Biden with an 87 percent odds of winning the Nevada electors. About the same as his national Electoral College vote.
Obviously, we’ll see who is right in about two more weeks.