NFL Week 16 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN

Dionne D’Amico, Sportsmemo.com, @1stLadyofVegas

Jaguars (3-11) at Raiders (2-12)

Time: 1:25 p.m., CBS

Line/total: Raiders -1½, 40½

Analysis: Yes, the Raiders are riding a league-worst 10-game losing streak, but last week’s heartbreaking 15-9 loss at home to the Falcons will motivate them to get a well-needed victory for their loyal fans. Mac Jones led the Jaguars to 25 points in last week’s home loss to the Jets, and he will go up against a defense without Maxx Crosby. Raiders running back Sincere McCormick will miss the rest of the season, but quarterback Aidan O’Connell will be back at the helm. He has been the Raiders’ best quarterback, with a rating of 82.9. I try to stay away from late-season games without meaning to either side. The only thing that matters in this game is the Raiders saving a little face in front of their fans.

Pick: Raiders 21, Jaguars 20

Browns (3-11) at Bengals (6-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bengals -9, 47

Analysis: Cincinnati is finding its stride at the right time, coming off consecutive road victories at Dallas and Tennessee. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are sparking a flame under the rest of the Bengals’ offense. Injury-riddled Cleveland, which has been eliminated from playoff contention, is 1-6 on the road and in no position to play spoiler here. Browns quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a Bishop Gorman product, will be able to exploit the Bengals’ 31st-ranked defense. But not enough to win. The total is a little low, especially for two teams that have combined for 16 overs this season. Lots of scoring.

Pick: Bengals 34, Browns 21

Lions (12-2) at Bears (4-10)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Lions -6½, 48

Analysis: The dynamics have changed for this rematch of Detroit’s 23-20 home win over Chicago on Thanksgiving. The Bears are now eliminated from the postseason, while Detroit is playing for a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. This might be the Bears’ Super Bowl. They would love to play spoiler to their division rivals, and the Lions’ defense has been hit hard by injuries. Detroit must bounce back following last week’s 48-42 loss to Buffalo. The Lions have enough talent to do that, and have covered five of six road games this season.

Pick: Lions 34, Bears 20

Cardinals (7-7) at Panthers (3-11)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Cardinals -4½, 47

Analysis: Following a three-game slide, the Cardinals come in here with a little momentum after last week’s 30-17 victory over New England. The Cardinals need every victory they can get. Following this week, they play at the Los Angeles Rams and then return home to finish the regular season against the 49ers. So this is the easiest opponent they have left to face. Many naysayers are talking about a West Coast team traveling east. Look for Arizona’s potent rushing attack to shred Carolina’s 32nd-ranked run defense.

Pick: Cardinals 24, Panthers 19

Eagles (12-2) at Commanders (9-5)

Time: 10 a.m., Fox

Line/total: Eagles -3½, 45½

Analysis: These NFC East rivals are playing for something here, with Philadelphia gunning for the No. 1 spot in the NFC and Washington bidding for a wild-card berth. The Eagles are riding a franchise-record 10-game winning streak. But they have a few key players listed as questionable here, and with quarterback Jalen Hurts’ broken finger on his nonthrowing hand hampering him a bit, I think it’s going be a tough situation for Philly. Say what you want about the Commanders, but not since Week 1 have they been significantly outplayed.

Pick: Commanders 28, Eagles 26

Giants (2-12) at Falcons (7-7)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -8½, 43

Analysis: The big news this week is the Falcons’ benching of Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The eighth overall pick in the draft will make his first NFL start Sunday. The Giants aren’t without their quarterback issues, as Tommy DeVito suffered a concussion last week and Tim Boyle finished New York’s loss to the Ravens. Drew Lock is slated to start for the Giants, who offer very little threat on either side of the ball. But that’s too many points to lay for an inexperienced quarterback.

Pick: Falcons 20, Giants 14

Titans (3-11) at Colts (6-8)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Colts -4, 42½

Analysis: The Colts have won and covered each of the past three meetings against the division rival Titans. Indy’s playoff hopes are slim, but winning out could get them in. With remaining games against the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars, the Colts can definitely finish the regular season at 9-8. Tennessee has covered only one game since September. Yes, the Titans are going with veteran quarterback Mason Rudolph. But will that really make a difference?

Pick: Colts 24, Titans 17

Rams (8-6) at Jets (4-10)

Time: 10 a.m., CBS

Line/total: Rams -3, 46½

Analysis: Los Angeles followed a 1-4 start with wins in seven of its past nine games, with the Rams winning and covering all four of their road games during that span. After this week, the Rams head home to finish the regular season against division rivals Arizona and Seattle in matchups that will likely decide the NFC West crown. They must come out victorious this week. Poor Aaron Rodgers has to face the fact that possibly the last three games of his career will be against the Rams, Bills and Dolphins. Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse for the Jets, they can.

Pick: Rams 30, Jets 23

Vikings (12-2) at Seahawks (8-6)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Vikings -3, 42

Analysis: There is no question that whoever wins the NFC North will have earned the title. The Vikings, who have won seven straight games, face the Seahawks this week, then finish off the regular season with divisional games against the Packers and Lions. All this with home-field advantage in the playoffs still up for grabs in the NFC. This is a tough situation for Minnesota, which is playing on a short week after beating the Bears on Monday night and has to travel across the country to Seattle, where they haven’t won since 2006. Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith’s status is still up in the air, though he said he expects to play. Despite Seattle’s 3-5 home record, the betting public is siding with the Seahawks, which prompts me even more to take the visitor here.

Pick: Vikings 27, Seahawks 21

Patriots (3-11) at Bills (11-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Bills -14, 46½

Analysis: Laying double digits in the NFL is always tricky, even if it’s on one of the NFL’s best teams against one of its worst. Without anything to play for, the Patriots have thrown in the towel on the season. While Buffalo has earned the AFC East title, another victory would better their situation for the postseason. The Bills are 6-0 at home this season, but they might be in for a letdown after last week’s high-profile road win at Detroit. At the very least, they’ll take their foot off the gas once the game is in hand.

Pick: Bills 31, Patriots 21

49ers (6-8) at Dolphins (6-8)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: 49ers -1, 45

Analysis: This is one of the toughest games on the board to handicap. San Francisco and Miami had higher expectations in the preseason than their current records. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan knows Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel quite well, as McDaniel was Shanahan’s offensive coordinator in San Francisco before he took the Miami job. The Niners are expected to have their fourth starting running back in Patrick Taylor. The Dolphins have a slight edge here because they enter a little hotter and have the luxury of playing on their own field. But this could go either way.

Pick: Dolphins 21, 49ers 20

Buccaneers (8-6) at Cowboys (6-8)

Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC

Line/total: Buccaneers -4, 48½

Analysis: This might be one of the most competitive games on the board. Tampa Bay is rolling, winning four straight and covering five of six, while Dallas has won and covered three of four. The Bucs lead the NFC South, with remaining games against the Panthers and Saints. Dallas still has a slim shot at the playoffs, but would have to win out over Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and Washington. Believe it or not, Cowboys QB Cooper Rush is 8-4 as a starter, and running back Rico Dowdle became the first undrafted player with three straight 100-yard rushing games in a decade. With 18 combined overs this season and two defenses that don’t match up well against their opposing offenses, this game is going to fly over the total.

Pick: Buccaneers 30, Cowboys 28

Saints (5-9) at Packers (10-4)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN

Line/total: Packers -14, 42½

Analysis: They say patience is a virtue. How I feel about this Monday night matchup might very well depend on the outcomes of some of Sunday’s games. Green Bay can clinch a playoff spot by beating New Orleans. But there are a few results that can happen Sunday that can allow the Packers to clinch before they even take the field. Either way, this is the first time the Packers have laid double digits since September 2022. The Saints are all but eliminated from the playoffs, and rookie QB Spencer Rattler will start due to Derek Carr’s injury. Rattler is 0-3 as a starter this season. The team’s leading rusher, Alvin Kamara, is likely out as well. If Green Bay needs this victory, its offense will steamroll the Saints. But not enough to lay two touchdowns.

Pick: Packers 30, Saints 20