NFL BAD BEATS BLOG: Favorites split, as Jaguars get backdoor cover
Welcome to the first day of the NFL divisional playoffs.
Both No. 1 seeds are in action today. First, the Kansas City Chiefs, the top seed in the AFC, host the No. 4 Jacksonville Jaguars. Then, the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles welcome the No. 6 New York Giants for an NFC matchup.
Refresh this blog throughout the games to track bad beats, movement on the live betting line, halftime bets and more.
UPDATES
8:20 p.m.: That’s it for today. Favorites went 1-1 against the spread, and totals were 2-0 to the under. The Chiefs defeated the Jaguars 27-20, with Jacksonville getting the backdoor cover as 9½-point underdogs. In the late game, the Eagles routed the Giants 38-7 to easily cover as 8-point chalk.
8:11 p.m.: Here are the betting results from today’s games:
— Chiefs 27, Jaguars 20 (at Kansas City)
Full-game winners: Jaguars +9½, under 52, Chiefs -550 ML
First-half winners: Chiefs -6½, over 26½ (Chiefs 17-10)
Second-half winners: pushed Chiefs Pick (even), under 22½ (Tied 10-10)
Yards per play: Jaguars 5.8, Chiefs 5.4 (Chiefs lead 362-349 in total yards)
Turnovers: Chiefs +2 (2-0)
Biggest lead: Jaguars never led; Chiefs 17-7, 20-10, 27-17
— Eagles 38, Giants 7 (at Philadelphia)
Full-game winners: Eagles -8, under 48, Eagles -380 ML
First-half winners: Eagles -5, over 23½ (Eagles 28-0)
Second-half winners: Eagles +½, under 21 (Eagles 10-7)
Yards per play: Giants 4.4, Eagles 6.0 (Eagles lead 416-227 in total yards)
Turnovers: Eagles +1 (1-0)
Biggest lead: Giants never led; Eagles 38-7
8:06 p.m.: FINAL. Eagles 38, Giants 7. The Eagles running game churned out 268 yards to help the 8-point favorite cover without a sweat. The game stayed under the total of 48.
8:01 p.m.: Kenneth Gainwell with the final nail, running 35 yards for a touchdown. Eagles 38, Giants 7 with 1:51 to play.
7:54 p.m.: Richie James Jr. bettors just threw up in their mouths. That kind of night for the Giants.
7:49 p.m.: Jake Elliott is good from 30 yards and the Eagles lead the Giants 31-7 with 5:16 to play in the fourth quarter.
7:45 p.m.: The Eagles have chewed up half the fourth quarter already and are still driving. The Eagles are -23½ on the live spread.
7:26 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER. Eagles 28, Giants 7. The Eagles are -20½ on the live spread, total 46½.
7:12 p.m.: Never say never. Matt Breida scores on an 8-yard run and the Giants now trail the Eagles 28-7 with 6:15 to go in the third quarter. The Eagles are -20½ on the live spread, total 49½.
6:54 p.m.: The second half is underway.
6:45 p.m.: Second-half line: Giants -½, total 21.
6:40 p.m.: HALFTIME: Eagles 28, Giants 0. First-half winners: Eagles -5, over 23½. Jalen Hurts had two TD passes and ran for another, and the favorite dominated from the start. The half went over the total on Hurts’ TD run in the final minute.
6:33 p.m.: Jalen Hurts bobbles the snap and then scores on a 5-yard keeper. Miles Sanders playoff fantasy owners can’t catch a break. The Eagles lead the Giants 28-0 late in the first half. The Eagles are -27½ on the live spread, total 50½.
6:26 p.m.: Remember this bettor from earlier? They’re watching this drive closely, hoping for points.
$10K to win $336,500 🤯
Is this Nevada bettor's parlay going to cash?
Chiefs 1H ML (-300)
Eagles 1H -5 (-110)
Giants/Eagles 1H O23.5 (-120)
Bengals 1H +3 (EVEN)
49ers 1H -3 (EVEN)
Cowboys/49ers 1H O23 (-110) pic.twitter.com/07RIuF3Xwq— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) January 21, 2023
6:20 p.m.: Miles Sanders over 70½ rushing yards on his prop.
6:09 p.m.: Boston Scott finds the end zone from 3 yards after Miles Sanders did most of the heavy lifting on that drive. The Eagles lead the Giants 21-0 midway through the second quarter. The Eagles are -4000 on the live line (Giants +1400), spread -21½, total 50½.
5:49 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER. Eagles 14, Giants 0. First-quarter winners: Eagles -3, over 9½.
5:47 p.m.: Daniel Jones was +130 to throw an interception. The Eagles take over in plus territory.
5:43 p.m.: Jalen Hurts over 1½ TD passes (-125) prop hits before the first quarter is done.
5:41 p.m.: What a start for the team in green. DeVonta Smith takes the quick hitch for a 9-yard score. The Eagles lead the Giants 14-0 late in the first quarter. The Eagles are -1300 on the live line (Giants +750), spread -16½, total 51½.
5:23 p.m.: Dallas Goedert was 10-1 at the Westgate SuperBook to score the game’s first TD.
5:21 p.m.: Dallas Goedert makes a one-handed grab and turns it into a 16-yard touchdown. The Eagles strike first and lead the Giants 7-0 with 10:06 left in the first quarter.
Oh my @goedert33.
📺: #NYGvsPHI on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/W32lU4mm7c pic.twitter.com/6KgnYWBIad— NFL (@NFL) January 22, 2023
5:15 p.m.: The Giants and Eagles have kicked off in Philadelphia. Eagles get the ball first.
4:53 p.m.: Tonight’s game:
— Giants (+320) at Eagles (-8, 48, -380), 5:15 p.m.
4:50 p.m.: Here are some of the props we’ll be tracking for tonight’s Giants-Eagles game:
Team totals: Giants 20½ (under -120), Eagles 27½ (over -120).
Alternate point spreads: Giants +3½ (+180), +14½ (-260); Eagles -3½ (-210), -14½ (+220).
General props: First score will be a touchdown (yes -170/no +150); largest lead 14½ points (over -130); longest TD 41½ yards; will there be a made field goal in the first quarter (yes even/no -120); will the game go to overtime (yes +1,200/no -3,000); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (yes +270/no -330); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (yes +300/no -360); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes +110/no -130); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (yes +360/no -430); will either team score three straight times (yes -220/no +190); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -340/no +280); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes +120/no -140).
Giants props: Daniel Jones 21½ completions (under -120), 33½ attempts, 213½ passing yards, longest completion 32½ yards, 1½ TD passes (under -180), will throw an interception (yes +130/no -150), 46½ rushing yards; Saquon Barkley 94½ rushing+receiving yards, will score a TD (yes -120/no even); Darius Slayton 44½ receiving yards; Richie James Jr. 40½ receiving yards, 4½ receptions (under -125); Isaiah Hodgins 41½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +300/no -360); Graham Gano 5½ kicking points (over -140).
Eagles props: Jalen Hurts 20½ completions (over -120), 31½ attempts, 244½ passing yards, longest completion 38½ yards, 1½ TD passes (over -125), will throw an interception (yes +140/no -120); Miles Sanders 70½ rushing yards; A.J. Brown 73½ receiving yards, 5½ receptions (under -150), will score a TD (yes +120/no -140); DeVonta Smith 65½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +140/no -160); Jake Elliott 8½ kicking points (under -135).
4:34 p.m.: FINAL. Chiefs 27, Jaguars 20. Patrick Mahomes battled through an ankle injury to throw two touchdowns, but a Jaguars field goal with 25 seconds left gave the 9½-point underdogs the backdoor cover. The game stayed under the total of 52.
4:31 p.m.: There it is. Riley Patterson hits from 48 yards and the Jaguars, who are 9½-point underdogs, now trail the Chiefs 27-20 with 25 seconds to play in the fourth quarter. Onside kick coming.
4:28 p.m.: Jaguars ball with 1:04 left, looking for the backdoor cover.
4:23 p.m.: Two-minute warning. Chiefs 27, Jaguars 17.
4:18 p.m.: Jalen Watson gets the pick for the Chiefs. Trevor Lawrence was -120 to throw an interception.
4:12 p.m.: Jamal Agnew fumbles and the Chiefs recover at their own 4-yard line with 5:36 remaining. The Chiefs are -2500 on the live line (Jaguars +1100), spread -9½.
4:00 p.m.: Championship drive by the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes climbs the pocket and flings a 6-yard TD pass to Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The Chiefs lead the Jaguars 27-17 with 7:08 remaining in the fourth quarter and are covering. The Chiefs are -2000 on the live line (Jaguars +1000), spread -9½, total 50½.
3:55 p.m.: Travis Kelce over 83½ receiving yards on his prop.
3:51 p.m.: Travis Etienne Jr. was +120 to score anytime TD.
3:49 p.m.: #Duuuval hanging around. Travis Etienne Jr. slips into the end zone on a 4-yard run and the Jaguars trail the Chiefs 20-17 with 11:49 remaining. The Chiefs are -260 on the live line (Jaguars +210), spread -3½, total 46½.
3:47 p.m.: Zay Jones unofficially over 53½ receiving yards on his prop after that 37-yard reception.
3:41 p.m.: END OF THE THIRD QUARTER. Chiefs 20, Jaguars 10.
3:39 p.m.: Harrison Butker hits from 50 yards for the second time this game and the Chiefs lead the Jaguars 20-10. The Chiefs are -650 on the live line (Jaguars +450), spread -7½, total 42½.
3:18 p.m.: The teams trade punts to open the third quarter. The Chiefs are -400 on the live line (Jaguars +300), spread -6½, total 44½.
3:10 p.m.: DraftKings says the Patrick Mahomes refunds promo “Only applies to pregame and all live bets placed before half time.”
3:05 p.m.: Patrick Mahomes starts the second half for the Chiefs.
3:04 p.m.:
🚨 DIVISIONAL ROUND REFUND 🚨
We will be refunding all losing singles on Patrick Mahomes and all SGP/SGPx bets where Mahomes is the only losing selection.
Online bets only. Bets credited inside 48 hours and refunded in bonus bets. pic.twitter.com/WyniICnLc5
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) January 21, 2023
3:01 p.m.: UPDATED second-half line: Jaguars Pick (-120), total 22½.
2:53 p.m.: Second-half line: Chiefs Pick (-120), total 23½.
2:50 p.m.: HALFTIME: Chiefs 17, Jaguars 10. First-half winners: Chiefs -6½, over 26½. Travis Kelce caught two touchdowns, but Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury has changed the complexion of the game. And maybe the entire playoffs. Riley Patterson’s 41-yard field goal with 27 seconds left in the half for the Jaguars cashed the over.
2:46 p.m.: Riley Patterson slips it inside the upright from 41 yards and the Jaguars now trail the Chiefs 17-10 in the final minute of the first half. The Chiefs are -350 on the live line (Jaguars +270), spread -6½, total 50½.
2:40 p.m.: Two-minute warning. The Chiefs are -450 on the live line (Jaguars +340), spread -8½, total 49½.
2:36 p.m.: The view at Circa earlier.
First touchdown of the game 🔥#CircaLasVegas #DivisionalRound #ChiefsKingdom @CircaSports pic.twitter.com/H4XygHvk4T
— Circa Las Vegas (@CircaLasVegas) January 21, 2023
2:32 p.m.: Travis Kelce gets free and Chad Henne finds him for the easy TD, capping a 98-yard drive. The Chiefs lead the Jaguars 17-7 with 3:54 left in the second quarter. The Chiefs are -450 on the live line (Jaguars +340), spread -8½, total 50½.
2:31 p.m.: Isiah Pacheco over 50½ rushing yards on his prop.
2:25 p.m.: Travis Kelce over 6½ receptions on his prop.
2:18 p.m.: Nice punt by the Jaguars to pin the Chiefs deep. The Chiefs are -220 on the live line (Jaguars +180), spread -4½, total 49½.
2:17 p.m.: Patrick Mahomes was furious before heading to the Chiefs locker room for further evaluation. It looks like Chad Henne will take over for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
2:08 p.m.: Harrison Butker connects from 50 yards to put the Chiefs ahead of the Jaguars 10-7 early in the second quarter. With Patrick Mahomes hobbled by an ankle injury, the Chiefs are -280 on the live line (Jaguars +225), spread -5½, total 53½.
2:04 p.m.: END OF THE FIRST QUARTER. Jaguars 7, Chiefs 7. First-quarter winners: Jaguars +3½, over 10.
2 p.m.: Patrick Mahomes is in a lot of pain after getting rolled up on by Arden Key. He’s limping badly.
1:55 p.m.: Kirk was +185 to score a TD.
1:53 p.m.: Christian Kirk lines up in the backfield and beats the coverage for a 10-yard touchdown. The Jaguars and Chiefs are tied 7-7 with 5:04 left in the first quarter. The Chiefs are -450 on the live line (Jaguars +340), spread -9½, total 58½.
1:47 p.m.: Travis Kelce was 5-1 at the Westgate SuperBook to score the first TD.
1:45 p.m.: Patrick Mahomes fired passes from all angles that drive, the last one to Travis Kelce for an 8-yard touchdown. The Chiefs lead the Jaguars 7-0 after a 12-play, 83-yard drive. The Chiefs are -1000 on the live line (Jaguars +625), spread -14½, total 52½.
1:36 p.m.: Three-and-out to start for the Jaguars.
1:33 p.m.: The Jaguars and Chiefs are underway in Kansas City. The Chiefs closed -9½, total of 52 with some wet weather expected as the game goes along.
1:25 p.m.: Update from Station Casinos:
STN Sports Saturday Outlook 🏈
By percentage of tickets:
-61% on KC -points
-66% on the over
-57% on Giants +points
-71% on the over— Station Casinos Sports Betting (@STNSportsApp) January 21, 2023
1:22 p.m.: The latest from BetMGM:
A bettor at @BetMGM wagered $500,000 @Jaguars +10.5 (-125).
Bet would win $400,000. 🤑
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) January 21, 2023
Updated Chiefs-Jaguars betting at @BetMGM@Chiefs open -9.5, no movement
▪️ 54% of bets, 43% of money on KCTotal open 51.5, now 52
▪️ 56% of bets, 52% of money on Over@Jaguars open +310, now +375
▪️ 61% of bets, 20% of money on Jags— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) January 21, 2023
1:19 p.m.: A couple of trends worth noting:
The Chiefs are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six games against the Jaguars 👀 pic.twitter.com/aRJAYT8kBm
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) January 21, 2023
Doug Pederson is 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU as an underdog in the playoffs 😯 pic.twitter.com/o3yz1S1zPc
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) January 21, 2023
1:15 p.m.: This bettor at Caesars Sportsbook will be watching the first half closely:
$10K to win $336,500 🤯
Is this Nevada bettor's parlay going to cash?
Chiefs 1H ML (-300)
Eagles 1H -5 (-110)
Giants/Eagles 1H O23.5 (-120)
Bengals 1H +3 (EVEN)
49ers 1H -3 (EVEN)
Cowboys/49ers 1H O23 (-110) pic.twitter.com/07RIuF3Xwq— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) January 21, 2023
1:05 p.m.: Here is today’s schedule:
— Jaguars (+425) at Chiefs (-9½, 52, -550), 1:30 p.m.
— Giants (+320) at Eagles (-8, 48, -380), 5:15 p.m.
1 p.m.: Here are some of the props we’ll be tracking today for the Jaguars-Chiefs game:
Team totals: Jaguars 21½ (under -120), Chiefs 31½ (under -120).
Alternate point spreads: Jaguars +3½ (+210), +14½ (-200); Chiefs -3½ (-250), -14½ (+175).
General props: First score will be a touchdown (yes -190/no +170); largest lead 14½ points (over -150); longest TD 44½ yards; will there be a made field goal in the first quarter (yes even/no -120); will the game go to overtime (yes +1,200/no -3,000); will there be a defensive or special teams TD (yes +270/no -330); will there be a successful 2-point conversion (yes +270/no -330); will both teams make 33-yard or longer field goals (yes +110/no -130); will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter (yes +375/no -450); will either team score three straight times (yes -240/no +200); will there be a score in the final two minutes of the first half (yes -370/no +310); will the game be tied again after 0-0 (yes +120/no -140).
Jaguars props: Trevor Lawrence 23½ completions (over -120), 38½ attempts (under -120), 254½ passing yards, longest completion 35½ yards, 1½ TD passes (over -120), will throw an interception (yes -120/no even); Travis Etienne Jr. 89½ rushing+receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +120/no -140); Christian Kirk 64½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +185/no -215); Zay Jones 53½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +230/no -270); Evan Engram 47½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +220/no -260); Riley Patterson 6½ kicking points.
Chiefs props: Patrick Mahomes 26½ completions (over -120), 39½ attempts, 307½ passing yards, longest completion 38½ yards, 2½ TD passes, will throw an interception (yes even/no -120), 26½ rushing yards; Isiah Pacheco 50½ rushing yards; Jerick McKinnon 62½ rushing+receiving yards; JuJu Smith-Schuster 55½ receiving yards, will score a TD (yes +175/no -200); Travis Kelce 83½ receiving yards, 6½ receptions, will score a TD (yes -155/no +135); Harrison Butker 8½ kicking points (under -120).
Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.