Handicapper fades Nebraska in season opener vs. Northwestern

Nebraska football coach Scott Frost added a few degrees Fahrenheit to his already hot seat when he said last week his offensive linemen vomit 15 to 20 times per practice.

Frost later clarified the comments, but perhaps no coach in the country could use a season-opening win more than the Cornhuskers’ fifth-year boss.

Nebraska has not reached a bowl game under Frost and opens its season Saturday against Big Ten foe Northwestern in a neutral-site game at Dublin, Ireland.

Handicapper Paul Stone (@PaulStoneSports) recommends fading Nebraska, a 13-point favorite at Circa Sports and William Hill.

“You have a first-time quarterback, a first-time offensive coordinator, a first-time player starting at center and a left tackle who only started two games last year,” Stone said of Nebraska. “Those are key positions that you look at, and I think in the opener you’re talking about 13 points, and a team in the favorite’s role has to score a number of points to cover nearly a two-touchdown spread. I like Northwestern.”

The Cornhuskers are coming off a 3-9 season when all of their losses were by single digits. They will feature several new faces on offense, led by quarterback Casey Thompson, a transfer from Texas.

According to Stone, Nebraska is 8-15 against the spread as the betting favorite in Frost’s four seasons. That includes a 30-22 loss to Illinois in Week Zero last season.

Northwestern also went 3-9 straight-up in 2021 and wasn’t competitive in many of those games. The Wildcats lost 56-7 to Nebraska when the teams met last season, but Stone expects the revenge factor to favor Northwestern.

“In the 10 seasons prior to 2021, Northwestern is 24-9 against the spread as an away underdog,” Stone said. “Historically under (coach Pat) Fitzgerald, they have traveled well in the underdog role.”

Most handicappers are steering clear of Saturday’s schedule with the limited number of lined games. Here are two more Week Zero games to watch:

— Vanderbilt (-8½) at Hawaii — The visiting Commodores opened -6½, and the number continues to climb. There was a -9½ available at Circa Sports on Thursday afternoon.

That’s too many points to pass up for handicapper Dana Lane (@Danalanesports), who likes the underdog to cover in Timmy Chang’s first game as coach of the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii has won seven straight home openers.

“I think they have a chance to win this game outright,” Lane said. “You’re going to know real early in this game whether you have a live ticket by their ability to run the ball.”

Vanderbilt returns 15 starters from a 2-10 team, but hasn’t won a season opener outright since 2018.

“To me, I just think it’s a really tough ask to cover eight points, going across five time zones,” Lane said.

— North Texas at Texas-El Paso (Pick) — Lane leans toward UTEP in a game that has seen two-way action from bettors after North Texas opened anywhere from -1½ to -2.

The Mean Green are coming off a 6-6 season but won the past five meetings with UTEP. The home team has covered six straight in the series, according to Lane.

“I think UTEP is a team that’s emerging,” Lane said. “Not anything on a national level, but way better than we used to think about them.”

Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on Twitter.