Raiders over/under proposition predictions for 2021 season

Review-Journal reporters Vinny Bonsignore, Adam Hill, Sam Gordon, Heidi Fang and columnist Ed Graney make over/under predictions on 10 Raiders proposition wagers for the season. Keep in mind, the regular season is now 17 games in the NFL:

Wins by Raiders: 7.5

Bonsignore: Over — The Raiders are too good not to win at least nine or 10 games.

Hill: Over — Even with the changes on the offensive line, this team should be able to score plenty of points. If the defense can just be incrementally better, winning nine or 10 games isn’t out of the question.

Gordon: Over — The schedule is challenging, but an extra game and improvement on defense should help the Raiders exceed this total.

Graney: Over — The Raiders finish 8-9 because they are a combined 40-40 since 2016. Because until proven otherwise, .500 (or a game under in this case) is what they are.

Fang: Over — My projections call for the Raiders to win about nine games this season.

Division Finish: 2.5

Bonsignore: Under — The Raiders were three late-game defensive stops away from winning 11 games and got better. I believe they are the second-best team in the division.

Hill: Over — If I had to pick a spot for the Raiders to finish, it would probably be second to Kansas City. But there are too many variables. With the Broncos and Chargers figuring to finish with right around the same record as the Raiders, there’s too much value on the over.

Gordon: Under — The Chiefs are clearly the class of the division, but the Raiders upgraded a roster that finished second last year. But the Chargers made improvements as well and could contend for second place.

Graney: Over — Kansas City wins it and Justin Herbert gets the Chargers second place because he once knew UNLV coach Marcus Arroyo. Or at least Arroyo says so.

Fang: Under — This team is capable of finishing second in the AFC West. The only team I think can push them for that spot is the Chargers.

Derek Carr passing yards: 4,075.5

Bonsignore: Over — With an added game, all he needs to do is stay healthy to eclipse 4,0000 yards again.

Hill: Over — Only three quarterbacks started all 16 games last season and failed to reach this number. With one extra game and plenty of weapons, Carr should have no trouble eclipsing this mark.

Gordon: Over — Carr had a career year last year and could be even better this season with another year of continuity with a corps of pass catchers that includes Darren Waller, one of the best players in the NFL.

Graney: Over — His brother David — with a straight face — mentioned linebacker Javin White and Hall of Fame in the same sentence. The pick has nothing to do with this number. I just love buffoonery.

Fang: Over — Carr has hovered around 4,050 in the last three seasons and there’s a 17th game to be played.

Derek Carr TD passes: 26.5

Bonsignore: Over — The Raiders have made it a priority to score more touchdowns in the red zone, so expect more pass attempts from Carr in that part of the field. Carr should easily throw 27 or more touchdown passes.

Hill: Under — Last year marked the first time he went over this number in four seasons and he only finished with 27. Carr will put up plenty of impressive numbers this year, but he doesn’t figure to be in as many shootouts with an improved defense.

Gordon: Over — He’s exceeded this mark three times in his career, including last season. Expect the Raiders to be efficient through the air again.

Graney: Over — Twitter reports promised he threw 156 in two days of practice against the Rams, so I’m guessing he flies over this total in 17 games.

Fang: Over — I expect Henry Ruggs, Foster Moreau and Bryan Edwards to be bigger contributors in the red zone, which will lead to more Carr touchdowns.

Josh Jacobs rushing yards: 1050.5

Bonsignore: Under — But I think with Kenyan Drake and a rebuilt offensive line Jacobs actually has a more efficient season.

Hill: Over — I fully expect Jacobs to get a healthy dose of work on the ground between the 20s this year, especially with Kenyan Drake taking on most of the backfield duties in the passing game.

Gordon: Under — An accomplished runner in Kenyan Drake joins the backfield, giving the Raiders two reliable backs. I expect Jacobs to get a brunt of the workload, but Drake will get his fair share of carries as well.

Graney: Under — I’m thinking Joaquin Phoenix cuts into this number. Or maybe Kenyan Drake. Or Lynn Bowden. Too soon? Take your pick of Jokers.

Fang: Under — Kenyan Drake’s presence will cut into Jacobs’ workload just enough to keep him under this total, with Jacobs perhaps being more effective with fewer carries.

Josh Jacobs rushing TDs: 8.5

Bonsignore: Under — I think the Raiders are more determined than ever to be more creative in the red zone.

Hill: Under — Coach Jon Gruden said he wants to run the ball more in goal-to-go situations in order to find more success in the red zone. He didn’t say who would get the carries.

Gordon: Over — Jacobs is a bruising, physical runner that could still operate as the team’s primary goal-line back.

Graney: Over —And, given this is the Raiders, at least .5 of them will come in the red zone.

Fang: Over — With Kenyan Drake in the mix, it’ll be hard to figure who we’ll see more of in goal-line situations, but I think Jacobs will still get fed plenty inside the 10.

Darren Waller receiving yards: 1,100.5

Bonsignore: Over — This is a big-time over.

Hill: Over — Honestly, health is the only thing that comes close to making me nervous about this pick. If he plays the full season, Waller is too good at too many routes at all levels of the defense to not have another insanely productive season.

Gordon: Over — Waller is in the prime of his career entering his age-29 season and is clearly the team’s top receiving threat and one of the NFL’s best pass catchers.

Graney: Under — Yes, he is more a primary option for quarterback Derek Carr than a mouse to a rattlesnake at dinner time, but more offensive options will keep this total under.

Fang: Over — Carr puts his faith in Waller in most situations an is still his go-to receiver.

Henry Ruggs receiving yards: 750.5

Bonsignore: Over — I think Ruggs doubles up the targets, catches and yards.

Hill: Under — This should be a much better season for Ruggs, but there are suddenly a lot of mouths to feed on offense and he’s going to have to be more than a deep-ball threat to make me look over this number.

Gordon: Over — The second-year speedster should play a bigger role within the offense this year and has 17 games to eclipse this total.

Graney: Under — He made one catch as a rookie anyone remembers. It’s a (really) long trek from 453 receiving yards to 300-plus more.

Fang: Under — I have Ruggs coming in at about 700 yards, just shy of this number.

Maxx Crosby sacks: 7.5

Bonsignore: Over — Crosby has been a beast in practice and looks to be in the best shape of his life.

Hill: Under — The defensive line is so much deeper than it has been the past few seasons, which should translate to more help and fewer reps for Crosby. He may have a better season, but not put up the same numbers.

Gordon: Over — Improvements across the defensive line should help Crosby, who is healthy after playing last year with an injured shoulder and still leads the 2019 draft class in sacks.

Graney: Over — I’m not confident at all this, but for karma’s sake, I’d rather type this dude’s name on deadline far more than that of Yannick Ngakoue.

Fang: Over — He is hungry and healthy and secured seven sacks in a season in which he was injured and playing through a broken hand and torn labrum. Easy call.

Points per game allowed: 26.5

Bonsignore: Under — There is no way this can be anything other than under if the Raiders are to make a playoff push.

Hill: Under — Only the worst of the worst defenses surrender this many points on average each year. While the Raiders fit that description last year, Gus Bradley’s system should better utilize some of the key players’ strengths.

Gordon: Under — Don’t expect the Raiders to be the 1985 Bears defensively, but improvements on the defensive line and in the secondary — coupled with the addition of defensive coordinator Gus Bradley — should spark some growth on the defensive side of the ball.

Graney: Under — You want a miracle the size of turning water into wine? In the last five seasons, the usually defenseless Raiders have allowed an average of more than 25 points just twice.

Fang: Under — Gus Bradley seems to be the defensive coach whisperer the Raiders young talent needed and their ability to work as a collective unit and force turnovers is showing early.