Time ripe to bet on UFC 249 main event

In most sports, it pays for underdog bettors to wait until the day of the event to place their wager at the best price.

“Ninety-nine percent of the time, that’s the case,” veteran UFC handicapper Lou Finocchiaro said. “Bettors bet late and they bet favorites. That’s what happens in the UFC and that’s going to create value on some of the underdogs.”

UFC 249 is still a week away, scheduled for May 9 in Jacksonville, Florida. But Finocchiaro, an underdog player, believes the time is ripe to place a bet on underdog Justin Gaethje (21-2-0) in the main event against Tony Ferguson (26-3-0).

Ferguson is a -180 favorite at William Hill over Gaethje (+160) in the interim lightweight title fight.

“There are a couple compelling reasons that number should be gobbled up right now,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou).

One reason Finocchiaro likes Gaethje is that he has had ample time to prepare for the fight, which was originally scheduled for April 18. Gaethje was a late replacement for Khabib Nurmagomedov as Ferguson’s opponent.

“For the fight to occur April 18 would’ve been a decent advantage for Ferguson in that Gaethje was arriving for the fight with only two weeks to prepare,” Finocchiaro said. “But with that fight date canceled and moved to May 9, it created another three weeks for Gaethje to close the training gap, which he clearly has addressed.

“Gaethje should be handicapped as a closer and more competitive position to Ferguson. Not only because he got a full camp to prepare now, but Ferguson has to mentally overcome the disappointment of getting his dream fight with Nurmagomedov called off for the sixth time.

“On top of that, Ferguson went ahead and decided to cut the necessary weight and make weight for the April 18 bout even though he wasn’t required to do that. That is a tremendous strain on a person’s body. Ferguson is now 36 years old and while it displays a large heart, I don’t think it displays a lot of fight IQ.

“He’s in every position not to compete at his best level come May 9. This fight should be lined Ferguson -120 or -125. If you’re going to give me Gaethje at (+160), I’ll take it now because I do believe this number will go down.”

‘The Karate Hottie’

Finocchiaro is leaning toward three other plays on the UFC 249 card but will wait for better prices.

“There’s a couple ‘dogs I am looking at. But I’m going to let them ripen to see if I can get a little more value on them,” he said.

One of his leans is on Michelle Waterson, aka “The Karate Hottie,” a +135 underdog to Carla Esparza (-155) in a strawweight bout on the undercard.

“In this fight, the wrong fighter could be favored,” he said. “Waterson is the taller and longer fighter here. I think she’s the more complete fighter and she should be favored.”

Over time

He’s also leaning slightly toward Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+240) over Francis Ngannou (-280) and over 1½ rounds (-125) in their heavyweight fight on the main card.

“More important than the side is the over in that fight,” Finocchiaro said. “The only chance Rozenstruick has is to take Ngannou deeper into the fight and tire him out.

“Everyone is hoping for a knockout and quick strike, but I just don’t think it’s going to come to fruition in that fight. I see some respect in the first round. Rozenstruick is the smaller man, but he’ll have speed, precision and quickness as allies and he’s going to need time.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.