Improving Tennessee could expose Alabama-Birmingham

Schools with upcoming head coaching searches would do well to consider Alabama-Birmingham’s Bill Clark.

He isn’t deeply connected in the coaching community, but his record speaks for itself.

UAB shut down its football program after the 2014 season and didn’t play a game for nearly two seasons. This is not an SEC team full of tradition. This is a team that plays home games at “The Old Gray Lady” of Legion Field.

It should have been impossible for UAB to make a bowl in 2017, but Clark led that team to an 8-5 record, and then won the C-USA championship in 2018.

A large group of seniors departed, yet UAB is 6-1 this season. Here’s the list of teams it has beaten: Alabama State, Akron, South Alabama, Rice, Texas-San Antonio and Old Dominion.

UAB is 13-2-1 against the spread at home and 10-8 ATS on the road since the relaunch. That includes losses at Florida (36-7 as +10) and at Texas A&M (41-20 as +16).

Tennessee would have four consecutive covers if not for an inadvertent block by an official during a Georgia fourth-quarter fumble return.

I don’t consider this an overlook spot for the Vols, which suffered embarrassment after losing to Georgia State. Tennessee needs a win to work toward bowl eligibility (and to collect emotional capital for coach Jeremy Pruitt).

Take Tennessee minus-13.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

MEMPHIS (-6) over Southern Methodist: At 8-0, playing in the respectable AAC, the Mustangs have a chance to become the Group of 5 representative in the New Year’s Six bowls. However, with a second-order win total of 5.7, they’ve been extremely fortunate. The Tigers, at home in a prime-time game, have had horrible turnover luck in three consecutive games, including in a loss to Temple that included a controversial call. According to SP+, Memphis’ offense has a sizable advantage (No. 12 vs. SMU’s No. 50 defense) and Memphis’ special teams has a gigantic one (No. 6 vs. No. 111). I rate Memphis as five points better on a neutral field.

Virginia Tech (+17½) over NOTRE DAME: The Fighting Irish just suffered a second loss, destroying their College Football Playoff hopes. Notre Dame is 1-8 ATS as a favorite after suffering its second loss of the season since 2014. Virginia Tech, off a bye, is playing better on offense since Hendon Hooker took over for Ryan Willis. At 6-foot-4, 228 pounds, Hendon can also run the ball. Notre Dame just allowed Michigan to rush for 303 yards.

INDIANA (-10½) over Northwestern: The Wildcats’ results far exceeded their ability in 2018. Pat Fitzgerald is the most reliable overperformer in the sport now that Bill Snyder has retired. I’ve been hesitant to play against him. But Northwestern’s offense averages 0.8 points per possession, last in the country. Put aside a 30-point outburst against UNLV and the Wildcats have scored 45 points and allowed three defensive touchdowns in six games. Northwestern lost to Ohio State and Iowa by a combined 72-3, and has to travel to Indiana to face a Hoosiers team that finally got bowl eligible.

Arkansas State (-2) over LOUISIANA-MONROE: The Red Wolves played SMU (Week 1) and Georgia (Week 3) while coach Blake Anderson was dealing with the Aug. 20 death of his wife Wendy. Arkansas State otherwise is 4-2 straight up, scoring an average of 38.3. Louisiana-Monroe, which also had a “throw you off the scent” game early (a near upset of Florida State), has allowed 37.3 points per game (123rd) and 6.7 yards per play (123rd). Arkansas State’s defense isn’t the Steel Curtain, but it should break serve a few times.

Last Week: 2-3

Season: 24-19-2

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Christopher Smith of AL.com, NOLA.com and MyBookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.