NFL betting breakdown — Week 8
Alex B. Smith, axsmithsports.com
Giants (2-5) at Lions (2-3-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Lions -6, 49½
Analysis: Detroit has been cashing tickets for ATS backers with a 4-2 record, but this game looks prime for the Giants to get back into the win column. RB Saquon Barkley, who picked up 72 yards last week, is going against a Lions rush defense yielding 5 yards per carry and 133 yards per game.
By the numbers: The Giants are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog against non-division opponents.
Pick: Giants 27, Lions 17
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Buccaneers (2-4) at Titans (3-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Titans -2½, 45½
Analysis: QB Ryan Tannehill will get his second start for the Titans in place of Marcus Mariota as they take on the Buccaneers and QB Jameis Winston. These clubs have fairly decent defenses, but their offensive attacks have been spotty to say the least.
By the numbers: The Titans have failed to cover in four of their last six games. … The Buccaneers have lost 17 of their last 21 road games straight up.
Pick: Titans 23, Buccaneers 20
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Chargers (2-5) at Bears (3-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bears -3½, 41
Analysis: The locals (and yours truly) are getting restless with the Bears inept offense between QB Mitch Trubisky looking lost and coach Matt Nagy’s conservative play calling. To make matters worse, the Bears top-flight defense is showing signs of fatigue from having to carry the team.
By the numbers: The Bears are 2-5 ATS this season. … The Chargers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 road games.
Pick: Bears 19, Chargers 17
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Seahawks (5-2) at Falcons (1-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Seahawks -7, 51½
Analysis: Just when it seemed like things couldn’t get worse for the Falcons after their 37-10 blowout loss to the Rams, they take on another tough NFC West club in Seattle and might be without starting QB Matt Ryan. That leaves veteran Matt Schaub to face a Seahawks team that had scored 27 or more points in five straight games before losing 30-16 to Baltimore at home last week. Pete Carroll’s gang will be fired up to bounce back on the road where they are 3-0 straight up and ATS this season.
By the numbers: Seattle is 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. … Atlanta is on an 0-5 straight up and ATS skid.
Pick: Seahawks 34, Falcons 13
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Jets (1-5) at Jaguars (3-4)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Jaguars -6, 40½
Analysis: The Jets head down to Jacksonville after a spooky 33-0 blowout against New England on Monday night that had QB Sam Darnold “seeing ghosts.” He threw four interceptions and lost a fumble in the lopsided defeat. The Jaguars have a chance to get to .500 with a win here before heading to their “second home” in London next weekend.
By the numbers: The Jaguars are 4-2 ATS in their last six games, but are 1-5 ATS in games before traveling to London.
Pick: Jaguars 26, Jets 14
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Eagles (3-4) at Bills (5-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Bills -1½, 41
Analysis: The Bills haven’t lost a regular-season game to a team not named the New England Patriots since Dec. 9, 2018. I wouldn’t be shocked to see that streak continue against a banged up Eagles squad that has lost in back-to-back blowouts and has given up 400 or more yards in three of the last four games.
By the numbers: Buffalo is on a 6-2 ATS run dating back to late last season. … Philadelphia is 2-6 ATS against the Bills.
Pick: Bills 31, Eagles 20
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Bengals (0-7) vs. Rams (4-3), at Wembley Stadium, London
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Rams -13, 47
Analysis: Apologies to NFL fans in the United Kingdom who keep having to see at least one bad team nearly every game that we send across the pond. The winless Bengals take the pitch to play a Rams squad that picked up a nice win in Atlanta last week in which newly acquired CB Jalen Ramsay snagged an interception.
By the numbers: The Bengals are 6-2 in their last eight games as underdogs.
Pick: Rams 37, Bengals 10
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Cardinals (3-3-1) at Saints (6-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Saints -11½, 48
Analysis: Don’t be fooled by a three-game win streak by the Cardinals, who beat mid-range teams like the Giants, Falcons and Bengals. Instead, buy into this real deal Saints squad, which has won and covered five straight with backup QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater, who’s a heavy favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year, leads New Orleans along with a defense that has held teams to less than 100 rushing yards in four consecutive games.
By the numbers: New Orleans is 17-3 straight up in its last 20 home games and is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Arizona.
Pick: Saints 38, Cardinals 16
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Broncos (2-5) at Colts (4-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/Total: Colts -5, 42
Analysis: Even after knocking Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes out of the game with a knee injury, the Broncos still dropped a 30-6 decision to Kansas City last Thursday. The extra days of prep won’t matter against a Colts team that is on an 8-2 ATS run and has won eight of its last 11 meetings with Denver.
By the numbers: Denver is 3-8 straight up and 2-9 ATS in its last 11 meetings with Indianapolis. … The Colts are 8-1 straight up in their last nine games at home.
Pick: Colts 28, Broncos 20
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Raiders (3-3) at Texans (4-3)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Texans -6, 51½
Analysis: Raiders fans can’t be thrilled with what happened last week as Green Bay won in a blowout thanks to a masterful performance from QB Aaron Rodgers. Now the Raiders face a tough Houston squad that has played in nothing but close contests all season, with six of its seven games having been decided by a touchdown or less.
By the numbers: Houston is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 home games, but 13-6 ATS in its last 19 against non-division opponents.
Pick: Texans 23, Raiders 20
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Panthers (4-2) at 49ers (6-0)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/Total: 49ers -4½, 41
Analysis: One of the last remaining undefeated teams in the NFL has a tough test at home as the 49ers host a Carolina club coming off a bye week. Panthers QB Kyle Allen has been electric since taking over for the injured Cam Newton, going 4-0 straight up and ATS with a TD/INT ratio of 9-0. The San Francisco defense has been one of the league’s best bailing out QB Jimmy Garoppolo and the offense in a 9-0 slopfest win against Washington. Even after adding WR Emmanuel Sanders in a trade, this looks like the week we see a loss in the Bay Area.
By the numbers: San Francisco has six wins against opponents with a combined record of 11-28. … Carolina has covered seven of the last eight meetings with the 49ers.
Pick: Panthers 27, 49ers 24
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Browns (2-4) at Patriots (7-0)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/Total: Patriots -10½, 43½
Analysis: The Patriots are virtually perfect on both sides of the football. New England forced five turnovers in Monday’s destruction of the Jets, bringing its turnover margin to a league-best plus-14. The Browns have allowed 20 or more points in five of their six games.
By the numbers: Patriots are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games, and the under is 12-3 in their last 15 regular-season games.
Pick: Patriots 31, Browns 7
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Packers (6-1) at Chiefs (5-2)
Time: 5:20 p.m.
Line/Total: Packers -5½, 48
Analysis: Life without Mahomes begins for the Chiefs, and now they have to take on Rodgers and the Packers, who have continued to find ways to win even when they face different forms of adversity. Matt Moore simply isn’t a quarterback I want to put money on unless it’s a preseason tilt.
By the numbers: Kansas City is 12-5 straight up in its last 17 home games … Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.
Pick: Packers 27, Chiefs 17
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Monday
Dolphins (0-6) at Steelers (2-4)
Time: 5:15 p.m.
Line/Total: Steelers -14, 43½
Analysis: The Dolphins’ “Tanking Tour” hits Pittsburgh, where QB Mason Rudolph looks to return from injury. The Steelers are 3-0-1 in their last four games since QB Roethlisberger got hurt, and they should be able to name their score here at home.
By the numbers: Pittsburgh is 26-5 straight up and 21-10 ATS in 31 games on Monday Night Football.
Pick: Steelers 30, Dolphins 6
