What happens if Ron Paul actually wins?

Before we leave the subject, while the supporters of Texas Rep. Ron Paul bask in their victorious takeover of the Nevada Republican Party convention, let’s ponder a question.

What if Paul wins?

Yes, it’s an extreme longshot, but one Paul fans vigorously embrace. It would require supreme organizational skill, incredible lobbying and deft changes to the rules allocating delegate votes. But what if Paul fans descend on the Republican National Convention and replicate their Nevada success?

What if Ron Paul, not Mitt Romney, becomes the Republican nominee?

We know what will happen if Romney wins the nomination but goes on to lose to President Barack Obama in the general election. Conservatives will lament that when you nominate a moderate candidate, you lose. They’ll cite Gerald Ford, Bob Dole and John McCain as examples.

And they’ll say over and over again that if only the country had nominated a conservative, things would have been different. The base would have been excited. Disaffected conservatives would have come to the polls. Voters would respond to a message of fiscal sanity and frugal foreign policy.

But is that really the way it would go?

Let’s say Paul’s people managed to pull off an upset victory for their man, a victory Paul has sought since 1988, when he ran for the presidency as the Libertarian nominee.

The reverberations would be intense, overshadowing the Democratic National Convention that’s scheduled the week after the GOP meets in Tampa.

It wouldn’t exactly be a perfect victory for conservatives, either. While Paul is pro-life, he’s not the type to want to ban gay marriage or institute school prayer. He’s a non-interventionist, which will turn off national-defense conservatives and private military contractors who turn conflict into coin.

But Paul certainly says a lot that would make conservatives cheer, not least of which is his call to cut $1 trillion from the budget in his first year. Like Ronald Reagan before him, Paul calls for eliminating whole Cabinet agencies. But unlike Reagan, Paul would actually try to do it.

So with Paul as the nominee, a surprised and probably unsteady Republican Party would (mostly) get behind him in a quest to unseat Obama.

Would Paul really stand a chance?

Or is it more likely he’d become the victim of the Obama campaign. His economic views would be pilloried in negative ads claiming that, in Paul’s economy, you’d suffer not only recession but a monetary crisis as the would-be president sought to restore a currency pegged to something of actual value. (Even Paul acknowledges some short-term pain were his proposals to be implemented.)

Would Paul win? Or is it more likely he’d go out like Barry Goldwater losing overwhelmingly to Lyndon Johnson in 1964?

We know what Democrats would say then: We tried it your way, conservatives. You got your candidate, and he got his campaign. And you couldn’t beat a guy who many of you believe isn’t even a bona fide U.S. citizen, who many in your camp risibly call a socialist. The American people have spoken (this, Democrats would say, no matter how close the actual numbers were). And the voters said they prefer to do it our way.

What would conservatives say then? That Paul was a failed messenger (when he’s actually the clearest, most consistent conservative on the national stage)? That it wasn’t a fair fundraising fight? That the American people have lived under a virtual one-party duopoly for so long, they couldn’t be bothered to hear the truth? The people have spoken, the bastards?

One thing we know the Republicans won’t say: We gave it our best shot, but we were wrong, and Obama was right.

Steve Sebelius is a Review-Journal political columnist and author of the blog SlashPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter (@SteveSebelius) or reach him at 387-5276 or SSebelius@reviewjournal.com.