Voter registration numbers good news for Democrats

The voter registration drive is over. Now it’s time to get voters to the polls.

But before we do, the final voter-registration numbers – and the stories behind them – bear a closer look.

First: Clark County reigns supreme. At 851,803 active voters, we have more than twice as many voters as the rest of the state combined. And that includes our closest competitor, Washoe County, which boasts a paltry 241,459.

With those kind of numbers should come serious political clout: Clark County voters have enough people to swing almost any statewide ballot initiative, to field the largest and most powerful delegation to the state Legislature and to have a right to expect the vast majority of the state’s tax spending.

Sadly, there’s a fairly big crack in Clark County’s numbers: 390,277 of us are Democrats, while 262,806 are Republicans. Those differences matter less in rural and Northern Nevada, where they recognize that regional interests must trump politics if Clark County is to be held at bay. If Clark County voters and their representatives ever learn that lesson, they will be unstoppable in Carson City.

Second: Seniors comprise the largest bloc of voters by age group, and they are equally divided between Democrats (117,298) and Republicans (117,374). In every other age bracket, Democrats hold a numerical advantage over Republicans.

Third: Democrats have done a far, far better job registering voters this year than Republicans, sometimes registering twice as many voters in a given month. That’s led to a mammoth active voter advantage here in Clark County of 127,471, and even a narrowing of the Republican edge in Washoe County, where Democrats lag the GOP by just 1,169 voters.

But what’s even more surprising is that nonpartisan voters – that’s what we call independents here in Nevada – have out-registered Republicans. That’s right: In every single month since February, more voters have signed up as “nonpartisan” than have signed up as Republicans. And that’s true notwithstanding the fact that Republicans were actually trying to register voters, while nobody was knocking on doors or setting up tables outside grocery stores seeking to add nonpartisans to the rolls.

Fourth: In five key state Senate races, Democrats hold a comfortable registration advantage that – if history is any guide – could allow them to capture at least one Republican seat and hold on to two others.

According to state Sen. Mo Denis, the Democratic leader, Democrats have always won their races if they enjoyed a 2.3-percentage-point (or greater) advantage over their GOP foes. Currently, in Senate District 5, the advantage is 5.4 percentage points; in Senate District 6, it’s 7.1 percentage points; and in Senate District 9, it’s 8.1 percentage points. (That last district is especially important, in that it would represent a flip from Republican to Democrat.)

Up in Reno, in the hard-fought Senate District 15 race between state Sen. Greg Brower, the Republican, and former state Sen. Sheila Leslie, the Democrat, registration changes have narrowed the Republican advantage to 1.2 percentage points. And in the new Senate District 18, Republicans enjoy an advantage of just 0.6 percentage points.

“They like the message,” Denis said of new voters. “They like what we’re trying to do.”

Despite the numbers, Senate Republican leader Michael Roberson’s confidence has not wavered: He says exit polling shows his candidates doing well. “We feel very good with where we’re at. We’re going to win all five of those races,” he predicted.

Numbers aren’t always destiny, of course. But it’s undeniable that Democrats’ hard work has paid off in the registration. If their get-out-the-vote operation is as good, Nov. 6 will be a very good day for them.

Steve Sebelius is a Review-Journal political columnist and author of the blog SlashPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter (@SteveSebelius) or reach him at (702) 387-5276 or ssebelius@reviewjournal.com.