Sandoval’s favor for Romney: support!

Guess which popular Nevada political figure supports Mitt Romney for president? Gov. Brian Sandoval, that’s who!

Yes, Sandoval endorsed Romney officially after he’d all but won the Republican nomination. Sandoval’s first choice for the White House – Texas Gov. Rick Perry – astounded the nation when he was unable to remember how much of the federal government he wanted to eliminate.

Yes, Sandoval attended the Republican National Convention in Tampa in August, and he uttered the obligatory endorsement in a speech that was reviewed more as workmanlike than inspiring.

“From personal experience, I can tell you what will help states like Nevada and families like mine; elect the team that understands how to get America working again. Send Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan to the White House!”

And yes, Sandoval even showed up at a campaign rally with Romney one time, although Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki – a Romney guy from way back – has been on the campaign trail far more than Sandoval.

In fact, the criticism of Sandoval had begun to ramp up. In Sunday’s Las Vegas Sun, political editor Anjeanette Damon penned a piece that quoted Republican consultant Robert Uithoven openly wishing for Sandoval to lend more of his personal political clout to the Romney effort.

On Tuesday, Sandoval did just that, appearing in his first Romney TV ad.

“Over the past four years, Nevadans have faced extraordinary challenges,” Sandoval says in the ad. “Our friends and neighbors have struggled. But President Obama’s policies haven’t helped. They’ve hurt us, and they’re holding us back. We can do better.”

Adds the governor: “I’m confident that Nevada’s best days are still ahead. And as president, Mitt Romney will help lead the way. Join me in voting for Mitt Romney for president.”

If only everybody was as confident.

R&R Partners’ Pete Ernaut, a former Republican lawmaker and one of the state’s top lobbyists and consultants, said last week on the “Nevada NewsMakers” television program that President Obama would win the state by a margin of between 1 and 3 percentage points. The remark was newsworthy for many reasons, not least of which is that Ernaut is close to Sandoval and was one of the two lobbyists credited with planting the idea of running for governor in Sandoval’s mind when he was a federal judge.

The fact that Ernaut’s prediction had raised concerns was apparent immediately, after Sandoval took to Twitter to contradict his adviser: “Mitt Romney clearly has the momentum here in Nevada. Gov. Romney will carry Nevada and be next president. He has my full support,” Sandoval tweeted.

Of the three lines, only the last approaches truth, however. Democrats have out-registered Republicans in Nevada, and they have outperformed Republicans thus far in early voting. Polls conducted by Mark Mellman – the person who came the closest in 2010 to predicting the election outcome – show Obama winning.

In short, it looks like Ernaut will be proved right next Tuesday.

Yes, Ernaut was sharing his professional assessment of the race, while Sandoval was speaking politically – it wouldn’t do for a party up-and-comer to rain on the Republican nominee’s parade. Few will blame Sandoval if Romney fails to win Nevada, just as few will hold against him the decision initially to endorse a candidate as manifestly under-qualified as Perry.

But if Romney somehow does win Nevada, Sandoval can cite his last-minute ad as a factor, although, to be honest, it’s really Krolicki who would deserve credit for a Romney victory here.

And what if Obama wins and Sandoval decides post-election to expand Nevada’s Medicaid program, one of those presidential policies the governor says are “holding us back”? Well, nobody said politics was never going to be a little bit awkward.

Steve Sebelius is a Review-Journal political columnist and author of the blog SlashPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter (@SteveSebelius) or reach him at (702) 387-5276 or ssebelius@reviewjournal.com.