Goicoechea’s gambit

Pete Goicoechea isn’t surrendering. If anything, the Assembly Republican leader believes he’s negotiating from a position of strength, offering Republican votes in the Assembly to extend some taxes in exchange for a laundry list of demands that would make any good Democrat blanch.

On the list: More power for local governments in collective bargaining, lower prevailing wages on public works projects, education reform (including school vouchers that could be used at private schools), protecting taxpayers from liability in the Public Employees Retirement System and making it harder to sue contractors for construction defects.

Democrats won’t like anything on that list. The question is, will they like it less than Gov. Brian Sandoval’s proposed cuts to education, health and human services?

“We do have the votes to hold this until they come to the table,” Goicoechea said Friday. “Unless they meet our demands, we aren’t going anywhere.”

The Eureka Republican says he’s not worried about getting called into Sandoval’s spacious office for a back-stiffening sit-down, the way other Republicans who’ve publicly mused about voting for taxes have. Sandoval knows there’s very little chance Democrats will agree to the concessions he’s outlined.

But if they do, Goicoechea said, he hopes the governor might back off his no-tax pledge in order to secure reforms Republicans might otherwise never get. “I’m hoping the governor would ultimately see the wisdom in our position.”

In the Senate, Republicans have heard nothing of concessions, and even if an offer was made, they’d only go forward with Sandoval’s blessing, said Assistant Minority Leader Barbara Cegavske, a Las Vegas Republican.

What would the Democrats get if they agreed to Goicoechea’s list? About $700 million in temporary taxes passed in 2009 and set to expire in June. The package includes sales, business license, car registration and payroll taxes.

Questions remain: Would Sandoval go back on his oft-repeated promise to not raise taxes if Democrats were to agree to at least some of what Goicoechea is proposing? If not, would the governor veto a bill and force Republicans to override? And could a coalition of reform-hungry Republicans and desperate Democrats find the votes to pass the taxes and override the governor?

On the other hand, if any taxes are to be raised in this penurious environment, the 2009 taxes are the most likely targets. Not only are Nevadans already paying them (thus routing arguments about dire consequences if new taxes are imposed), but also because the mechanism to collect them is already in place and running.

Not only that, an Impact Nevada poll (a partnership between the Review-Journal, 8NewsNow and VegasPBS) showed 82 percent of people believe if taxes are to be passed, they should be temporary. Extending the 2009 “temporary” taxes with another sunset clause — say for two or four years — would be one way to make the vote slightly more palatable to reluctant Republicans, who may have to go against their governor and many members of their party to vote aye on a tax package. (That same poll showed the majority — 56 percent — of voters surveyed believe lawmakers should both cut spending and raise taxes to balance the budget.)

Another hitch: Democrats may not net the full $700 million. They’ve been attacking provisions in the governor’s budget that call for using school bond reserve funds for school operations, thus relieving the state of the obligation. It turns out, there’s much less money there than the governor anticipated, which means there’s a budget hole of at least $106 million that would have to be filled before the money could be used.

In the end, Goicoechea’s gambit may be just a footnote in this budget battle. On the other hand, it may be the twist on which the entire story turns.

Steve Sebelius is a Review-Journal political columnist and author of the blog SlashPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter at www.Twitter.com/SteveSebelius or reach him at 387-5276 or at ssebelius@reviewjournal.com.