UNLV in search of victory

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The presidential election is a little more than two weeks away, and both candidates are trying to get to the magic number of 270.

UNLV’s football team has its own electoral map, and its key number is seven.

That’s the number of victories the Rebels likely need to guarantee a bowl bid, because a 6-6 record might not get them there. The remaining schedule includes two games that lean toward wins, two toward losses and two that are tossups.

Today’s 7 p.m. game against Air Force at Sam Boyd Stadium is one of those tossups, making it a probable must-win if UNLV is to stage a run at its first bowl appearance since 2000.

"The games mean so much more now," quarterback Omar Clayton said.

Though the game is a tossup, it’s not an ideal matchup for the Rebels. Air Force (4-2, 2-1 Mountain West Conference) is a 4-point favorite, and the Falcons average a league-best 292.5 yards rushing per game. UNLV allowed 660 yards rushing over its past two games.

The Falcons’ ability to shorten a game by using clock with their ground attack puts the burden on opposing offenses to match scores. UNLV is fifth in the Mountain West with 26.7 points per game, one spot below Air Force’s 30-point average.

"You’ve got to score because likely you’re only going to get the ball four or five times in a game, maybe six," Rebels wide receiver Casey Flair said. "Every time you touch the ball, you’ve got to get to the end zone."

The Rebels have some possible advantages, such as facing a freshman quarterback, Tim Jefferson, who is making his second start and doesn’t appear to be much of a threat to pass. Also, recent meetings were competitive, with UNLV winning two years ago and losing last season in a game that was closer than the 31-14 score indicated.

"Last year, in my mind, we should’ve beaten them," Rebels coach Mike Sanford said.

UNLV (3-3, 0-2) needs three victories to become bowl eligible, but must win four of its final six games to have a realistic shot at playing beyond November. That’s because teams with winning records must be selected before .500 schools, and the MWC — which has four bowl tie-ins — could have four teams with at least seven victories.

If UNLV reaches seven wins, it would almost be assured of a bowl spot, even if it meant an at-large berth.

The Rebels certainly will be big underdogs to Brigham Young on Oct. 25 and Texas Christian on Nov. 1. They should be favored to beat Wyoming on Nov. 13 and San Diego State on Nov. 22, with the Nov. 8 game against New Mexico more of an even matchup.

But if the Rebels lose tonight, then get routed by BYU and TCU, their confidence could be low, and even games against offense-challenged Wyoming and San Diego State would be no sure things.

So a lot is at stake in tonight’s game. Rebels fans soon will know whether they should think more about making bowl plans or get prepared for basketball season.

Sanford said last week’s bye came at a good time, and perhaps it re-energized UNLV after disheartening losses to UNR and Colorado State put a damper on its promising start.

The Rebels will show against Air Force whether those defeats were mere obstacles on the way to a successful season or signs of what’s to come.

"When I talked to reporters about this team not tailspinning, I think that’s something that this team has," Flair said of being mentally tough. "When we go into every game, we believe we can win.

"We just need to play all four quarters to make that happen."

Contact reporter Mark Anderson at manderson@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2914.