Watch Breeders’ Cup preps with open mind

Over the next two weekends, most of the Breeders’ Cup horses will prep in stakes races at Belmont Park, Keeneland, Santa Anita Park and beyond. I thought it might be revealing to see where the 14 Breeders’ Cup race winners of 2008 prepped, especially since Santa Anita, where the main track is Pro Ride synthetic surface, is the host site again.

Five winners prepped at Santa Anita, five more in turf races in Europe and one each at Belmont, Del Mar, Keeneland and Woodbine.

It makes sense that there was a home-field advantage for horses training at Santa Anita. The quality of horses stabled in Arcadia, Calif., is top notch, and it seems synthetic surfaces take some getting used to. The five Euro winners were in three Breeders’ Cup turf races plus the Marathon and Classic over the main track. Of the four remaining race winners, three prepped in grass stakes at Belmont, Keeneland and Woodbine and one over Polytrack at Del Mar.

One obvious angle: None of the 14 Breeders’ Cup winners last year prepped in a dirt race. All 14 last raced over grass or a synthetic surface.

Now using a stock market caveat: Does this guarantee performance in the upcoming Breeders’ Cup? No. But the idea is to keep an open mind watching all the prep races this weekend and next.

There will be 20 Grade I and 18 Grade II and III stakes run in the next nine days. If a dirt prep is a negative, then you must carefully measure the results at dirt tracks such as Belmont Park. For example, the Jockey Club Gold Cup horses at Belmont might be downgraded a notch compared to the Goodwood runners at Santa Anita.

Speed-figure handicappers might think this is hogwash. However, it’s worth considering, especially if the Belmont dirt horses are overbet compared to horses prepped at Keeneland or Santa Anita or the Euro invaders.

I also suspect that the Euro contingent will be breathing fire off last year’s success. They might be strong enough to win more than five races this year. I suggest following the Daily Racing Form updates to keep track of who will be shipping in from overseas to Santa Anita.

While every graded stakes race is worth winning, the ultimate goal is for a peak effort on Breeders’ Cup day. Look at it this way: A loss in a prep race only boosts a horse’s odds in the Breeders’ Cup itself.

Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.