Kentucky Derby futures wagers favor the bold

At this point last year, American Pharoah was a maiden who won the Del Mar Futurity by nearly five lengths. It was only his second career start.

Were you one of the ones who said to yourself, “I just saw the Kentucky Derby winner.”

If you were bold enough, you could have done more than talk about it. You could have bet it in Las Vegas at a Kentucky Derby futures book.

The first of our Derby futures books opens today at Wynn Las Vegas. The best odds come to those who bet early. But as we all know, a futures bet is a high-risk, high-reward wager.

There is the basic math that you are locking up your money for a minimum of eight months. And since there is only one winner, all of the other horse bets become trash.

But there is a certain swagger for life that comes from winning a futures bet. In a social media world in which redboarding is all too common, it takes a secure person to take a stand with real money long before the event.

American Pharoah was one of the simpler Derby horses for futures bettors to find. Trainer Bob Baffert already had said this might be his most talented colt ever. Clocker Gary Young had mentioned Derby and Triple Crown in the same sentence.

But most Kentucky Derbies are inscrutable puzzles. At this point two years ago, did you like California Chrome? How about Orb, I’ll Have Another or Animal Kingdom so far out?

Even a Ouija board player would have had a hard time finding a Derby winner like Mine That Bird.

That is why most Derby futures players will only take acceptable odds. That bar is set by your own standard. For example, even if you loved American Pharoah, would you have taken 12-1 odds last October? Maybe not.

Johnny Avello runs the race and sports book at Wynn Las Vegas. If you don’t know him, it’s like having pocket aces in Texas Hold’em. You get a good feeling going in.

His opening line is remarkable in that he already has hundreds of 2-year-olds priced. And if you like an unraced 2-year-old, give him a few minutes. He’ll set a price for you.

Two other high-profile Derby futures books are the Westgate and William Hill. They will be opening soon, too.

Another big edge we have in Las Vegas comes later after Churchill Downs offers its pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager. We are in position to price-shop among the various offerings.

So even if you already have bet certain horses, the Future Wager could be a safety valve, depending on the odds of course.

Nyquist is in the spot American Pharoah was at this time last year. His Del Mar Futurity win was a tour de force. His trainer is Doug O’Neill, who won the Derby with I’ll Have Another. However, the sire of Nyquist is Uncle Mo, which could raise doubts about his stamina for 10 furlongs.

The best-looking 2-year-old so far is a filly, Songbird. As fast and facile as she won the Del Mar Debutante, keep in mind her path to the Derby is compromised by the Derby point system.

Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com. Follow him: @richeng4propick