Friesen Fire heads Derby ticket
From 1980 to 1999, the Kentucky Derby favorite lost 20 straight times. In this decade, four favorites have won, including three over the last five years. So the question begs: Who is getting smarter, the handicappers or the horsemen? Both are.
Horseplayers have access to more and better handicapping information than ever. And horsemen are preparing their Derby hopefuls with the “less is more” theory, pinpointing the first Saturday in May with surgical precision. The trend now is deserving favorites who are running better races.
Last year, Big Brown crushed the Derby field as a solid 2-1 choice. The public was spot on, and trainer Rick Dutrow made all the right moves.
This year, the race is much more wide open with Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge (3-1) the morning-line favorite.
Do I like I Want Revenge to win? I’ll try to beat him with two colts I’ve coveted all spring: Friesen Fire and Pioneerof the Nile. I fully expected each horse to be around 8-1 to 10-1 odds. That’s a pipe dream now because of the scratch of Quality Road, who would have been a strong second choice behind I Want Revenge.
My top Kentucky Derby horse is Friesen Fire (5-1), whose last start was a win in the Louisiana Derby seven weeks ago. The layoff is trainer Larry Jones’ strategy. Many have questioned his wisdom. I don’t. Jones has run second in the last two Derbies with Eight Belles (2007) and Hard Spun (2006), so he knows how to prepare a Derby runner.
I suspect Jones has confidence in Friesen Fire and faith in himself to get his colt to peak Saturday off workouts alone.
Before I Want Revenge exploded to big wins in the Gotham and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, there were two losses this winter to Pioneerof the Nile in Southern California. Most horseplayers have since jumped on his bandwagon and off Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile.
I think those folks are selling short trainer Bob Baffert, who has three Kentucky Derby wins, and Garrett Gomez, who chose to ride Pioneerof the Nile over Dunkirk. Baffert has quietly told others he is confident that Pioneerof the Nile (4-1) will run big Saturday.
I Want Revenge is my third choice. If he runs back to his speed figures in the Gotham and Wood Memorial, he’s going to be right there. Joe Talamo overcame a horrendous trip on I Want Revenge in the Wood, breaking slowly and then having traffic trouble the length of the stretch. Talamo had better not repeat that performance in the Derby.
Another horse I will try to beat is Dunkirk (4-1). He’ll have a tough task trying to pass 12 to 15 horses from the half-mile pole with his lack of experience. He is talented, but he’s being asked to do a lot in only his fourth career start.
Finally, the Derby finish would not be complete without a nice long shot running late to complete your exotic wagers. A horse I’ll be using liberally underneath my top choices is Hold Me Back (15-1).
• DERBY SEMINARS — There will be two Derby seminars today, at Sam’s Town and at the Plaza, both starting at 6 p.m. The “Track Talk” radio crew of Gordon Jones, John Kelly, Patrick McQuiggan and Mike Willman will be at Sam’s Town. Dan Shapiro of Lucky’s, Dave Tuley of viewfromvegas.com and I will be at the Plaza. Also, I’ll be a guest handicapper at Planet Hollywood at a free Kentucky Derby party sponsored by propickracing.com.
Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.
