Derby losers capable of upset

If horse racing were about sentiment, then Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and Silver Charm, to name a few, would have won the Triple Crown.

Saturday, the public will turn sentimental again in rooting for Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense to win the Preakness. If he does, Street Sense then would need to win the Belmont Stakes on June 9 to become the sport’s first Triple Crown champion since Affirmed in 1978.

However, horseplayers cannot allow sentiment to get in the way of making money. I can assure you eight rivals will be doing all they can to upset Street Sense and derail history.

One constant about betting on horse racing: Value comes in when the public over-bets the favorite. And Street Sense figures to be heavily over-bet.

I expect Street Sense to go off at even money or less (Barbaro, for example, was a 1-2 favorite last year in the Preakness). However, Derby contenders Hard Spun, Curlin and Circular Quay are capable of pulling an upset.

The early pace of the Preakness might be quicker than that of the Kentucky Derby. First Class Flying, who won the Derby Trial in fast time, is a cinch to lead early on. That sets up a perfect race scenario for Hard Spun and Curlin, as both have the tactical speed to sit relaxed behind that leader.

Of the new shooters, the most intriguing is King of the Roxy, who placed second in his last race, the Santa Anita Derby. He’s owned by Team Valor partners Jeff Siegel, a HorseRacing TV analyst, and Barry Irwin.

In the back will be closers Street Sense and Circular Quay. I expect John Velazquez on Circular Quay to play cat-and-mouse with Calvin Borel on Street Sense the entire trip. Borel loves to ride the rail, and the other jockeys will be gunning for him this time.

Once First Class Flying tires, I believe Hard Spun and Curlin will get first jump on Street Sense and Circular Quay. They will rally fast, but too late, and settle for minor awards.

Thus, my picks for the Preakness are, in order: Hard Spun, Curlin, Street Sense and Circular Quay.

Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.