Derby hopefuls need to run well at Arkansas Derby
The last big prep race for the Kentucky Derby is the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. If you believe in saving the best for last, then American Pharoah is your kind of horse.
Trained by Bob Baffert, American Pharoah (1-2) will go off as one of the shortest odds favorites of any Derby prep this spring. If he wins, he’ll most likely be the Kentucky Derby chalk in the area of 3-1.
Then expect his undefeated stablemate Dortmund to be a tick behind at around 7-2. Then due to the math of 20 betting interests in the Derby, the third choice will likely be in the 8-1 range.
But I get ahead of myself. While the Arkansas Derby looks like a picnic for American Pharoah, there are colts in the field that desperately need points to earn a spot in the Churchill Downs starting gate.
For example, say it will take at least 30 points to get into the Kentucky Derby. Horses like Mr. Z (14 points), Madefromlucky (20), Bold Conquest (20) and Far Right (22) need an in the money finish to reach that goal.
American Pharoah may be penciled in as a free bingo square to win the Arkansas Derby. If so, there figures to be one heck of a fight to finish second and third.
Mr. Z (10-1) returns in two weeks off an awful last place finish in the Louisiana Derby. His trainer D. Wayne Lukas is not shy about wanting to race him in the Kentucky Derby. Lukas, who took the blinkers off his colt in Louisiana, puts them back on at Oaklawn.
Far Right (9-2) won the Smarty Jones and Southwest at Oaklawn and was fortunate not to have faced American Pharoah. This is a true test for class for him.
Madefromlucky (6-1) has a good chance to join a bevy of Todd Pletcher colts in the Kentucky Derby. He ran very well when second in the Rebel to American Pharoah.
And finally, Bold Conquest (20-1) is a ridiculous price in the Arkansas Derby. He will be on all of my vertical bets and should outrun his long shot odds.
The results from Super Saturday last week were very formful. Dortmund won the Santa Anita Derby in a common gallop. Carpe Diem cruised easily in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. While Frosted exited two clunker races at Gulfstream Park with a facile win in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
The cream is rising to the top. It will make handicapping this year’s Derby all the more difficult. Before the Derby point system was in place, there were certain starters who made the field strictly off 2-year-old earnings. Now, it’s more like what have you done for me lately.
Also, it is far too early to stamp this an outstanding group of 3-year-olds. That test will come in the fall when this crop faces older horses. I think older horses like Shared Belief, California Chrome, Bayern and Palace Malice won’t step aside easily.
I do know this group will have a hard time following up the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic finish when the top six finishers were all 3-year-olds.
The final matter is if any colt is capable of becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. California Chrome came close last year. If you’ve bet no for the last 36 years, you’ve shown a nice profit.
Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com. Follow him on Twitter: @richeng4propick
