Use this tool to help find betting value in a horse race
You’ll often hear handicappers talk about finding “value” in a horse race, but they seldom explain what they mean.
There’s a reason for this: While few would argue against the notion that it makes sense to bet on contenders that have a better chance of winning than their odds suggest, there’s no foolproof way to identify those horses in a given race.
Pick a race and ask two handicappers which horses represent the value and you likely will get very different answers.
This is a subject that I intend to return to frequently, and invite some of our crowd ‘cappers to weigh in on as well, as finding value is indeed the secret sauce that will turn a losing horse player into a winner.
But as a conversation starter, I’d like to cover a concept that is familiar to many handicappers but something that few have ever practiced. It’s called making your own line.
There is a little math involved, but with this handy chart anyone can do it.
Here’s what you do: Start with 100 points, representing 100 percent, add a point for each horse in the race, then add points to represent the takeout – the amount the state removes from the win pool — at the racetrack you are playing. The amount varies by state, but you can use 16 if you don’t want to take the time to look it up on the state racing board’s website.
So, for example, if you’re betting an 11-horse race at Del Mar, the total would be 100+11+15 (the takeout rate in California)=126 points.
Now, handicap the race, assign points to each horse based on how you see their chances of winning. So if a horse is 5-1 in your estimation, it would get 17 points per the chart. When you finish, add up the points and see how close you are to the point total and adjust if necessary. The object is to get within a few points of the total to establish your estimation of each horse’s true odds of winning.
This may seem like a lot of extra work, but I’d encourage you to give it a try over a few weeks to see if it doesn’t add some discipline to your betting.
#RJhorseracing featured race
This week our corps of crack handicappers dug into Saturday’s 10th race at Del Mar, a contentious starter-allowance race at a mile on the turf for 3-year-olds and up.
The contest featuring some very lightly raced newcomers and some horses who have shown at least some affinity for the lawn should be a good betting race, based on our handicappers. They have the 7-2 morning line favorite, PopyhowuspelcupcakCQ, and 6-1 Rings of Jupiter tied atop the leaderboard. I’ll let guest handicapper Dean Wright make the case for both, as he picked them 1-2:
“Popyhowuspelcupcak has a lot going for him (though not his name). … His Gulfstream Park debut showed he knows how to overcome hardship, and he’s been working very well. However, we’re all about value. Rings of Jupiter also showed in his last at Santa Anita that he knows how to win while going wide.”
In keeping with our value theme, Dean says he will box those two and Mucho Chrome, who was a close third in the ballots cast by the 5 p.m. deadline.
You might want to listen, as Dean last week gave out the winning $100-plus exacta on Twitter under the #RJhorseracing hashtag.
As for me, I’m going to zag from the crowd ‘cappers this week and key on No. 10 Kona Dreams. I have great respect for trainer Bill Spawr and think he claimed the son of Midshipman, who has run some good races on the Del Mar lawn, one race back with this spot in mind. I’ll box him in exactas with Westwood’s Wizard, Mucho Chrome and Rainbow Squall.
You can join the fun next week. Download free past performances, courtesy of Equibase, at http://reviewjournal-develop.go-vip.co/horseracing when they’re posted on Wednesday, handicap the race and send me your top 3 picks via email or post them on Twitter using #RJhorseracing. If you get them in by 5 p.m. PT Thursday and I use your comment in the column, there’s a pack of R-J breath mints in it for you.
Contact Mike Brunker mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.
Ellis Starr’s analysis
Westwood’s Wizard and Kona Dreams assure a fast pace, made faster if either Zapana’s Game or Beaumarchais draw in from the also-eligible list. That sets up the race to be won by any number of stalkers and closers, but Popyhowuspelcupcak and Uber Star get preference among that group.
Popyhowuspelcupcak and Uber Star form a very potent Bill Morey uncoupled entry, both with the same owner as well. Popyhowuspelcupcak ships in from Florida off a strong maiden win at this mile turf trip in his debut on May 17 and fits the non-winners of 2 conditions perfectly. When Bejarano rides for Morey over the last year or so they are FIVE FOR EIGHT together and with this gelding having won at the trip first out (no easy task) and with excellent works since arriving in California he can win his 2nd in a row.
Uber Star won first off the trainer change to Morey at SA last month with Nakatani aboard, rallying to make up 17 lengths and winning nicely in a field of 8. Nakatani rides back and the gelding has a lot of potential to improve off that race and win again.
Mucho Chrome won nicely sprinting on turf last month and is bred to go long as well as fits nicely at the level. His 12/1 odds are hard to ignore considering all of these are one time winners only.
He Could was 8 to 5 the last time he ran a mile on turf in a non-winners of 2 field but opens at 12/1 and that’s out of line. He broke his maiden last fall at the trip at Del Mar with a rally from last of 10 and although he lost in 3 routes after that only one was at this level.
Rainbow Squall missed by a nose on the wire under identical conditions at the end of April then shortened up to a sprint and finished 3rd. Overmatched in a stakes after that he finished last of 11 then shortened up again he ran okay for 3rd of 12 so going long he could be passing many of these late.
Potential win bets and odds thresholds:
— Popyhowuspelcupcak and Uber Star – 2 to 1.
— Mucho Chrome – 4 to 1.
— He Could – 4 to 1.
— Rainbow Squall 4 to 1.
Ellis Starr is the national racing analyst for Equibase. Visit the Equibase website for more on the race or to purchase handicapping products.
