Arrogate tunes up with Grade 2 race Saturday at Del Mar
Handicappers have a full menu of stakes races to choose from this weekend, with Del Mar underway and Saratoga breaking from the gate Friday. But for admirers of the thoroughbred, the weekend will be about one horse only: the great Arrogate.
The best horse in the world on dirt will launch the second half of his season Saturday in the San Diego Handicap (G2) at Del Mar. The 1 1/16-mile test for 3-year-olds and older will launch what is expected to be a three-race campaign that will culminate with a defense of his Breeders’ Cup Classic title Nov. 4 at Del Mar.
After that, he might race again next year with the goal of defending his title in the Jan. 27 Pegasus World Cup (G1), which will carry a record $16 million purse. But the pressure to retire him will be intense by that point, and I’ll be surprised if we see him again on the racetrack after that.
Saturday’s race is clearly a steppingstone, and it’s obvious that trainer Bob Baffert won’t have the 4-year-old son of Unbridled’s Song cranked up for his first race since his jaw-dropping victory in the Dubai World Cup (G1) on March 25. The 1 1/16-mile race also is shorter than Arrogate’s preferred 1¼-mile distance and he’ll carry 126 pounds, giving 8 to 11 pounds to five plucky rivals dreaming of an upset of upset proportions.
It really shouldn’t matter. As Arrogate showed in Dubai, he can shrug off adversity like a hotel bathrobe, and none of these rivals appears capable of making him work hard for the victory.
As for betting the San Diego Cap, which will go to post about 6:10 p.m., my strong advice is don’t. With the likelihood that just a few more dances remain on Arrogate’s card before he heads off to the breeding shed, this is a time to savor a racehorse for the ages, not try to add a few pennies to your bankroll.
If you are looking for some good stakes wagering opportunities, Del Mar and Saratoga have you covered this weekend.
Saratoga will kick off its stakes program with the Diana (G1) and Sanford (G3) Stakes on Saturday and the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) on Sunday.
In addition to the San Diego, Del Mar has the Eddie Read Stakes (G2) on Saturday and the San Clemente Handicap (G2).
#RJhorseracing feature race
While other handicappers feast on stakes, the Review-Journal’s corps of pickers are digging into more “meat-and-potatoes” fare: a 7-furlong allowance race for New York-bred nonwinners, which is the sixth race Saturday at Saratoga.
The race poses a question that handicappers must confront regularly: Is an impressive maiden winner going to be able to replicate that effort against winners?
In this case, our handicappers think the answer is yes and that Gucci Factor (Post 13) will build on the 16-length maiden score he recorded last month at Belmont Park.
“His 14-length triumph in his 4-year-old debut, his first race off an almost one-year layoff, points him out at 9-2,” wrote handicapper David Williams, suggesting Gucci Factor might drift down from his 5-1 morning line odds. “I also like the turn back to 7 furlongs, a distance that figures to suit him.”
Our crowd ’cappers had a dead-heat for the second spot between Fleet Irish and morning line favorite Build to Suit.
I see the race similarly. I think the Saratoga track handicapper missed the mark on Gucci Factor, whom I expect will be more like 7-2 and vie for favoritism. I’ll box the Christophe Clement-trained colt with Fleet Irish (Post 4), Born for a Storm (9) and Built to Suit (12) and bet him to win if he’s 9-2 or higher.
You’re invited to join the fun next week: Download the past performances (courtesy of Equibase) as soon as they’re posted late Wednesday at reviewjournal.com/horseracing, unravel the handicapping puzzle and submit your picks and brief analysis by email or Twitter (using the hashtag #RJhorseracing) by 5 p.m. PT Thursday.
Mike Brunker’s horse racing column appears Friday. Contact him at mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.
Ellis Starr’s race analysis
Betting strategy: Bet Gucci Factor to win at odds of 1-1 or higher.
Play an exacta key with Gucci Factor over Terry O Geri, Fleet Irish, Born for a Storm and Build to Suit.
Ellis Starr is the national racing analyst for Equibase. Visit the Equibase website for more on the race or to purchase handicapping products.
