‘All others’ is 6-5 choice in Kentucky Derby futures betting
If I ever get lucky enough to realize my dream of owning a horse with Kentucky Derby potential, I’m going to name him All Others.
That way I could brag that I owned the early favorite for the Derby. And given the growing popularity of the Run for the Roses, I’d also create chaos at betting windows around the planet.
That’s because “all others” in terms of Derby futures betting refers to all of the soon to be 3-year-old thoroughbreds that aren’t among the 23 named betting interests in the pool offered by Churchill Downs. For next year’s race, that means you’d potentially have thousands of runners in your corner, depending on how many of the approximately 20,850 thoroughbreds born in North America in 2015 are still racing.
Bets on “all others,” also known as the field, have performed fairly well over the 19 years that Churchill has offered Derby future wagering, winning nine times, according to statistics compiled by the Downey Profile. A $2 win wager each year over that span would have yielded a profit of $18.40.
The bad news is that the payoff has steadily declined in recent years to where there’s not really any value to be found there. This year, for example, bettors pushed “all others” down to 6-5, meaning you’d be wagering $2 to win $4.40 by betting that none of the 23 colts that have shown the most early promise will win the race.
Meanwhile, bettors who ignored my advice and put money down in the first Churchill Downs futures pool, which took bets from Thanksgiving Day through Sunday, made Bolt d’Oro the choice among named entries, at 7-1. That matches my assessment that trouble cost him a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, when he finished third behind Good Magic (second in the futures pool at 11-1) and Solomini (a generous 22-1 in round one).
Probably the most interesting horse in pool 1 is the Bob Baffert-trained McKinzie, who was bet heavily to finish as the third choice at 12-1. The son of Street Sense has raced only once, on Oct. 28, when he manhandled what appeared to be a strong maiden special weight field at Santa Anita. Definitely one to watch when he surfaces next.
#RJhorseracing feature races
The #RJhorseracing handicapping corps returns to action off a strong 2-for-2 performance two weeks ago. This time we’re tackling two marquee races on Saturday’s card at Aqueduct — the $250,000 Remsen Stakes (Gr. 2), featuring 2-year-olds who might contend for next year’s Kentucky Derby, and the $750,000 Cigar Mile Handicap (Gr. 1) for older horses.
In the Remsen, our crew was almost evenly split between Avery Island (3-1 on the morning line) and Catholic Boy (5-1), who will try the dirt for the first time off a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, with the latter earning a nose victory. Alkhaatam (7-2) was the third choice.
I’ll be praying for Catholic Boy as well. He was my selection in the Breeders’ Cup race and finished a close-up fourth when racing in traffic along the rail. I also loved how strongly he galloped out after the finish line.
In the Cigar Mile, the crowd ’cappers are siding decisively with Sharp Azteca, the 2-1 morning line favorite who was a tough-luck second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last out. Practical Joke (7-2) and Mind Your Biscuits (5-1) will fill out the placings, they figure.
“No Grade 1 win, but was 3-1 in Breeders’ after Grade 3 and Grade 2 wins at very short prices,” notes handicapper Shelly Benardo, explaining the allure of the favorite.
I agree Sharp Azteca is the horse to beat, but I’ll take a shot with Seymourdini (6-1), hoping jockey Jose Ortiz can take the 4-year-old back to avoid getting in a speed duel with the favorite and tag him late.
We’d love to have you join us next week as we try to solve the toughest racing puzzles around. Simply email me or follow me on Twitter to get in on the #RJhorseracing action.
Contact Mike Brunker at mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.
Ellis Starr’s Cigar Mile analysis
The 29th running of the Grade 1, $750,000 Cigar Mile Handicap is a race with a tremendously talented field of 10.
Tom’s Ready runs his best races at one mile or less and preferably around one turn. All five of his career wins have come at the distance of a mile or at seven furlongs, including a career best effort in the Bold Ruler Handicap last month at Belmont Park in which Tom’s Ready earned a 122 Equibase Speed Figure.
Americanize ships in from California on the heels of two strong wins since adding blinkers. Americanize earned a career-best 123 figure in his last start, the Damascus Stakes on Nov. 3, and that effort stacks up nicely with the top contenders in this field.
Beasley finished third in the Bold Ruler last month, three-quarters of a length behind Tom’s Ready. Considering he is just a 3-year-old, Beasley has more improving to do and should get a great trip stalking the pace-setters in the Cigar.
Ellis Starr is the national racing analyst for Equibase. Visit the Equibase website for more on the race or to purchase handicapping products.
