Woods ‘train wreck’ overshadows Day’s win
On one of those postcard Sundays in San Diego, Jason Day won a four-man playoff to cap a dramatic weekend on a golf course by the beach. The start of the tournament was delayed by fog, and two of the game’s biggest stars were shrouded in it.
Tiger Woods quit in the middle of the first round. Phil Mickelson was cut after the second round.
Day, a 27-year-old Australian, got his moment in the sun at the same time it was setting on Tiger and Phil. Day’s win in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines is a good story, but it was overshadowed.
Whether he’s good or bad, Woods is the headline. He’s why so many people watch golf and why most bet it.
“Tiger’s going the wrong way right now,” said Jeff Sherman, golf oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas sports book. “Every aspect of his game is a complete mess. He’s a train wreck.”
Train wrecks tend to attract attention. Woods has not been the same since his low-speed car crash in November 2009. There were stories of porn stars, a pancake waitress, a trip to a sex addiction clinic, caddie and coaching changes, divorce and injuries. Meanwhile, his on-the-course game declined. But he remained competitive and sometimes was a contender.
Now, Tiger is tame off the course and terrible on it, pulling up lame more often than not.
But his sideshow still is the story. Soon after opening Woods at 50-1 odds last week at Torrey Pines, Sherman got a call from an ESPN reporter.
“I started getting calls from media all over the country,” Sherman said. “There was so much interest in this.”
The betting interest was mostly about Woods. The futures board at the Westgate featured 49 players, and Sherman said Woods drew 17 percent of the tickets and 30 percent of the money. The wagering handle was three times larger than a normal PGA Tour event.
Jordan Spieth, the 10-1 favorite, drew 4 percent of the tickets. Spieth missed the cut, Woods withdrew citing a bad back, and the books won. The Westgate closed Woods’ odds at 40-1. At William Hill books, Woods opened at 40-1 and closed 20-1.
“It just doesn’t look like he’s capable of staying healthy and staying on the course,” said William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich, who counted 149 tickets on Woods and 57 on the second-most popular player.
Woods played only 11 holes and scrambled to shoot 2 over par on the easier North Course at Torrey Pines. He sprayed errant shots into the crowd and reached for his back while grimacing in supposed pain. Injury was his easy way out.
“It was painful to watch,” Bogdanovich said, describing Tiger’s play and not his back issues.
Woods was escorted by cart to the parking lot, where he offered reporters an odd explanation of his back problems before driving off in a Porsche. He might have spent the weekend with girlfriend Lindsey Vonn, who was skiing in Colorado. In his wake, analysts attempted to break down Woods’ mental and physical conditions, neither of which are positive.
“He has no confidence,” Sherman said. “I’m not expecting much improvement. He can come back, but I wouldn’t look on the immediate horizon for it to happen.”
Woods was a small favorite to make the cut at Torrey Pines, where he has won eight times in his career. I was a sucker for that proposition bet, which drew a lot of action from other suckers, too.
The Masters, the year’s first major, is in early April. Sherman has adjusted Woods’ odds to 50-1, almost double the market price yet still not high enough, to be realistic.
“One $5 ticket. That’s it,” Sherman said of the action the Westgate has on Woods at 50-1 in the Masters.
“This is the highest I ever remember putting him up at 50-1, and I’ve been doing these odds his entire pro career. We adjust the odds to a point that keeps attracting money on him. If you run down his finishes and what he’s done the last six months, it looks like a golfer who should be 200-1.”
In his season debut in Phoenix, Woods missed the cut by 12 shots. Torrey Pines was his third withdrawal in his past eight starts. A week after saying his back was fine, he said it was hurt again. It’s obvious he has lost his competitive edge.
“I’m not running away from Tiger,” said Brian Blessing, a Las Vegas radio host (Sportsbookradio.com) and golf bettor. “When he comes back and gets hot for a year, I’m not going to say I told you so. It may be a long time. He’s got 10 years left to do something.”
At 39, Woods still has time to chase Jack Nicklaus. But, for now, he can’t stick with Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott and Bubba Watson.
I won’t place a wager on Woods again this year. I did cash a ticket on Day at 10-1, overcoming my prop loss and learning something in the process. Tiger, while always a big story, is now just a foolish bet.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
