Without Tiger, books hope stars come out
It was feared a U.S. Open without Tiger Woods might lack star power and wagering appeal, that one of the elite events on the golf calendar could turn into a major disappointment.
But those fears were mostly unfounded on a memorable Thursday at Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Md.
All the big names and usual suspects — Charl Schwartzel, Y.E. Yang, Louis Oosthuizen, Kyung-tae Kim and Scott Hend — showed up to light up the leaderboard.
Can it get any better than this? Let’s hope so.
“If you see this type of leaderboard on Sunday, it might diminish the TV audience a little bit,” Las Vegas Hilton golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said. “The handle for the tournament is correlated with the TV ratings. If Tiger is competing and he’s there on Sunday, we write a lot more money.”
Woods is not there, of course. But that’s not the only problem. The rest of the world’s best players were first-round flops. The top three in the rankings — Luke Donald, Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer — were a combined 10 over par.
Dustin Johnson found the water and imploded early. Phil Mickelson hit more spectators than greens in regulation.
The leader is Rory McIlroy, a 22-year-old who resembles a Cabbage Patch Kid. After shooting a 6-under 65, McIlroy was made the 9-4 favorite on the Hilton’s adjusted odds. He holds a three-stroke lead, two months after he blew a four-stroke lead in the final round of the Masters.
“Now the question is, can he sustain it for four rounds? As wide open as it is, outside of McIlroy, it’s throwing darts,” Sherman said.
McIlroy, at 15-1 odds before the tournament, was not a player I targeted. Instead, my biggest wager was on Johnson at 25-1, and his adjusted odds are 80-1, so that looks like a big loser.
“Right away, Johnson took himself out. You don’t win the tournament on the first day, but you definitely can lose it,” Sherman said. “A lot of players just put themselves in really tough positions.”
Mickelson, Westwood and Donald shared the favorite’s role at 12-1 at the Hilton before a four-figure bet on Westwood moved his odds to 10-1. Mickelson dropped to 25-1 after the first round, while Westwood and Donald are 30-1.
“People love the adjusted odds to win,” said Sherman, who called Brandt Snedeker (30-1) and Aaron Baddeley (50-1) two players who might be worth a dart. Snedeker shot 70, and Baddeley 71.
Yang, who shot down Woods in the final round of the PGA Championship two years ago, closed at 100-1 and drew a “minimal amount” of wagering, Sherman said.
Yang’s adjusted odds are 20-1. He’s three shots behind McIlroy and tied with Schwartzel, who has moved from 50-1 to 12-1.
Before he won the Masters in April, most golf fans had never paid a second of attention to the name Charl Schwartzel. I call him “The Snake” because a guy with that name needs a cool nickname. He doesn’t sound like a major winner.
But he won a major that turned a huge profit for most sports books. The Hilton wrote 11 tickets on Schwartzel at 125-1 in the Masters.
“It was by far the best handle we’ve had on a golf tournament, and we won a ridiculously high percentage,” Sherman said.
The handle for the U.S. Open will be about half what it was for the Masters, which featured a healthy Woods and a lot more hype.
Woods, who withdrew from the Open, is presumably limping from the couch to the refrigerator while dealing with left leg injuries and psychological issues. When he returns, ESPN’s Tom Rinaldi surely will be ready with more sappy, softball questions asked in a hushed tone.
“After a one-month layoff, Tiger might have embarrassed himself,” Sherman said. “I don’t expect much of him when he does come back.”
Unless he can find another good doctor with HGH connections.
“Whatever is going on, Tiger or no Tiger, there is a ton of wagering interest in golf majors right now,” Sherman said.
The U.S. Open handle has been solid, exceeding Sherman’s projections. The Hilton will offer in-running wagering during Sunday’s final round. Without Woods, the show goes on.
But if it’s McIlroy and mostly no-names in contention, the fear is nobody will care enough to show up and bet.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
