Watt, Texans too powerful for Titans
In time, Bill O’Brien will find the quarterback he needs to make the Houston Texans contenders. It’s his first year as coach, and he had to piece things together on the fly.
O’Brien inherited a 2-14 team with a couple of elite pieces, starting with defensive end J.J. Watt and running back Arian Foster. Watt is the most dominant defensive player in the NFL, maybe even the Most Valuable Player. Foster ranks second in the league in rushing.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, famous for attending Harvard and scoring 49 of 50 on the Wonderlic test, is probably the league’s smartest quarterback. But brain power is not the entire equation. A “Jeopardy!” winner does not instantly become a draft prospect.
Mel Kiper Jr. and Alex Trebek are not scouting the same prospects.
And that’s the problem with the Texans. Fitzpatrick is the team’s obvious weakness, and it’s nearly impossible to contend for a division title or something more with a below-average player at the quarterback position.
Indianapolis is led by Andrew Luck. Houston has Fitzpatrick, and thus no chance of knocking off the Colts in the AFC South.
But the Texans, riding a three-game losing streak to a 3-4 record, can lasso the Tennessee Titans, a 2-5 team even worse off at quarterback and most other spots on the field.
The Titans will start rookie Zach Mettenberger, a sixth-round pick from Louisiana State, on Sunday in a game no one would watch unless a bet is riding on it. I’ll watch only because I bet the Texans as 2½-point road favorites. The number moved to 3 on Thursday, but it’s a line Houston should be able to handle.
O’Brien was furious Monday after the Texans blew a 13-0 lead in a loss at Pittsburgh, so his team’s focus won’t be a problem. Fitzpatrick’s mistakes might be a problem, but he’s playing to keep his starting job. Foster was running through the Steelers until turnovers turned the game upside-down during a wild three-minute stretch late in the first half. This is a game Foster can control on the ground, while Watt and Houston’s defensive front put Mettenberger under pressure.
Watt was the 11th pick in the 2011 draft. Two quarterbacks were selected just ahead of him — Jake Locker went eighth to Tennessee and Blaine Gabbert went 10th to Jacksonville — and that explains a lot.
The Titans, who scored 17 points or fewer in five of their seven games this season, have failed to cover their past nine home games. I’ll side with the Texans, although they rarely make it look easy.
Four more plays for Week 8 (home team in CAPS):
■ Bears (+6) over PATRIOTS: Dissension is sometimes good, and maybe it will wake up quarterback Jay Cutler and pull the Bears together. Chicago has an extremely talented offense that underachieves because of Cutler. He has a knack for answering the critics, if only for one week. The New England defense, missing top end and pass-rush maniac Chandler Jones, had trouble slowing the Jets. This is a prime spot for the Bears, who are 0-3 at home and 3-1 on the road.
■ Ravens (-1) over BENGALS: Cincinnati has been terrible on both sides of the ball in three consecutive games. The Bengals can’t count on the return of big-play wideout A.J. Green, who is doubtful to play. Baltimore is on a roll going into this division revenge game, and hopefully its erratic quarterback, Joe Flacco, shows up this week.
■ Eagles (+2) over CARDINALS: If Arizona wins, its top-ranked run defense and running back Andre Ellington will be the reasons. Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer’s prowess is being overrated. Palmer will feel the heat of a Philadelphia pass rush that crushed the Giants’ Eli Manning two weeks ago. After a bye, the Eagles are a healthier team, and coach Chip Kelly will be well prepared for this matchup.
■ SAINTS (-2) over Packers: This is an all-or-nothing game for New Orleans, which is 2-4 and desperately needs the win. I hate to bet against Aaron Rodgers, arguably the league’s best quarterback, but Green Bay’s four-game win streak is not that impressive if you look at the opponents. Saints coach Sean Payton is 19-0 straight up and on a 17-1-1 spread run at the Superdome. The public is all over the Packers, but a lot of sharp money is showing on the Saints.
Last week: 4-1 against the spread
Season: 17-16-2
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
