#VegasMadness betting blog: Oregon in a blowout, Bakersfield wins at buzzer
In early December, Dana Altman visited Las Vegas for a one-night stand and left with an 11-point loss to UNLV. He stayed the whole week this time, and the results were dramatically different.
Altman coached Oregon, the Pac-12 regular-season champion, to the conference tournament title Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden. The Ducks blasted Utah 88-57 as Tyler Dorsey led the assault with 23 points.
A veteran handicapper said today the “squares” were betting Oregon, so he was betting the other side. Sometimes, that’s a smart strategy. In this case, it backfired. The so-called squares get it right sometimes.
For anyone who watched Oregon and Utah play in Friday’s semifinals, it was obvious the Ducks — with better guards and better athletes all over the floor — would be a problematic matchup for the Utes. The surprise was that the beating was so lopsided.
By the way, whatever happened to that UNLV team from early December?
Elsewhere, the battle for the Western Athletic Conference title at Orleans Arena was a real thriller. The sharp bettors cashed on Cal State Bakersfield, favored by 1 to 1½, against top-seeded New Mexico State. The Roadrunners gunned down the Aggies 57-54 on Dedrick Basile’s last-second 3-pointer.
Looking ahead to Sunday — and start handicapping early because we lose an hour — Michigan State minus-4 over Purdue in the Big Ten title game will be one of my plays.
Underdog Bulldogs win MW at 8-1 odds
Another No. 1 seed bites the dust, and the loss could be costly for San Diego State. But the bettors who backed Fresno State at 8-1 odds to win the Mountain West tournament are cashing tickets.
Marvelle Harris scored 18 points to lift the Bulldogs, 4½-point underdogs and plus-180 to win outright, to a 68-63 victory over the Aztecs. Fresno won the game behind the 3-point line by hitting 10 of 24.
The Bulldogs blew past UNLV and Colorado State en route to the championship game. Fresno will make its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2001.
There might be a glimmer of hope for the losers. San Diego State, with its 16-2 regular-season record in conference play, is on the “Last Four In” line, according to ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi. Still, the odds are probably against the Aztecs sneaking into the 68-team field.
Tipoff: The day begins in the Mountain West with an intriguing 3 p.m. title game at the Thomas & Mack Center. It’s a high-stakes showdown with the NCAA Tournament on the line. If top-seeded San Diego State falters against Fresno State, coach Steve Fisher said he will be “very nervous” on Selection Sunday. This is the third meeting of the season, and each team won a thriller at home. The Aztecs took a 73-67 decision in overtime on Jan. 19. The Bulldogs prevailed 58-57 on Feb. 10.
While No. 1 seeds fall in conference tournaments across the country, all three are still alive in Las Vegas. Top-seeded Oregon is a slight favorite over Utah in the Pac-12 final at 7:15 p.m. at the MGM Grand Garden, where both Friday semifinals went to overtime. New Mexico State faces Cal State Bakersfield at 8 p.m. in the Western Athletic Conference final at Orleans Arena. The line opened pick’em, but a little sharp money has turned the top-seeded Aggies into 1-point underdogs.
I need a bounce-back performance after bombing Friday at 1-5.
Best Bets in Vegas
(4-2 overall, 1-1 Friday)
Fresno State (+4½) over San Diego State
As noted, the first two meetings went to the wire, so why not another close call? The Aztecs were lucky to get by Utah State on Thursday, and they took advantage of a mediocre UNR team Friday. The Wolf Pack, who shot poorly from the perimeter all season, were at less than full strength because of a hobbled Marqueze Coleman. I bet Fresno at 8-1 odds to win this tournament, so I’ll stick with that opinion. The Bulldogs, riding the wave of a seven-game win streak, are strong inside with Karachi Edo and led from the outside by talented scorer Marvelle Harris.
Oregon (-2) over Utah
The Ducks knocked out a more talented Arizona team that had an impressive fan following at the Grand Garden. Oregon has advantages at the guard spots and long athletes who will give Utes 7-footer Jakob Poeltl problems in the paint. Poeltl has been carrying Utah on the offensive end, but is he getting worn down? In the past four games, Poeltl has played 43, 38, 36 and 39 minutes.
Other plays today: (5-7 overall, 0-4 Friday) Seton Hall (+6) over Villanova; Virginia (+2½) over North Carolina; Hawaii (-4) over Long Beach State; Cal State Bakersfield (-1) over New Mexico State.
(This betting blog will be updated throughout the day.)
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
