Take Ryan, underdog Falcons against Saints
It’s easy to name the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and it’s just as simple to say Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons is not on the list. He looks the part — big, smart and strong-armed — but he’s not quite playing the role.
Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and the Indianapolis Colts quarterback with the neck injury are the high five on the passer rankings, which are not to be confused with passer ratings.
It has been said that statistics are similar to girls in bikinis because they reveal a lot but not everything. Stats matter, but winning is more important.
Ryan needs to win playoff games, and he also needs to outgun Brees in what has been a one-sided duel between the two. Brees has the stats to go with the wins, while Ryan comes up a little short in both areas.
Since 2006, when Brees and coach Sean Payton joined forces in New Orleans, the Saints are 8-2 in the NFC South rivalry with Brees passing for 3,010 yards and 20 touchdowns.
In nine games this season, Brees has passed for 3,004 yards and 21 touchdowns. He has completed 71 percent of his throws, thanks to a lot of dump-offs to running back Darren Sproles, a 5-foot-6-inch stick of dynamite. Sproles leads the league with 1,499 all-purpose yards.
Most football bettors prefer to side with explosive offenses, so the Saints could be a popular play at Atlanta on Sunday. But I’ll take Ryan and the Falcons as 1-point underdogs.
New Orleans (6-3) has been good but not great, except when destroying the winless and Peyton Manning-less Colts. The Saints are coming off a sluggish victory over Tampa Bay, one week after a confounding loss at St. Louis.
Brees has a touchdown pass in 36 straight games to tie Brett Favre for the league’s second-longest streak. Sort of like Favre, however, Brees tends to force throws in an effort to make plays, and he has 11 interceptions to show for it.
Ryan’s numbers (60.9 percent completions, 1,958 yards, 12 touchdowns, nine interceptions) are passable, yet look for them to improve. With the consistency of running back Michael Turner and rookie wide receiver Julio Jones getting more involved, the Falcons are beginning to hit their stride offensively.
Atlanta (5-3) must protect its home field, and Ryan is 8-1 in home division games with 10 touchdown passes and a 98.7 passer rating. The Falcons have won six straight games in November. The Saints are 2-8 against the spread in their past 10 on the road. So some numbers in this matchup make siding with Ryan look good.
Four more plays for Week 10 (Home team in CAPS):
■ Steelers (-3) over BENGALS: Roethlisberger has a history of playing well in Cincinnati, where the Steelers have won and covered four of the past five meetings. The Bengals, behind a strong defense and solid play from rookie quarterback Andy Dalton, are the league’s biggest surprise. But Pittsburgh, off a loss, will take care of business.
■ Bills (+5½) over COWBOYS: With the exception of a 27-11 loss to the Jets that got away in the second half, Buffalo has been involved in close games. Dallas has been a poor home favorite, covering two of its past 10 in that role.
■ Lions (+3) over BEARS: The emergence of running back Matt Forte has balanced Chicago’s offense and eased the pressure on quarterback Jay Cutler. But I still don’t trust Cutler. The Lions are 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 road games.
■ JETS (-1½) over Patriots: It’s tough to imagine New England losing three straight, but it’s certainly not impossible. The Patriots are dealing with problems on both sides of the ball, while the Jets are on the upswing. The Jets are 2-0 at home in this rivalry under coach Rex Ryan.
Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 24-18-3
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at 702-387-2907 or myoumans@reviewjournal.com.
