Super Bowl prop menu keeps expanding
When the first snap of the game sailed over Peyton Manning’s head for a safety, the blunder by the Denver Broncos meant a big payday for some lucky bettors.
It was a Super Bowl moment from two years ago that never will be forgotten, mostly because of proposition betting. Still, nothing can top William “The Refrigerator” Perry scoring on a 1-yard run for the Chicago Bears three decades ago.
In the 1980s, Super Bowl prop betting was a new and mysterious world, not to mention a small part of the year’s biggest game. It has morphed into a major fascination, so much so that Westgate Las Vegas sports book director Jay Kornegay was interviewed Thursday on ESPN’s “SportsCenter” after he unveiled about 400 props for Super Bowl 50.
“Back when the Super Bowls were blowouts, the games were boring, and the props would keep people entertained in the second half,” Kornegay said. “The props became popular, and that’s why we started to expand the menu.”
Kornegay did not invent the prop — just as Al Gore did not invent the Internet — but he has helped launch the proliferation of prop betting by expanding on a simple concept and creating hundreds of ways to bet on one game.
It was 7:02 p.m. when the video wall at the Westgate lit up with props. TV cameras were rolling, and bettors of all shapes started to size up the numbers. Heads tilted up, with old men staring in amazement as if a spaceship was landing. The opening-night crowd was a mixture of Average Joes and sharp pros.
“I remember putting up 10 props and sweating whether we had them right or not,” said Michael “Roxy” Roxborough, a longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker. “The idea you could put up 400 …”
He changed directions before finishing the sentence. But the idea you could put up 400 props is almost absurd.
Roxborough, who founded and ran Las Vegas Sports Consultants from 1982 to 1999, spends about half of the year in Thailand. He did not come back specifically for the rollout of the Westgate’s props, but he was not going to miss it, either.
In Super Bowl XX in 1986, Roxborough recalled, a unique prop was posted on Perry to score a touchdown. In the second half of the Bears’ 46-10 blowout of New England, the fat defensive tackle plunged into the end zone. The prop, which was a popular play with bettors, paid between 15-1 and 22-1 odds.
“I remember the first year we lost a ton of money was ’86,” Roxborough said. “We got buried on the bet. All we did was pay.”
Two years ago, when the Broncos were embarrassed 43-8 by Seattle, the prop on the first score of the game being a Seahawks safety cashed at 50-1 odds. The rest of the game was a super bore, but thanks to props, every play meant something.
The standard prop price on a safety being scored at any point in the game is “No” minus-800 and “Yes” plus-550. The “No” bettors were recently burned three years in a row.
“Professional gamblers always thought the safety was terribly mispriced,” Roxborough said with a laugh, “and they got carried out on that.”
Prop betting has become big business. For some books, props account for about 50 percent of the Super Bowl wagering handle. While serious bettors are seeking the slightest of edges, casual fans often treat props as an amusement park ride.
“The vast majority of people are betting props, because it’s fun to bet props and you get action all throughout the course of the game,” Las Vegas handicapper Ted Sevransky said. “But there certainly are a good handful of wiseguys here in town who are looking at the props as a real moneymaking opportunity.”
Sevransky studied the prop board at the Westgate, where Kornegay and his team have turned the art of Super Bowl prop oddsmaking into a science.
“You used to be able to come down here and find some pretty good opportunities off the openers,” Sevransky said. “In 2016, the numbers here are sharper. I have not seen any sharper numbers than what Jay Kornegay and his staff are offering.”
Kornegay and his top oddsmakers — Ed Salmons and Jeff Sherman — gained acclaim for their prop creativity at the Imperial Palace in the 1990s.
“It really took off in 1995 because that Super Bowl was going to be boring,” Kornegay said, referring to San Francisco’s 49-26 victory over San Diego in which the 49ers were 18-point favorites.
This matchup figures to be more competitive. The Carolina Panthers are 5½-point favorites over Manning and the Broncos on Feb. 7.
Will there be overtime? The “Yes” side of the prop pays plus-550, but remember that none of the previous 49 Super Bowls went to overtime.
Interesting cross-sport props involve NBA stars LeBron James and Stephen Curry, golfer Phil Mickelson and soccer star Lionel Messi.
Manning is matched against a soccer player named Zlatan Ibrahimovic in one bizarre prop that might not appeal to many people. But it will get bet, because all 400 or so props draw some kind of action.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
