Super Bowl bettors put faith, cash in Colts’ corner
Throw out the two games the Indianapolis Colts tanked, a self-sabotage scenario which threatened the integrity of the NFL, and Peyton Manning is 16-0 as a starting quarterback this season.
Manning has won every game the Colts didn’t try to lose. In reality, he has a perfect record.
The New Orleans Saints played their best football before December, and they dropped two games in which quarterback Drew Brees played all four quarters.
The Super Bowl is always the most overanalyzed event in sports. On the surface, this one favors the Colts. Dig deeper into the details, and it still favors the Colts. Professional gambler Steve Fezzik cast a sharp eye on both teams and came to a conclusion.
"I like the Colts in the game," Fezzik said. "One team is fat, drunk and happy to be in the Super Bowl."
The happy-to-be-here team would be the Saints. This game, Fezzik said, is about Manning, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne and the Colts "cementing their legacy" among the elite.
Already considered one of the all-time great quarterbacks, Manning knows he needs to take that next step. With two Super Bowl wins on his resume, Manning would leap into the class of untouchables.
There is a sense this is the Colts’ year, and the bettors are backing up that opinion. Indianapolis is a 51/2-point favorite over New Orleans in Sunday’s game at Miami. The line opened 31/2, and it’s 6 at a few sports books today.
Las Vegas books are seeing about a 3-to-1 ratio of betting tickets on the Colts, and industry insiders are forecasting more point-spread inflation.
"I really think we’re going to see a line that reaches 7 before the game. I didn’t think that 48 hours ago, but I do now," Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky’s sports books, said Sunday night. "I think this game is going to close 6 or higher."
One way to bet this Super Bowl is to take both sides, playing Indianapolis on the money line, which means laying minus-210 ($210 to win $100) on the Colts to win straight up, and playing New Orleans plus the points at the highest number.
"What I’m hoping is the money line (on Indianapolis) will drop," Fezzik said. "Even though I like the Colts, if I can get the Saints plus-7 and lay minus-120, I certainly would fire on the Saints."
Using that strategy, there is a wide window to win both wagers if the final score falls in the middle.
With the books taking a high volume of Colts money at point spreads of 31/2, 4, 41/2, 5 and 51/2 — and Saints money coming back at plus-6, 61/2 and possibly 7 — the books will be exposed and fearing worst-case scenarios.
"I don’t want too many dangerous numbers," Vaccaro said. "We’re leaving too many wide-open numbers for a side and a middle here. The worst thing for the books would be a 23-17 Colts final.
"You never say it’s a one-way attack in a game like this because nobody can see that far into the future. But I think you’ll see an unconventional Super Bowl."
The bottom line: If you like the Colts to win, bet them straight up on the money line. If you prefer the Saints, wait for the line to creep a little higher and take the points. Or bet it both ways.
According to reliable sources, the most respected sports bettor in Las Vegas bet $200,000 to win $100,000 on the Colts at a Strip property last week.
New Orleans has an opportunistic defense and a quarterback in Brees who is capable of outgunning Manning. Indianapolis’ top pass rusher, Dwight Freeney, is hobbled and his status is questionable. It can be argued the Saints’ Sean Payton is the sharper of the two coaches.
A decent case can be made for the underdog.
But the Saints beat only one playoff team on the road, and that was Philadelphia in Week 2, when Donovan McNabb was out. The Saints also lost a home game to lowly Tampa Bay on Dec. 27, and needed a series of breaks to beat Minnesota in the NFC Championship Game.
"I like the Colts because when I break down the road games, the Saints played a very soft road schedule, and they really got lucky in many ways," Fezzik said. "What is particularly troubling to me is they lost that game to Tampa Bay. And we all saw the Vikings outplay them."
Fezzik has a wealth of advice on how to wager on the propositions, including, "Don’t bet the needle-in-the-haystack props."
That means shy away from bets such as the player to score the first touchdown. Clark, the Colts’ tight end, and top wideout Wayne are each offered at 7-1 odds.
I would rather bet on Brees to pass for more yards in the second half (minus-140) than the first half.
Indianapolis’ strategy to rest Manning, Clark, Wayne and other starters — resulting in late-season losses to the New York Jets and Buffalo — did not backfire. It just happened to work because the Colts got to face the AFC’s lowest-seeded teams, Baltimore and the Jets, in the postseason.
"The fact the Colts were able to tank against the Jets and get to play the Jets again in the playoffs, that was very fortuitous," Fezzik said.
Manning did not want to tank those two games. But he should get what he needs — a second Super Bowl victory — and the majority of bettors are banking on it.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.
