‘Strong’ start for college football underdogs
It was a wild weekend, which is exactly what was expected. If no heavyweight favorites fell, that would have been the surprise. But there were several upsets, and there was Charlie Strong threatening to knock off Notre Dame.
Midway through the fourth quarter Sunday night, Strong was standing in that gray area between hero and goat status. A Texas win was going to be a big boost for its rejuvenated coach. A Longhorns loss, after blowing a 17-point lead, was going to keep its beleaguered coach on the proverbial hot seat. The storyline was waiting to be written.
This is Overreaction Monday, when we jump to conclusions after watching the first weekend of the college football season. Next Monday, we will overreact to the NFL’s opening weekend.
What we can conclude — or so we think — is that Bob Stoops is under pressure again and we have heard the last of Oklahoma as a playoff contender.
“What we may have heard the last of is the coach,” said John Avello, Wynn Las Vegas sports book director. “My take on Oklahoma is the same every year. Stoops goes in with a solid team, and they usually falter late. At some point, when you have expectations that high, there’s got to be a change.”
The Sooners faltered early this time, falling as 13-point favorites in a 33-23 loss at Houston on Saturday. Stoops is not getting fired anytime soon, and neither is Strong.
After a bizarre back-and-forth fourth quarter, the Longhorns rallied to upend the Fighting Irish 50-47 in a two-overtime thriller. Tyrone Swoopes, who did not start at quarterback for Texas, ran for a touchdown in each overtime. The betting public backed Notre Dame as a favorite of 3½ to 4 points.
It’s a holiday weekend, which means tourists packed the books to bet football with both fists. What were they betting?
“All the favorites,” Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller said.
The public was all over Louisiana State, which flopped in spectacular fashion. The Tigers, 12½-point favorites, were upset 16-14 by Wisconsin at Lambeau Field.
The Badgers pulled off a stunner despite two huge mistakes by quarterback Bart Houston, who threw an interception in the end zone and another interception that was returned for a touchdown. The Badgers also won because the Tigers’ quarterback, Brandon Harris, was even worse.
LSU coach Les Miles, already on a hot seat for continually doing less with more talent, joined Stoops and Mike Leach as the biggest losers of the weekend. Leach is the swashbuckling coach at Washington State, a 27½-point home favorite in a 45-42 loss to Eastern Washington.
It was a good weekend to be a bookmaker, mostly because Oklahoma, LSU and Notre Dame fell victim to upsets and Clemson failed to cover.
Dabo Swinney almost joined the list of coaching losers with a highly questionable decision that created a strange point-spread result.
Clemson, which opened as a 7½-point favorite and closed laying 9, led 19-13 in the final minute when Swinney opted to go for it on fourth-and-4 from the 17-yard line instead of kicking a short field goal. The ball was turned over on downs, and the game ended with Auburn quarterback Sean White throwing a Hail Mary that was batted down.
Sorry, but it’s an overreaction to say the Southeastern Conference is way overrated. Aside from LSU’s loss, Florida and Tennessee looked weak. And Arkansas, a 21-point favorite, was lucky to beat Louisiana Tech 21-20.
Still, Nick Saban is always there to prop up the rest of the SEC. Alabama rolled Southern California 52-6 in a blowout that did not go the bookmakers’ way. The public piled on the Crimson Tide to cover as 13½-point favorites.
It’s not an overreaction to say it could be a long season in Los Angeles. A short time before USC was crushed, UCLA lost 31-24 in overtime at Texas A&M. The Rams will drop plenty of games, too.
Bruins sophomore quarterback Josh Rosen lost his poise against the Aggies’ blitz. The touch on his throws probably will be much sharper this week when UCLA is a 27-point favorite against UNLV at the Rose Bowl.
It’s not an overreaction for Avello to say this: “Houston could run the table.”
The Cougars’ odds to win the national championship were lowered from around 100-1 to 20-1 after Greg Ward Jr. passed for 321 yards and two touchdowns and Tom Herman proved he’s a big-game coach.
“Herman is a good coach, and Ward is a legit quarterback,” said Miller, who predicted Houston’s upset. “Stoops just got outcoached.”
Strong, a goat after two losing seasons, is suddenly a hero after one big Texas win. But that could change. One weekend tends to create some overreactions.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow @mattyoumans247 on Twitter.
