Steelers’ late TD deflating for most Pats bettors
With three minutes on the clock, Ben Roethlisberger held the football and the fates of millions of gamblers in his hands. There was only one reason to keep watching. The point-spread decision was in the air.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, 7-point underdogs, trailed by 14 as time ticked away. With two minutes remaining, Roethlisberger and the offense approached midfield. Seven seconds were left when he took a snap from the 11-yard line.
Not only is the point spread the equalizer, sometimes it’s the storyline and what keeps TV viewers from turning their eyes elsewhere.
“Unreal. It’s crazy,” said Chuck Esposito, Sunset Station sports book director, after Roethlisberger threw a touchdown dart to Antonio Brown in the back of the end zone with two seconds left.
It was a deflating moment for most bettors on the New England Patriots.
Tom Brady gripped fully inflated footballs and passed for four touchdowns — three to tight end Rob Gronkowski — in the Patriots’ 28-21 victory over Steelers in Thursday’s season opener. The NFL was back, and so was the point-spread drama. Get used to it, because it’s here to stay for the next five months.
It’s difficult to say who won or lost. Sharp bettors laying 2½, 3, 6 or 6½ points with the Patriots cashed tickets. All bets placed at 7 pushed. But the line briefly hit 7½ at some Las Vegas books before kickoff, so everyone who took Pittsburgh at the last minute got a gift for a backdoor cover, and anyone who laid 7½ with New England was a fool.
As written previously, I bet the Patriots twice, at minus-2½ and 3 in late July and early August, not knowing if Brady would be on the field. When his four-game suspension was nullified last week, laying a field goal or less became a bargain.
With two seconds left, we watched a fitting end to the most debated and discussed game of the summer at the books.
Esposito, who watched with a large party crowd at the casino, could only say for sure that the score staying under the closing total of 51½ (it dipped as low as 48½) was a positive result for bookmakers.
“We had a phenomenal crowd,” Esposito said. “Everybody is excited. There was definitely a good vibe and electricity in the sports book. I’m thrilled football is here.”
At the Westgate, book director Jay Kornegay said the wagering handle on the game indicated business is about to start booming.
“The action is hot and heavy,” Kornegay said. “People are finding ways to bet this game. Whether or not they had an opinion this morning, they had an opinion by 5:30 (p.m.)”
The action was lopsided in the Patriots’ favor. William Hill sports books reported New England drew 65 percent of the tickets and 77 percent of the money.
Brady passed for 288 yards, barely topping his proposition total of 280½. After a summer of discontent, his performance did not disappoint.
“The offseason distractions didn’t seem to affect Brady and ‘Gronk’ at all,” Esposito said. “You look at the Steelers, and you definitely have to say they missed opportunities.”
Pittsburgh converted a two-point conversion but missed two field-goal attempts and had to settle for a short kick after a second-half drive stalled at the 1-yard line.
Betting the NFL can be entertaining and sexy at times, but the truth is it’s a grind, similar to construction work, manning a factory assembly line or some other blue-collar job. Rarely is it easy money. You have to sweat out almost every game.
Good fortune is needed to beat the game in the long run, but just as in everyday life, you set yourself up for good luck by making consistently smart decisions.
Micah Roberts, an analyst for “The Linemakers” on SportingNews.com and a former book director, explained a three-point strategy bettors would be wise to follow.
* Avoid stacking teams on parlays. It’s sometimes OK to parlay two or three teams, but fair odds — and the chances of cashing out — fade when parlaying four or more teams.
“If Nevada was allowed to only do straight bets, these nice books would be hole-in-the-wall closets,” Roberts said. “Be conservative, consistent and don’t swing for the fences.”
* Take advantage of two-team teasers. However, don’t turn a 3-point favorite into a 3-point ‘dog and give value back to the bookmaker. Tease a 7- or 8-point favorite below a field goal, for example.
“Those teasers are the best value on the board, and that’s what the books don’t want you to play,” Roberts said. “The NFL line is the most precise rating in of all sports.”
* Use technology to get every edge. For most bettors, there’s no reason to drive up and down the Strip and all over town when phone accounts are available. The Steelers were plus-7 across town before kickoff, except at Station Casinos, where 7½ popped up. There are times when it will make a difference.
“No matter what dollar amount you bet,” Roberts said, “get a phone account and shop around for the best numbers.”
There are 15 more games in Week 1, and 12 of them are lined between 2½ and 4 points. Aside from New England, only Green Bay and Dallas are favored by a touchdown. This type of week sets up well for bookmakers.
“Three points basically says the teams are equal on a neutral field,” Roberts said. “It forces people to think a little harder and make tougher decisions.”
When wagering on the NFL, easy money is hard to find.
* CLOSING NUMBERS — Late-game luck was on my side in two backdoor covers, and the result was a 4-1 record on college football’s opening weekend. Here are five plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):
MISSISSIPPI STATE (+4) over Louisiana State; OHIO (+3) over Marshall; COLORADO STATE (+5½) over Minnesota; MICHIGAN (-15) over Oregon State; VIRGINIA (+12½) over Notre Dame.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
