Spieth has betting public seeing green
A green jacket is generally a questionable wardrobe choice. This weekend, however, it would be hip to wear one because it’s so tough to win one. After one day, it’s way too soon for Jordan Spieth to see a tailor.
If golf tournaments ended after 18 holes, this would be a popular result. Spieth, the betting public’s pick to win the Masters, threatened to run away from the pack during Thursday’s first round and walked into the Augusta National clubhouse with a three-stroke lead.
The foursome in his shadow — Jason Day, Ernie Els, Charley Hoffman and Justin Rose — included only one player who was expected to be a serious contender.
“Spieth is playing the best golf on the planet right now. I had Day as my No. 1 guy going into the tournament,” said Jeff Sherman, golf oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas sports book. “It’s absolutely no surprise to anybody that those two are up there.”
Sherman doubts either player falters, saying we could see Spieth and Day go “toe to toe” through the weekend.
“Day looks great,” said Pregame.com handicapper Brady Kannon, who picked Day to win this week. “Spieth looks unstoppable.”
Brian Blessing knows this is not the time to get carried away, because he knows there are 54 holes still to play over three grueling days, but his first-round impression was the same.
“It’s not reinventing the wheel, but from what we’ve seen, we might be looking at a match race. It looks like a two-horse race,” said Blessing (Sportsbookradio.com).
Of course, Spieth and Day are nowhere near the wire yet. Blessing, Kannon and Sherman all acknowledged as much. It’s too soon to type the “Jordan Rules” headline for Monday’s paper. A major is not won Thursday.
Sherman posted adjusted odds after the first round, and Spieth, who fired an 8-under 64, was the new favorite at 9-4 odds. At 10-1 going into the tournament, Spieth was No. 1 in the Westgate’s ticket count.
“The thing with Spieth is, and we’ve seen it time and time again, it’s usually the elasticity effect where the leader comes back a little the next day,” Sherman said. “He tends to come back and the pack gets bunched up.”
Day, adjusted to 5-1 after closing at 12-1, is the only player tied for second whom Kannon sees sustaining his opening-day success. The rain that was in the forecast never came, and the course was friendly to most players.
“That could be the easiest day you see for scoring,” said Kannon (@lasvegasgolfer on Twitter). “I do think the greens were a little soft and receptive, and I do think it’s going to get progressively tougher. It was a great day at the Masters, but I don’t think they want anybody to light up the course again.
“Els and Rose have been playing horribly this year. That tells you something about the scoring conditions if they are in red numbers. I don’t see that holding up for Els and Rose. One thing about this tournament, it’s not really a come-from-behind type of golf course. If you’re at even par, you’re really behind the 8-ball. I think you’ve got to be in red numbers right now. ”
After carding a 1-over 73 — better than his proposition total of 73½ — Tiger Woods is not in red numbers and will be fighting to make the cut.
“That would take Tiger out of the mix,” Kannon said.
But Woods being in the mix at all boosted a strong wagering handle by about 20 percent, said Sherman, who opened Woods at 50-1 odds and closed him at 15-1 because of overwhelming support.
“I didn’t want to go that low because I didn’t think it’s warranted,” Sherman said. “I said if Tiger finished in the top 20, that will be a great week. Whether he plays good or bad, he’s good for the game and good for the wagering handle.”
A bettor at a Westgate window Wednesday asked for a $10,000 wager on Woods at 25-1. In 20 years of golf oddsmaking, Sherman said Woods in this tournament is the largest liability he has ever faced on a player.
“It’s funny, the guy had a good practice round and he gets supported every which way,” said Sherman, who dropped Woods to 60-1 after the first round.
Hoffman, a former UNLV player, was first on the course Thursday and shot 67. His odds opened at 250-1 and closed at 150-1.
“We tend to get support for the guys who are local,” Sherman said. “We had 19 or 20 tickets on Hoffman.”
Phil Mickelson, six shots off the lead, always gets supported by the public, and his odds are holding steady at 25-1.
“It will be interesting to see what Mickelson does,” Kannon said. “He played a pretty nice round. I predicted a top-20 finish for him, and I will stick with that.”
Kannon said not to count out Sergio Garcia (12-1), Dustin Johnson (15-1), Patrick Reed (25-1), Paul Casey (30-1), Russell Henley (40-1) and Hideki Matsuyama (80-1).
“My longest of all long shots is Henley,” Kannon said. “I actually have a ticket on him at 140-1. I think the guy is pretty dialed in.”
Rory McIlroy, the pre-tournament favorite at 6-1, and Bubba Watson, the defending champion, each trail by seven shots. The adjusted odds show McIlroy at 10-1 and Watson at 20-1.
With tickets on Spieth and Day, I like my chances. But you never count your money or fit the leader for a green jacket after one day.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
