Soaring Broncos’ run stunning
One of these days, Tony Romo might put the puzzle pieces together and become a complete quarterback. For now, though, the leader of the Dallas Cowboys is perceived as a falling star.
Romo endured another tough Sunday. He was sacked five times, intercepted once and outplayed by Kyle Orton.
The Denver Broncos, after staging a comeback to upset the Cowboys 17-10, are 4-0. This development is not surprising — it’s stunning, even when considering Denver’s soft September schedule.
One month ago, Las Vegas sports books posted the Broncos’ regular-season win total at 61/2. The number was 71/2 before the betting experts pounded it under.
“That shows you how wacky the NFL is,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky’s sports books. “I can’t figure it out, and I don’t try to. I just write the tickets.”
The average person is more likely to be hit by lightning than attacked by a shark, but even less likely to consistently predict the NFL’s future.
Here’s the shocking fact of the week: Orton is 17-2 at home as a starter in the league. How is that possible?
It’s reality the Broncos are unbeaten because their defense ranks No. 1 in scoring, and because they beat Cincinnati, Cleveland and Oakland in the season’s first month. They opened October by dropping a legitimate Dallas team and roughing up Romo.
Dallas was a 3-point road favorite, but the line dropped to 21/2 at some books around town. “There was money on the Broncos from the sharps and squares,” Vaccaro said.
Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said betting action was evenly split on Dallas-Denver. Before the season, Kornegay said a colleague bet him the Broncos would be one of the five worst teams in the league. Kornegay, a Denver fan, took the bet and already has won it.
Only the Broncos and New Orleans Saints are 4-0 straight up and against the spread.
Only the Kansas City Chiefs are 0-4 straight up and against the spread. The Chiefs, 9-point home underdogs, were routed 27-16 by the New York Giants.
The Saints, 71/2-point home favorites, topped the New York Jets 24-10, covering the line on Pierre Thomas’ touchdown run with 6:07 left. The Jets’ Mark Sanchez finally looked like a rookie quarterback. Sanchez was sacked four times and had four turnovers, two that the New Orleans defense turned into touchdowns.
At the Hilton, the New England Patriots remain 4-1 favorites to win the Super Bowl. The Giants are at 8-1 odds, and the Saints 10-1.
“On a neutral field, I would make the Giants a favorite over the Saints,” said Vaccaro, who ranks the Giants as the NFL’s best team, followed by New England, Baltimore, New Orleans and Indianapolis.
The Patriots, 2-point home favorites, held on for a 27-21 win over the Ravens. Except for two dubious penalties and a crucial dropped pass in the final seconds, Baltimore was the better team. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco is unflappable, and it was impressive how he traded punches with Tom Brady.
What was unimpressive was the effort of the Tennessee Pansies. The Titans, 3-point favorites at Jacksonville, got whipped 37-17 to fall to 0-4.
Favorites are 9-4 against the spread in Week 4. Tennessee and Dallas were upset, and Cincinnati and Washington won but failed to cover.
“The public bet big-time on Tennessee and Cincinnati,” Kornegay said. “We did OK, not great. There were too many favorites again.”
There were some predictable blowouts: Houston over Oakland, Chicago over Detroit, Indianapolis over Seattle and San Francisco over St. Louis.
“I’ve been a parity guy for the past 30-some years, but the disparity between the good teams and the bad is really starting to show,” Vaccaro said. “The backdoor covers aren’t there, either.”
Pittsburgh, which closed as a 51/2-point favorite over San Diego, left the back door open and almost blew a 28-0 lead. But the Steelers won 38-28 and covered for the first time.
The Broncos’ biggest test arrives in Week 5, when they host the Patriots. Brady squares off against Champ Bailey, Brian Dawkins and Denver’s unforgiving defense.
The Patriots opened as 31/2-point favorites, and common sense might say lay the points. But how much do you believe in the Broncos?
Contact Las Vegas Review-Journal betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@ reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.
