Shaky Lakers, Cavs not sure things

Suspicious officiating and game-fixing conspiracies aside, there are several reasons to appreciate the NBA. The game is presently blessed with an abundance of great players, one being Kevin Durant.

The undisputed top dogs are Kobe Bryant and LeBron James, and if all goes according to plan, the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers are expected to finally collide in the NBA Finals.

It would be the ideal attraction for the league and its business partners, and Las Vegas sports books would benefit, too. But don’t blindly assume we’ll see the Kobe-LeBron showdown in June.

“Right now the Lakers are really a mystery,” Vegas Sports Authority handicapper Jim Kruger said. “I truly believe Orlando is going to beat Cleveland in the East.”

The defending champion Lakers are on wobbly legs, and the Western Conference playoff race is shaping up as a wild one, with each team winning at least 50 games in the regular season.

Before Bryant can think about James, the Lakers must get through Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder. It sounds easy enough, because a No. 8 seed upsets a No. 1 seed about as often as Conan O’Brien wins an arm wrestling contest.

But the 6-foot-9-inch Durant is no ordinary blossoming star. At age 21, he averaged 30.1 points to become the youngest NBA scoring champion.

Lakers coach Phil Jackson has a few other dilemmas. Starting center Andrew Bynum has been out since March 19 with an Achilles’ tendon injury, Bryant has been bothered by a broken right index finger, and the Lakers’ defensive efforts are usually too passive.

“The Lakers have been playing poorly,” Kruger said. “With the energy, athleticism and scoring of Oklahoma City, I could see the Thunder giving the Lakers some trouble.

“Will Kobe get his shooting touch back? How effective will Bynum be? Ron Artest is not the Artest from two or three years ago. The Lakers are still having problems scoring, and their perimeter defense in just not that good.”

The Lakers are minus-800 favorites over the Thunder in a best-of-7 series that tips Sunday in Los Angeles. The most logical story line: Durant will impress, but Bryant and the Lakers will advance in five or six games.

When betting individual games, keep in mind the always-inflated lines on the Lakers, who went 57-25 straight up but 34-46-2 against the spread. The Thunder (50-32) posted one of the league’s top ATS records at 48-34.

Kruger, who hit better than 60 percent of his NBA plays this season and ranked No. 1 in net wins with the Oklahoma Sports Monitor, said he likes fifth-seeded Utah’s chances to upend Denver.

The Nuggets, minus-170 series favorites, have lost some direction since coach George Karl had to take a leave for cancer treatments.

Dallas is a minus-160 favorite over San Antonio. The line indicates Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks will win in seven games.

Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire and the Phoenix Suns are serious contenders to win the West. The Suns are minus-500 favorites over Portland, which is without injured top gun Brandon Roy.

If there is a first-round upset in the East, Kruger expects it to come from the Boston-Miami series. Dwyane Wade led the Heat to an 18-4 straight-up record since March 1.

The Celtics, minus-180 favorites in the series, stumbled down the stretch as Kevin Garnett was mostly ineffective. Boston also posted the league’s worst ATS mark at 32-48-2.

“Boston’s normally formidable defense isn’t up to its past standards, as eight of their last nine opponents have bested the 100-point mark,” Kruger said. “I placed a wager on the Heat to win the series, considering the improvement Miami has made coupled with the decline of the Celtics since the All-Star break.”

As the playoffs unfold, watch how the return of Shaquille O’Neal impacts the Cavaliers. Dwight Howard and the Magic rocked Cleveland last year, and with point guard Jameer Nelson back to run the offense, Orlando is in position to repeat in the East.

“Shaq is coming back, but how the heck are these guys going to play together? Cleveland is not a cohesive team,” Kruger said. “I believe Orlando is the team to beat for the title.”

Durant is a huge part of the NBA’s future. Bryant and James are the face of the league now. But don’t be surprised if they all disappear and the Magic prove to be the best futures bet at 6-1 odds.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.