Rodgers, Packers justifiably favored to win Super Bowl
On one good leg, a hobbled Aaron Rodgers had enough to put the Green Bay Packers on the brink of the Super Bowl. Seven months later, he rolled into training camp on healthy wheels prepared to flush a bad memory.
It can be argued — and surely has been all summer at Wisconsin watering holes — that the Packers were the best team in the NFL last season. It never can be proven, of course. But, according to bettors and oddsmakers, the Packers deserve that label going into this season. It starts with the quarterback, a 31-year-old at the top of his game.
Tom Brady, who turns 38 today, is not going to be the top story forever. It just seems that way.
“This kid right now is the best quarterback in the league, with Brady right under him,” veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro said. “I’ve got Rodgers head and shoulders above everybody but Brady.”
In the court of public opinion, Rodgers is winning the popularity contest, and Vaccaro has the numbers to prove it. At the South Point sports book, Green Bay is the Super Bowl favorite at 4-1 odds and has attracted more than 700 tickets.
“The Packers right now are the leaders in the clubhouse,” Vaccaro said.
Seattle, the second choice at 5-1, has drawn about 500 tickets. The New England Patriots are not drawing much interest at all.
“Nobody is biting on them at 10-1,” Vaccaro said. “I don’t think it will be a cakewalk for the Patriots to get there, even if Brady plays all 16 games.”
When wagering on the NFL, the popular public side is often a booby trap. The Packers are that side in the first week of August, a favorite that looks like a lock — Rodgers’ health permitting — to make a Super Bowl run. I agree with public opinion on this one.
Elite teams typically deteriorate because of change. Green Bay returns all of its starters from the league’s highest-scoring offense. Rodgers, the reigning Most Valuable Player, will be protected by arguably the league’s best offensive line while throwing to an even better corps of receivers led by Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Eddie Lacy is a workhorse running back.
The Packers will be a constant as an offensive powerhouse, and it appears they will be stronger on defense, with their weakness last season being run defense.
Green Bay finished 12-4 — 8-0 at home and 5-1 in the division — after starting 1-2. The Packers should again romp through the NFC North, with a surprise challenger expected to emerge. Hint: It’s not Jay Cutler.
“The Vikings have been a fan favorite,” Vaccaro said.
Minnesota has received so much betting support on the futures board, its odds have been adjusted from 45-1 to 21-1. The Vikings’ regular-season win total opened at 6½ and has been bet to 7½ (Over minus-170). Bettors believe in coach Mike Zimmer and, more importantly, the return of running back Adrian Peterson.
“The Vikings are a team to watch,” said Bernie Fratto, ESPN Radio host in Las Vegas. “Yes, they don’t play an opponent with a 2014 losing record until Week 8, but they have a solid roster. Additionally, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater showed real progress, they drafted well while upgrading defensively, and that Peterson guy is back. That’s huge.
“I love Zimmer. Last year, he transformed a bland Cover-2 defense that was reactionary into an aggressive unit which showed multiple fronts and blitz packages that was capable of attacking from all angles. The Minnesota optimism should be tempered with the reality of an NFC West and AFC West schedule rotation, but I like their makeup and feel they will go 9-7 this season.”
Fratto (@BernieFratto on Twitter) is a former Lions radio host, but he calls it as he sees it, and he sees Detroit falling short of another fluke 11-win season.
“The Lions will come screaming back to earth, and the bubble will burst in September as their first four games are at San Diego, Minnesota and Seattle while hosting Denver at home in a Sunday night game,” Fratto said. “And for fun they get to visit St. Louis, New Orleans and Chicago on the road in December. The Lions, at best, will be 8-8. And that is far from a lock.”
Fratto is forecasting a 7-9 season in Chicago and an 11-5 record for Green Bay. John Fox is the new coach for the Bears, who are stuck with the same clumsy quarterback. In two meetings last season, the Packers outscored the Bears 93-31.
While looking at the South Point’s futures board handle, Vaccaro said, “This is the most we’ve ever written going into the first week of August. It’s ticket after ticket.”
It’s a lot of Green Bay tickets. But there are only 56 tickets on the Cleveland Browns, who have drawn the least interest. San Francisco is the biggest go-against team on the win totals board, with the 49ers dropping from 8½ to 7 (Under minus-180).
The Packers had nothing but trouble with San Francisco and Seattle in recent seasons. But this time around, the 49ers are fading and the Seahawks are going to Green Bay in Week 2.
On a January day in Seattle, the Packers held a 19-7 lead with three minutes remaining. After a highly improbable sequence of events, the Seahawks pulled out a 28-22 overtime win in the NFC title game as Rodgers limped into a long offseason.
My Super Bowl ticket on Green Bay at double-digit odds turned into toilet paper. Flush it and forget it.
I can argue the Packers will be the best team in the NFL again this season.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
