QB Cook gives Michigan State chance against Alabama
It’s no cinch Connor Cook will be a quality starter in the NFL, a league desperately in need of a few good quarterbacks. But he’s about to audition for the role, and the stage he gets to take on New Year’s Eve is about as big as it gets.
One season after a Big Ten underdog rolled over Alabama in the College Football Playoff, Michigan State replaces Ohio State in the sequel. It typically takes a great passer to beat the Crimson Tide, so Cook gives the Spartans a shot.
Of the 40 bowl games on the betting board, the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas, is attracting the most action. Alabama, which has magnetizing appeal to the betting public, is a 9½-point favorite at most books.
“It’s the bowl game that has the most tickets on it so far. Surprisingly, we have more tickets on Michigan State,” Westgate Las Vegas sports book director Jay Kornegay said. “But history tells us there’s always going to be a lot of love for the Crimson Tide, and that could push the line over 10.”
If you like the Spartans, as I do, wait for the line to reach double digits or go today to MGM Resorts, the first books on the Strip to go to 10. It’s often said that only degenerates walk into a sports book on Christmas, but I’ll never say it. Still, it might be OK to wait, because we could see 10½ by kickoff Thursday night.
“Where is the big money going to go? I don’t know. It remains to be seen,” Kornegay said. “That’s going to be the determining factor in where the line will end up.”
An educated guess is the public will side with the Crimson Tide, mostly because everyone knows Nick Saban’s name. Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is a different story — Sports Illustrated called him “Mike” on a recent cover. Saban has a track record of paying off bettors, too.
In college, there always are students who wait until the last night to cram for a final exam. It’s doubtful Saban ever did that. If you give him extra time to prepare, he’s even tougher to beat. But the Buckeyes beat him last season with a team similar to the Spartans of this season.
Michigan State has a defensive front that doubles as a brick wall. On the flip side, Alabama running back Derrick Henry, the Heisman Trophy winner, is a wrecking ball. In the Crimson Tide’s past two victories over Florida and Auburn, Henry had 44- and 46-carry games. He will get handed another huge workload in this game.
It shapes up as a grinder, which makes taking 10 points or more intriguing. The Spartans used a 22-play drive to beat Iowa in the Big Ten title game on Dec. 5. Cook, who was not himself with a shoulder injury, has had time to heal.
Cook is a winner, too. The fifth-year senior has a 34-4 career record, including 2-0 in bowl games. He has 24 touchdown passes with five interceptions this season, and he’ll need to sling it around to spread out an Alabama defense that stymies the run.
It was not just coachspeak when Saban said Cook, a pocket passer, is probably the best quarterback his defense has faced this season. I’ll take double digits with the underdog in the second semifinal of the playoff.
The early semifinal showcases two dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks. Clemson, with Deshaun Watson, is a 3½-point underdog to Oklahoma and Baker Mayfield. The top-ranked and undefeated Tigers are getting no respect in the betting market. I’ll take a wait-and-see approach to this matchup, which could be more complicated than it looks for the Sooners.
This is a sequel to a minor bowl last season, when Clemson was an underdog and embarrassed Oklahoma 40-6. In the rematch, the big money is on the Sooners’ side so far.
The bowl season is always full of bizarre events. The Las Vegas Bowl was the craziest game of the first week, with Utah taking a 35-0 first-quarter lead and holding on to beat Brigham Young 35-28.
There have been several shootouts and a few blowouts. The Mountain West is 2-0 in the blowout category, with Boise State bashing Northern Illinois 55-7 in the Poinsettia Bowl on Wednesday before San Diego State slaughtered Cincinnati 42-7 in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve.
The Aztecs, laying 2½ points, covered to make favorites 7-5 against the spread in the first 12 bowls. Last season, underdogs finished 24-14 ATS in the bowl season, according to results tracked by handicapper Andy Iskoe (Thelogicalapproach.com).
Conference matchups are rare in bowls, but the Mountain West has one of those with Colorado State facing UNR in the Arizona Bowl. The Rams are 3-point favorites on Tuesday.
“So far, we have one ticket on Nevada for $45,” said Kornegay, who counted about 30 tickets on Colorado State.
Southern California is a popular play with the public and sharps, drawing about 90 percent of the tickets at the Westgate and William Hill books. The Trojans have moved from 3- to 3½-point favorites over Wisconsin in next week’s Holiday Bowl.
“It doesn’t look like we’re going to get much action on Wisconsin. We don’t have a total of $100 on the Badgers,” Kornegay said. “Looking through these bowl games, with a few of them I can see a storm brewing.”
North Carolina is getting most of action against Baylor in the Russell Athletic Bowl. The public also is siding with Louisiana State over Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl. By kickoff on New Year’s Eve, the public probably will be all over Alabama, too.
CLOSING NUMBERS — I started 1-2 in the bowls, with these plays remaining from last week’s picks: UCLA (-6½) over Nebraska; Colorado State (-3) over UNR; USC (-3) over Wisconsin; Oregon (Pick) over Texas Christian.
I’m adding three plays: North Carolina (-2½) over Baylor; Michigan State (+10) over Alabama; Notre Dame (+6½) over Ohio State.
— Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
