Preseason homework starts with quarterback rotations
Some people say it’s insane to bet on NFL preseason games. Plenty of others beg to differ. But most would agree it’s just crazy to bet on the Arizona Cardinals if Kevin Kolb is their starting quarterback.
After 181 days without football, point-spread drama returned Sunday night, when an interception at the goal line decided the Hall of Fame Game at Canton, Ohio.
Drew Brees led a touchdown drive in his only series, backup Chase Daniel outplayed all of the Cardinals’ quarterbacks, and the New Orleans Saints held on to win and cover, 17-10.
The Saints opened as 3-point favorites and the line closed at 2½ at most Las Vegas sports books. The total was bet from 35 to 37. So the money moves were wrong on the side and total. But for bettors and the books, the preseason opener was more for entertainment purposes and less about serious wagering.
“We took about as much money on the football game as we had on the Yankees game,” Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert said. “It was like a high-level baseball game.”
Baseball betting begins with the starting pitchers, and quarterbacks are the starting point when handicapping preseason games.
The Cardinals’ QBs were clumsy, especially Kolb, whose first pass was intercepted. Soon after, he was knocked out of the game by Saints defensive lineman Sedrick Ellis, who might or might not have collected a bounty for the hit. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is probably investigating.
With a shot to win – or at least cover – inside the 10-yard line in the last two minutes, Arizona blew it when Ryan Lindley threw an interception.
The bottom line is football betting is back, and it’s good to see. The Olympics are tough to watch, in my opinion, and you can’t wager on them in Nevada anyway. I’ll watch any football game in August instead of badminton, fencing, water polo or women’s weightlifting.
I’ll admit to tuning into some beach volleyball and basketball, but that’s it. Bring on the Cleveland Browns, who have an interesting quarterback duel brewing between rookie Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy.
The NFL preseason is not for everyone, but the games do attract sharp and public money. The sharp money moves the numbers, sometimes by 3 to 4 points.
“I know a few guys who think they can beat it, but you have to get the numbers early. In my opinion, if you’re going to beat the preseason, you have to get some of the early numbers,” Colbert said. “You will see games with crazy moves.”
The moves are based, Colbert said, “purely on information.” The info out of Saints training camp was that Brees would play one series, two at the most, and that proved accurate. Brees’ first series was so good that he didn’t need two.
“In some of the games, certain quarterbacks don’t play at all,” Colbert said. “There are a lot of question marks. A lot of the info, I wouldn’t even trust it.”
New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick rarely reveals any information about which starters are playing and for how long. Some other coaches are more transparent. Digging for reliable details, by reading newspapers online or following NFL beat writers on Twitter, is a key.
For many bettors, studying quarterback rotations is the first step to doing preseason homework.
I rank the Dallas Cowboys’ quarterback depth chart as the strongest. Even if starter Tony Romo makes only cameo appearances, backups Kyle Orton, Stephen McGee and Rudy Carpenter are more than capable of moving the offense. Orton, 35-34 in his career as a starter, might be the best No. 2 in the league.
Tim Tebow will get plenty of work behind Mark Sanchez, making the New York Jets intriguing to follow, if nothing else. Jason Campbell, a former starter in Oakland, is Jay Cutler’s backup in Chicago.
Sixteen games are on the betting board in Week 1 of the preseason. Cantor Gaming accepts written limits of $10,000 on game day in the preseason, compared to $100,000 on a regular-season game. That indicates even bookmakers fear the unknown in the preseason.
The Saints get only three days off before turning around and playing at New England on Thursday. But don’t get too hyped for a Brees-Tom Brady shootout.
Some sources say Brady might not play because Belichick wants to see backups Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett battle it out. That’s just pure speculation, however, not reliable information.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
