Preseason dynamics unique

Another of America’s great traditions appears doomed. In the estimation of NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, a four-game preseason schedule is useless.

It’s as archaic as the rotary-dial phone, the typewriter and Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis.

Goodell’s tour of training camps this month confirmed what he already suspected. Ben Roethlisberger is a better man. And the fans, Goodell said, “made it incredibly clear that they don’t like preseason games.”

The betting public is always split on this issue.

“There is a part of the public that says, ‘Why would you ever bet preseason football?’ And there are others who say, ‘Preseason is the best time to bet,’ ” Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said.

Indeed, many will argue the NFL preseason is impossible to take seriously, sort of like Geraldo Rivera or that mindless reality show featuring Bruce Jenner and the Kardashians.

But I also know of wiseguys who lost several thousand dollars on the Super Bowl, which all bettors take seriously, and some of the preseason games are easier to handicap. Betting limits and totals are just lower, and rarely is a favorite giving more than 3½ points.

“Understand the dynamics of the preseason versus the dynamics of the regular season and you have a chance to win,” veteran handicapper Kelso Sturgeon said. “And, yes, I bet the preseason and can’t wait until (today) arrives when I will make my first big play.”

The uncertainty of the preseason can be a bettor’s friend. A lot of times, oddsmakers are taking calculated guesses. Do thorough homework on the Internet and you can dig up information not always figured into the number. Watch for line moves that are often sharp and based on late information.

How much playing time will each coach give his starters? Who are the backup quarterbacks, and how experienced are they?

“The first, second and fourth weeks are played under rules far different from those of the regular season,” said Sturgeon (Kelsosportshandicapping.com). “Only in the third week, when teams fire up their first teams on offense and defense to fine-tune all the parts, is there anything resembling what you can expect when the real season begins.”

Sturgeon calls the first week, “organized chaos,” the second week an “experimentation” and the final week an exercise in avoiding injuries.

“Some coaches like to win these games, while others simply don’t care about the outcome,” he said. “It is extremely important to know the quarterback rotation of each team and how long each coach intends to play his first units on both offense and defense.”

Miami Dolphins coach Tony Sparano is 7-1 in his two preseasons, and his quarterback rotation of Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen, Chad Pennington and Pat White is solid.

It could be ugly early for the Carolina Panthers, whose coach, John Fox, has put little emphasis on winning in the preseason. The Panthers’ starting quarterback is Matt Moore, and backups Hunter Cantwell, Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike have no experience.

With Joe Flacco, Marc Bulger and Troy Smith, the Baltimore Ravens boast one of the league’s best quarterback depth charts.

There are only three new coaches this season — Buffalo’s Chan Gailey, Seattle’s Pete Carroll and Washington’s Mike Shanahan. Carroll will want to win, and the Seahawks have covered 10 consecutive preseason games. Shanahan had a strong track record for 14 years in Denver, posting marks of 40-20 straight up and 32-24-4 against the spread.

Sturgeon, who’s siding with the Redskins as 3½-point home favorites over the Bills today, said, “You can count on Shanahan to report in with a win. His ego will not let him lose in his first outing as Washington’s coach. I also like the fact Gailey has not shown much interest in winning in the preseason, going 1-9 when he was head coach at Dallas.”

Also, try to ignore your perception of how strong each team will be in the regular season.

“Last but not least,” Sturgeon said, “do not get carried away by what a team does in the preseason. Just keep reminding yourself the Detroit Lions went 7-1 in the past two preseasons.”

Goodell plans to stick to a 20-game format. But he wants a reduction to two preseason games and an increase to 18 regular-season games.

That could give the Indianapolis Colts even more time to rest starters and throw games in December.

■ BOTTOM LINES — Respected oddsmaker Ken White is now the former chief operating officer of Las Vegas Sports Consultants. Cantor Gaming, which owns LVSC, fired White last week. More on this story is coming soon.

Another tradition is history, at least for now. The Vegas Insider handicapping seminar, which for several years kicked off the betting season in August, was canceled this year.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.