Pitino’s plan puts public on wrong side of wager
It’s obvious Rick Pitino has a few character flaws, and we found that out for certain when a skeleton from his closet was revealed to the public three years ago. In the time since, Pitino has worked to polish his image.
Like him or not, the Louisville basketball coach still is pretty sharp with Xs and Os, and the betting public was reminded of that Thursday.
Pitino remained flawless in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16, running his record in this round to 10-0 by coaching the Cardinals to a 57-44 victory over Michigan State, the West Region’s top seed.
The only thing worse than watching an ugly game is holding a losing ticket on it, and I was with the public on the wrong end of this one.
“That was the biggest-bet game of the four, by far,” Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert said. “It was all Michigan State.”
The bettors were all over the Spartans, of course. As far as the game, the Cardinals ruled because, as Colbert said, “Pitino had a great plan.”
Colbert predicted it, too, citing Pitino’s spotless Sweet 16 history and several other factors that proved prophetic. Louisville closed as a 5-point underdog and plus-190 on the money line at Cantor’s books, and the line was as high as 5½ to 6 at other spots.
In-running wagering — by now a more familiar concept in which the point spread, money line and total are adjusted and re-posted at various stages throughout the game — is a tool most professional bettors use when available, and Cantor frequently offers it.
Just for fun, I monitored the in-running lines at the M Resort, where Colbert was sitting in a back room, for Thursday’s first two games. The changing lines can be fascinating to follow as momentum shifts and teams go on runs.
There were few big runs in the Louisville-Michigan State affair, and by the end of the night Tom Izzo was looking about as defeated as Karen Sypher.
But the point is to illustrate how the numbers move during a game, so here’s a brief recap:
■ Leading 20-15 late in the first half, Louisville was plus-125 on the money line and plus-2 (minus-106) on the point spread for the full game. The total was dropped from 125½ to 105½.
■ Seven minutes into the second half, Louisville led 35-25 and its money-line price went up to minus-389, with Michigan State getting plus-294. The Cardinals were adjusted to 5-point favorites.
■ Two minutes later, Draymond Green dunked to pull the Spartans within 35-31, and Pitino called timeout. New money-line prices were posted on Louisville (minus-150) and Michigan State (plus-122).
(As it turned out, that would have been the right time to play the Cardinals, because Pitino’s timeout stopped the momentum shift.)
■ Louisville reeled off the next seven points, and with just under nine minutes to go, the Cardinals were minus-907 to win and the Spartans were plus-574.
(To summarize, a $150 bet on Louisville at the 11-minute mark paid off $100. About two minutes later, a bettor had to lay $907 to win $100 on Louisville.)
Five full days into the NCAA Tournament, there have been no buzzer-beating shots to win and no overtime games, but there have been some dramatic endings.
“It’s been a good tournament,” Colbert said. “The first day was kind of boring, but the games have gotten better. In this round, every matchup is phenomenal.”
Syracuse and Wisconsin battled to the buzzer Thursday. But the Badgers’ Jordan Taylor air-balled a long 3-pointer with three seconds left, and like clockwork, the Orange escaped with a 64-63 victory.
Wisconsin, which was getting 3½ points, Florida and Louisville made it a 3-1 day for the underdogs. Ohio State, a 7½-point favorite, overwhelmed Cincinnati, 81-66.
The Buckeyes salvaged an otherwise dark day for the Big Ten, which was four-strong going into the Sweet 16 but is about to be reduced to one.
For the record, Colbert likes Kentucky as a 9- to 9½-point favorite over Indiana today. The line opened at 8½. Cantor’s current line is 10, but that is subject to change throughout the game, and I’m betting on the revenge-minded Wildcats running the Hoosiers ragged.
“So far, it’s all public money,” Colbert said. “But I do think Kentucky is the sharp side.”
Pitino’s plan worked to perfection, and made those of us on Michigan State feel like squares.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
