Pitino, Louisville have shot to hang with Kentucky
Not to suggest it should happen, but some are speculating that Kentucky freshmen Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could be taken 1-2 in this summer’s NBA Draft.
So it will be that much more impressive when Louisville upsets the Wildcats on Saturday in New Orleans. Not to suggest that will happen, either, but we’ve seen stranger things in the NCAA Tournament through the years.
The bracket this March has stuck mostly to the script, with the fourth-seeded Cardinals, who won the Big East Conference tournament, serving as the big surprise of the Final Four.
“I don’t want to say it’s been a dull tournament, but it has not been real compelling,” Cal Neva sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “Hopefully, it will finish with a bang.”
Louisville taking down Kentucky would trigger a sonic boom. The Wildcats are so loaded with NBA talent that some reasonable people think they could beat the Charlotte Bobcats and Washington Wizards.
As for the Cardinals, as Rick Pitino might say, Darrell Griffith and Pervis Ellison are not walking through that door.
Last weekend, I would not have bet against Kentucky with counterfeit money. I felt Baylor and Indiana each had essentially no chance to win and little chance to cover against the Wildcats.
This weekend, it’s a little different. Because of Pitino and the rivalry and the pressure on John Calipari to finally win a title, betting against Kentucky does not seem crazy.
“I think you will definitely see some two-way action on that game,” Bogdanovich said. “The number is high enough.”
The Wildcats are 8½- to 9-point favorites, and Las Vegas handicappers Bryan Leonard (Footballwinners.com) and Ken Thomson (SportsXRadio.com) are of the opinion the line is a little too high.
“It’s pretty clear Kentucky is the most talented team in the country, as the experts as well as the man on the street are singing their praises. Louisville isn’t the most talented team, but they play well together, and the rivalry aspect in this game means much more to the underdog,” said Leonard, adding that he’s “not about to lay an inflated price on a public favorite.”
It would be suicide for the Cardinals if they get into a track meet in transition with the Wildcats. That point is pretty obvious, and you can bet Pitino is aware of it. Kentucky won the first meeting 69-62 on New Year’s Eve in Lexington.
“Don’t get into a running game,” Thomson said. “Kentucky is good enough, it could be over quick. I’m not saying the Cardinals win, but I think they will give themselves a chance to win. I think it’s going to be a 5-point game.”
Leonard is looking under the total, which ranges from 136½ at the LVH to 138 at Cal Neva, Coast and Station Casinos to 138½ at MGM Resorts.
“These two coaches know each other well, and Louisville plays a brand of defense the Wildcats rarely see,” Leonard said. “The Wildcats have been running the opposition out of the building in this tournament, and it makes a great deal of sense. If you have the more talented team, your advantage grows with every extra possession. But the Louisville coaching staff is way too smart to fall into that trap.”
If it seems scoring has been down in the NCAA Tournament, handicapper Andy Iskoe (TheLogicalApproach.com) has the numbers to back up the theory. Thirty-eight of the 64 games went under the total, with 25 overs and one push. The unusual shooting backdrop in the cavernous Superdome could contribute to keeping scores down.
“Kentucky is coming off a game where they looked unbeatable,” Bogdanovich said. “I’ve watched Louisville all year, and they have turned in some ugly offensive performances. We’ll see if the coaching mastermind Pitino can come up with a game plan to neutralize that talent. I’m not a big Pitino fan, but you’ve got to give him credit.
“I’ve never seen a tournament where the public has backed the underdogs as much as they did this year. That is one strange thing I have seen from this tournament.”
According to Iskoe’s records, tournament favorites are 44-19 straight up and 30-31-2 against the spread, with one game charted as a pick. What that means is the oddsmakers are evening the score.
All the hype is about Louisville-Kentucky, so much so that a heavyweight battle between Kansas and Ohio State is overshadowed. Oddsmakers probably got that right, too, because the Buckeyes opened as 2½-point favorites and the line has not moved.
The Jayhawks were lucky to avoid elimination against North Carolina, North Carolina State and Purdue. It’s time for their luck to run out.
It’s not crazy to bet against Kentucky on Saturday, but odds are the Wildcats will survive a scare from Pitino and advance to meet Ohio State on Monday.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
