Patriots clear favorites in flawed field
In three weeks, the Super Bowl matchup will be set, and it’s a reasonable bet that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will be in one half of the bracket.
The NFL’s nightmare would be to see the Seattle Seahawks in the other half. It’s a moot point, but we can dream about what the opening line would be for that game. New England by 17½ or maybe more?
Seventeen weeks after this guessing game started, the Patriots lead the 12-team playoff pack. The Seahawks bring up the rear.
"I can’t believe Seattle is in the playoffs," M Resort sports book director Mike Colbert said. "You should have to be at least 8-8 to get in. The NFL will have to put in some kind of rule."
Enough about the Seahawks, who snuck through the back door at 7-9 by beating the inept St. Louis Rams and winning the NFC West, a division that Auburn, Oregon or Texas Christian might have dominated.
The league’s top two teams are in the AFC, where the Patriots (14-2) and Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) look to be on a collision course. Colbert said New England is a 9-5 favorite to win it all, and Sunday offered another reminder of how unwise it is to bet against Brady.
In the Patriots’ 38-7 drilling of the Miami Dolphins, Brady put the finishing touches on his finest accomplishment since his courtship of Gisele Bundchen. He ends the regular season with 36 touchdown passes and four interceptions. He also won his 28th consecutive regular-season home start.
New England rested its top three receivers, and Randy Moss was traded long ago. Still, it was 31-0 when Brady left the game with 11:30 remaining in the third quarter.
"The Patriots are like any corporation right now that’s asked to do more with less," MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood said. "The Patriots just keep winning, and they’re doing more with less."
Brady is the easiest Most Valuable Player selection in recent memory. The top defensive player in the league is Steelers safety Troy Polamalu.
New England was favored by 4 to 5 points over Miami. The Patriots were a Week 17 bargain at that number, and the same was true with Pittsburgh, a 6-point favorite in a 41-9 victory at Cleveland.
"I do think the Patriots are the best team right now, but I surely think they are beatable," Colbert said. "I don’t think anyone but the Patriots can beat the Steelers."
Eight favorites and eight underdogs covered Sunday, putting the final count at 127-118-8 (with three pick’em games) for the ‘dogs.
Rood said it was a "rough" day for his books with "too many favorites covering big." Colbert said things went well, mostly because Oakland upset Kansas City and Washington covered in a 17-14 loss to the New York Giants.
"We probably had fewer big decisions than any week during the year. Our biggest decision was Oakland," said Colbert, who runs Cantor Gaming’s four books, including those at the Cosmopolitan, Hard Rock and Tropicana. "The last week of the regular season is kind of a potluck deal. We got through it."
The Raiders went 6-0 in the AFC West but missed the postseason. The San Diego Chargers, who were favored to win the division, closed with a 33-28 victory over Denver. When the Broncos cut their deficit to 13 points in the fourth quarter and should have attempted a 2-point conversion, they sent out the kicker, proving that Norv Turner was not the only clueless coach on the field.
"If there’s a spot for San Diego to give up, this was it," Rood said.
Dallas has been good at winning meaningless games, too. The Cowboys opened as underdogs but closed as small favorites in a 14-13 win at Philadelphia.
In the AFC wild-card round, Baltimore is a 2½-point favorite at Kansas City, and Indianapolis is a 3-point favorite over the New York Jets.
"The Jets should be a small favorite. I think it’s the wrong favorite in the game," Colbert said. "It’s a bad matchup for the Colts."
In the NFC, the Eagles are 2½-point favorites over Green Bay, while Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints opened offshore as 10½-point favorites at Seattle.
"It won’t be an easy game for the Saints," said Colbert, who was surprised by the double-digit line.
The seven-win Seahawks are the surprise team in the postseason party, and here’s hoping they run into Brady in the Super Bowl.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
