Packers-and-over makes it big day for betting public
All he wanted, Ben Roethlisberger said before the Super Bowl, was the ball in his hands and a shot to win at the end for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Roethlisberger got his wish, and bettors on both sides of the line anxiously wondered what would happen next.
Blowouts in the NFL’s biggest game are becoming a thing of the past, thankfully. We’re getting spoiled by drama. The stage was all set for another memorable finish Sunday.
But Big Ben fired a blank. One drive from total redemption, in a season that started with his suspension, Roethlisberger came up far short.
It felt as if it was meant to end this way, with Aaron Rodgers making Brett Favre yesterday’s news and Roethlisberger a first-time Super Bowl loser.
“Rodgers was the better quarterback, and I think that was the difference,” M Resort sports book director Mike Colbert said. “I think Rodgers proved he’s one of the elite, one of the top three quarterbacks in the league.”
To little surprise, Rodgers surpassed all his major proposition totals, completing 24 of 39 passes for 304 yards and three touchdowns to ensure the Green Bay Packers delivered the cash as 2½-point favorites in a 31-25 victory over the Steelers.
Roethlisberger rolled in with the experience edge. But Rodgers continued to play the hottest hand at the poker table.
Public opinion made the Packers the favorites, and the public essentially made all the right moves in this one. Green Bay set a fast pace early, building a 21-3 lead, and the score flew over the total of 45. Parlays linking the Packers and the over dealt every Las Vegas sports book a setback to some degree.
“The worst scenario was favorite and over,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky’s sports books. Vaccaro called the game a “modest loss.”
The bettors took a butt whipping for most of the NFL regular season. The roles reversed in the postseason, and overwhelming support for the Packers was a source of the irritation for book directors such as Jay Rood of MGM Resorts.
“It was a rough day,” Rood said. “It was the worst Super Bowl that I’ve been a part of. That’s an accurate statement.”
There were reports of at least three $1 million bets on the game, two on the Packers. Colbert said Cantor Gaming, which operates four books, took $1 million bets on each side Sunday.
Colbert said Cantor was a winner, making it an exception, mostly because he lined it at Green Bay minus-2½ and minus-135 instead of minus-120 like a majority of books.
“There definitely was Steelers money out there at the right number,” Colbert said, “and 2½ plus-115 was the number you could get as much Steelers money as you wanted. We took some really big bets. We took a boatload of Steelers money, and they bet us under 45.”
But the books taking more public action, and maybe a smaller volume of wagers, were stuck with Packers-and-over parlays, and a nightmare.
“The worst-case scenario came in, so we’re going to end up being a small loser,” Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said. “All the sharp guys lost, because they were taking the under and the Steelers.”
In the Super Bowl, public money dwarfs the sharp play, and it’s usually a winning formula for the books The Nevada wagering handle of $82.7 million for last year’s game should be topped, but it’s possible the state’s books will show a loss for only the second time in 16 years.
A state-record $94.5 million was wagered on the game in 2006. Colbert, who said Cantor’s handle exceeded $10 million on the Packers-Steelers matchup, was alone in making a bold forecast.
“I’m going to be very surprised if the record doesn’t get broken,” he said. “Maybe I’m crazy. But I’m going to guess $95 million to $100 million.”
The Steelers were trailing 21-17 but building momentum when running back Rashard Mendenhall fumbled on the first play of the fourth quarter. Eight plays later, Rodgers passed for his third touchdown.
“If you can call one play a key turning point, maybe it was the Mendenhall fumble,” Vaccaro said. “To some degree, it was sloppily played on the Steelers’ part.”
I bet the underdog, over the total and won four of five prop bets. So I’m not complaining. But I expected a better performance from Roethlisberger, who threw two early interceptions and flopped late.
“He stunk in the first half,” Colbert said. “But I thought Rodgers was tremendous.”
Roethlisberger got his wish. But in the end, Rodgers and the Packers played to the script the betting public predicted.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
