Oddsmakers wary of siding with favored Mountain West teams
When he was washing dishes at a seafood restaurant five years ago, Anthony Johnson was an unlikely candidate to play a starring role in this NCAA Tournament. But his story is not a fish tale.
Johnson will lead Montana against New Mexico in an East Region first-round game on Thursday. Predictably, the Grizzlies are underdogs. Don’t count them out, though.
"Montana is a ‘dog that I think has a good chance," Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Ken White said.
In the Big Sky Conference title game, Johnson, a senior guard, scored 34 of his 42 points in the second half as the Grizzlies overcame a 20-point deficit to beat Weber State, 66-65. More on Johnson later.
New Mexico is one of a record four Mountain West Conference teams to make the NCAA’s 65-team field. Two of those teams are favorites.
LVSC opened the Lobos as 10-point favorites over Montana, and the line dropped to 9 on Sunday night, when the sharpest bettors were picking off what they perceived to be the best numbers.
Brigham Young, carried by sharp-shooting guard Jimmer Fredette, opened as a 3½-point favorite over Florida. The Cougars struggled to beat Texas Christian in the MWC tournament before falling to UNLV in the semifinals.
White said the Gators, who survived the NCAA bubble, are quicker, more athletic and capable of a minor upset.
"BYU just didn’t impress me against TCU and UNLV. If you can put some pressure on Jimmer, they could be in trouble because they don’t have a real strong No. 2 scorer," White said. "I think Florida has got a great shot to win that game."
Fredette was phenomenal last week in Las Vegas, scoring a total of 75 points in two games. But New Mexico was not at its best, barely holding off Air Force and losing to San Diego State.
The Aztecs, whose No. 11 seed was lower than expected, are 3½-point underdogs to Tennessee. LVSC opened the Rebels as 1½-point underdogs to Northern Iowa, but the Las Vegas Hilton and MGM Mirage sports books posted the line at pick’em.
The wrong team might have opened as the favorite in the Gonzaga-Florida State game. LVSC opened the Bulldogs minus-1½, but the line shifted to the Seminoles’ side (-1) at the Hilton.
"I think Florida State, which has got far superior athletes, is going to end up being the favorite," White said. "The Zags, as I’ve said most of the year, they’re not as good as people think."
How good is Purdue without injured forward Robbie Hummel, the team’s most valuable player?
Greg Anthony, a CBS analyst and former UNLV star, made this Las Vegas-themed statement when the brackets were unveiled: "Could we possibly have a scenario where a 13 seed is favored over a 4 seed?"
But the Boilermakers, who have won 11 consecutive NCAA first-round games, opened as 4-point favorites over Siena. When various TV analysts made predictions, the Saints were a popular upset pick.
"That’s going to be an interesting game because I’m sure Purdue, which is getting no respect, is going to be ready to play," White said. "They are a lame-duck team because they lost Hummel, but that’s still a really talented team."
Butler, a No. 5 seed, is favored by just 2½ points over Texas-El Paso, but White made the line 5.
The Bulldogs, 28-4 and 18-0 in the Horizon League, boast four double-digit scorers in Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack, Matt Howard and Willie Veasley. The Miners are led by high-scoring guard Randy Culpepper and forward Derrick Caracter.
"I do like Butler. That’s the kind of team you want to bet on," White said. "I love their frontcourt with Howard and Hayward."
In another intriguing matchup, White gives Oklahoma State, a 1-point favorite over Georgia Tech, a slight nod.
"I thought Oklahoma State has the edge just because of James Anderson, the best player on the court," White said.
Three more underdogs to watch, White said, are Morgan State (+17½) against West Virginia, Oakland (+10½) against Pittsburgh and Wofford (+10) against Wisconsin.
And don’t forget about Montana and its unlikely star.
Johnson was washing dishes and saving money to buy a car in 2005, when his future wife lobbied to get him a junior-college tryout. He already has made a great underdog story, and it could get better.
Contact Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.
