Not even Saints immune in wacky NFL season
If it seems the NFL has been turned upside down, everything is as it seems. The New Orleans Saints are no longer on top, and Drew Brees just lost to an undrafted rookie quarterback.
The knee-jerk reaction would be to grab a shovel, dig a 6-foot hole and begin to throw dirt on the Saints. It’s way too early for that.
But the Saints are begging to be buried, at least in terms of Super Bowl talk, and so are the Dallas Cowboys.
"It has been a peculiar year so far, I must say," Wynn Las Vegas sports book director John Avello said.
The peculiarity is apparent in so many ways. But what does it say when Brees throws three interceptions and the defending champion Saints get upset 30-20 by the Arizona Cardinals?
The lowly Cardinals, off a 31-point loss to San Diego, were starting Max Hall from Brigham Young at quarterback. Fifteen quarterbacks were drafted this year, and Arizona took one of them, but Hall never got called. Still, he was a winner over Brees in Week 5.
The Chargers, who made the Cardinals seem like a Tiny Football League team a week ago, went to Oakland and got ambushed by the Raiders, 35-27. According to the MVPelite.com power poll produced by former oddsmaker Kenny White, San Diego was the No. 1 team in the league.
Listen again to the broken record: Underdogs own the early portion of this season — 46-25-3 against the spread.
Underdogs went 9-4 ATS on Sunday, and what is remarkable is no points were needed because all nine ‘dogs won straight up.
"I’ve never seen it like this in 35 years," said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky’s sports books. "I’ve seen it the other way when the favorites just wipe you out for a month or a month and a half. I don’t think it will stay this way, but who knows?
"The trend has been with the ‘dogs. It shows the level of competition is evening out. That doesn’t mean the Saints are going to get beat by the Cardinals every Sunday."
It doesn’t take a brain surgeon, or any other highly intelligent professional, to figure out the books enjoyed another super Sunday.
"When you knock out a lot of the favorites, it bodes well for the books," Vaccaro said. "You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to see when the underdogs win, you knock out these parlay cards."
According to estimates, some books held about 70 percent on the parlay cards. The hold, or win percentage, for the cards is in the 30 percent range on an average Sunday.
The only favorites to cover were Atlanta, Baltimore, Detroit and Indianapolis, and the Colts, 7-point favorites, were lucky to escape in a 19-9 victory over Kansas City.
New Orleans, a 7-point favorite, dropped to 3-2 straight up and 0-4-1 against the spread. The Chargers and Cowboys, two other 7-point favorites, fell flat on their faces.
Chris Johnson finally busted loose, rushing for 131 yards and two touchdowns as the Titans defeated Dallas, 34-27. The Cowboys’ Tony Romo was picked off three times and sacked six times, and coach Wade Phillips appeared more depressed than usual.
"Tennessee is well coached," Avello said. "Dallas and San Diego are not, and that’s the problem with those two teams. I would not be surprised if there is announcement (today) that the Dallas coach is gone. That team is so disorganized, it’s a disaster."
Occasionally, these NFL games make us all miserable. I couldn’t lose last week and couldn’t win this week. Even handicapper Steve Fezzik, the back-to-back winner of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest, said he was "professionally embarrassed" to go 0-5 in Week 5.
"It’s kind of sobering to get your teeth kicked in in the contest. It hasn’t happened to me in a few years," Fezzik said. "But I’m the guy who always says you can’t hit 57 percent."
The books do not automatically win big when the underdogs roll in, but it’s usually a formula for success.
"I always try to dispel the theory that favorites going down is good for the house. The house doesn’t always necessarily need the favorites. The players have been on some underdogs," Avello said. "But there were some games that worked out well for us.
"It’s too early to really put too much opinion into who’s going to be good at the end, but I really believe the Ravens are going to be good at the end."
The Saints still have a shot. The Buffalo Bills do not.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He also co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and kdwn.com.
