NFL still hard to figure out for bettors
At the conclusion of another mundane Sunday, when the point-spread results were routine and the finishes absent of drama, Eli Manning and the New York Giants coasted to an easy victory.
Betting on this stuff is simple. Walk to the window, hand over the cash, kick back and relax for a few hours, and then go collect. No sweat, right?
"The NFL is weird," Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller said. "It’s hard to figure out."
A short time after Miller spoke those words, the Dallas Cowboys took a 12-point lead on the Giants with 5:41 remaining. And that’s when an odd day turned outright bizarre.
The Giants, 4½-point underdogs, stormed back to stun the Cowboys, 37-34. Manning, who passed for 400 yards and two touchdowns, celebrated a crazy comeback, as did underdog bettors.
Dallas owner Jerry Jones, coach Jason Garrett and quarterback Tony Romo all turned ghostly white, as did favorite bettors. Yes, the NFL is weird and hard to figure.
Romo played one of his finer games, passing for 321 yards and four touchdowns, but wound up on the wrong side of the fine line between winning and losing.
Fourteen games were on the Sunday schedule in Week 14, and 10 of them took bettors for roller-coaster rides. Not even Mitt Romney wants to throw around $10,000 wagers on these games.
Let’s start at the top of the rotation:
Baltimore, a 16-point favorite, led 24-3 but blew the cover when Dan Orlovsky hit Jacob Tamme for a 13-yard touchdown pass as time expired, lifting Indianapolis to a 24-10 loss.
Cincinnati, a 3-point favorite, led 16-3 at halftime and collapsed in the fourth quarter. T.J. Yates’ 6-yard pass to Kevin Walter with two seconds left gave Houston a 20-19 victory.
Detroit, a 10-point favorite, went up 28-7 early in the second quarter. But Minnesota battled back behind backup quarterback Joe Webb, and the Lions were lucky to escape, 34-28.
"They bet the Lions like crazy," Miller said.
New Orleans, a 3½-point favorite, took a 22-10 lead on Drew Brees’ second touchdown pass of the fourth quarter with seven minutes to go. Rookie quarterback Jake Locker rallied Tennessee to within 22-17, and after driving the Titans to the Saints 5-yard line, Locker was sacked as time expired.
New England, a 7½-point favorite, held on to defeat Washington, 34-27. The Patriots’ shot to cover was squandered, strangely, by Tom Brady, who threw an interception in the end zone with 6:30 to play. The Redskins’ shot to win, fittingly, was blocked by a Rex Grossman interception in the red zone.
Atlanta, a 3-point favorite, fell behind, 23-7. But Matt Ryan cashed in on three second-half touchdown passes — the last a 75-yarder to Julio Jones with 4:17 to go — to beat Carolina, 31-23.
Tampa Bay, a 3-point favorite, appeared to be in for an easy day after jumping up 14-0. Of course, it’s almost never easy, and the Buccaneers ended up on the wrong side of a 41-14 blowout loss to Jacksonville.
San Francisco, a 3½-point favorite, held a 19-7 lead in the third quarter. The 49ers, the league’s most reliable team against the spread at 10-1-1 going in, unraveled in a 21-19 loss to Arizona and backup quarterback John Skelton.
Chicago, a 3-point underdog, led 10-0 late in the fourth quarter, which meant Tim Tebow had the Bears right where he wanted them. The Broncos’ shocking comeback resulted in a 13-10 overtime victory, and I guess at this point we should no longer be shocked by anything Tebow and the Broncos do.
"There was good two-way action on that game," Miller said. "The Broncos are just on fire. It’s unbelievable."
It seemed nothing could top that, and then the Giants might have topped it. That’s up for debate.
There were four mundane games. Green Bay, Philadelphia, San Diego and the New York Jets made their wins and covers look easy. The Packers led 31-0 at the half and rolled to 13-0 with a 46-16 rout of the Oakland Raiders.
"The Green Bay game hurt us. That was done in the first quarter," Miller said. "The public is just loving the Packers. There is just no stopping them. Their best chance to lose is probably going to be in the Super Bowl."
Between now and then, expect more crazy Sundays, because the best bet in the NFL is that it’s usually weird and hard to figure.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
