NFL quarterback rankings reflect Peyton’s tumble
Two months and seven straight losses later, the Dallas Cowboys’ margin for error has been eliminated. So, the stage is set for the return of Tony Romo, who is taking his talents to South Beach for a must-win comeback.
How much is a quarterback worth to the betting line? It obviously depends on the quality of the starter and the backup.
The Cowboys were a lost cause without Romo, sidelined since Sept. 20 with a broken collarbone. His backups, Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel, failed miserably and paled in comparison.
Dallas is in a pick’em game at Miami on Sunday, and Westgate Las Vegas sports book director Jay Kornegay said he thinks Romo’s presence is worth a 4-point difference in the line.
“Some might argue it’s a little more,” Kornegay said. “I’m going to make it a little less because it’s Romo’s first game back.”
In their first game without Peyton Manning, the Denver Broncos are 1-point underdogs at Chicago. But he’s not the Manning of a year or two ago, and his backup, Brock Osweiler, has to be an upgrade over the four-interception, hobbling Manning of a week ago.
“You could actually make a case that Osweiler improves the Broncos’ chances,” Kornegay said.
If you wager on the NFL, your handicapping usually starts with the quarterbacks. Beer-drinking gamblers and brain surgeons can agree that Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers rank as the most valuable. In the past, when Rodgers was out, his worth to Green Bay was proven to be a full touchdown.
“The elite quarterbacks are always hovering around 7 points with an average backup,” Kornegay said.
Despite the league’s determined efforts over the summer to suspend Brady, he pulled an upset in court, and New England is 9-0. Where would the Patriots be without him?
“If I was to draft a team right now, Brady would be the No. 1 guy, and you could probably say that consistently over the years,” Kornegay said. “Brady gets his praise, but he probably deserves more. I would not say he’s a product of the Patriots’ system. He puts up great numbers despite the changes that are around him.”
At 38, Brady is not showing any ill effects from aging. His arm strength, something that has deserted Manning at 39, still is there. If quarterbacks are most accurately judged by wins and losses, Brady still checks all the boxes. Rodgers is riding a three-game losing streak, but the Packers’ crumbling supporting cast is getting stuck with most of the blame.
From first to worst
The Review-Journal ranks the NFL’s regular starting quarterbacks, with staff writers Todd Dewey and Adam Hill joining me on a three-man voting panel:
1. Tom Brady, Patriots: Motivated by the offseason controversy, Brady is burying commissioner Roger Goodell and any other critics. He has 24 touchdown passes with three interceptions. His passer rating (111.1) is tops in the league, and he was a unanimous No. 1 in our poll.
“The best quarterback ever is playing better than ever behind a banged-up offensive line,” Dewey said. “He leads in TD passes and passing yards (3,043) through the first nine games of his Deflate-gate revenge tour.”
2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers: Despite the Packers’ recent problems, it’s impossible to rip Rodgers, who has 21 touchdown passes and three interceptions, impressive numbers compiled without his favorite wide receiver, Jordy Nelson.
3. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: Big Ben gets hurt a lot, but he’s a quick healer. In a surprise return from a foot injury last week, he passed for 379 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-9 blowout of the Browns. With him, the Steelers are Super Bowl contenders. Without him, they might not see the playoffs.
4. Cam Newton, Panthers: His dancing antics are annoying, but Newton is in the Most Valuable Player conversation. With mediocre receivers, Newton is becoming elite, even if some stats (56.3 completion percentage, nine interceptions, 84.8 rating that ranks 21st) don’t show it.
5. Philip Rivers, Chargers: It’s often ugly, but Rivers still is effective. He’s No. 2 in passing yards (3,033) with San Diego slumping at 2-7.
6. Carson Palmer, Cardinals: Late last season, the Cardinals were awful in Palmer’s absence. Arizona now has a three-game lead in the NFC West. Palmer has 23 touchdown passes and seven interceptions while ranking second to Brady with a rating of 108.
7. Drew Brees, Saints: His arm and his weapons are weaker, but some numbers (69.5 percent completions, 20 touchdowns, 101.3 rating) indicate Brees has not slipped as much as perceived.
8. Eli Manning, Giants: It’s hard to forget his game-management meltdown at Dallas in Week 1. Still, Manning is capable of standing toe to toe with Brady. It helps to have Odell Beckham Jr. making big plays. Eli is on the fringe of elite, and he has 21 touchdown passes and six interceptions.
9. Andy Dalton, Bengals: Until he wins a playoff game, Dalton will be disrespected. His passer rating (104.6) ranks No. 4, and Cincinnati is 8-1. But the Bengals are off a bad loss, and the disbelievers are betting against them this week at Arizona.
10. Russell Wilson, Seahawks: The Super Bowl loser often feels a hangover. Seattle’s season has been a mess. Wilson has slipped behind a bad offensive line.
11. Tony Romo, Cowboys: Will he be rusty in his return against the Dolphins? When healthy, Romo can make plays few other quarterbacks can make. Last season might have been his finest, with 34 touchdown passes and a postseason win.
12. Andrew Luck, Colts: Luck’s stock has plummeted this season, partly because of injuries and a weak offensive line. He has thrown 12 interceptions and his passer rating (74.9) is 30th. Without him, Indianapolis is a 6-point ‘dog at Atlanta on Sunday. But veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck is not much of a downgrade at this point.
13. Matt Ryan, Falcons: He never can get over the hump and emerge as elite. Ryan is fixed at the high end of middle-of-the-pack quarterbacks.
14. Derek Carr, Raiders: Still growing in his second season, Carr has star potential. His numbers (21 touchdowns, 101.4 rating) rank with the best in the league. He will break into the top 10 if the Raiders reach the playoffs.
15. Joe Flacco, Ravens: Most times when you watch him, you wonder how this average Joe ever won a Super Bowl. He’s better in the playoffs than in the regular season, which is not a terrible trait. He has thrown 10 interceptions, and Baltimore is 2-7, but the Ravens’ most costly shortcomings are at positions other than quarterback.
16. Tyrod Taylor, Bills: His completion percentage (70.5) ranks No. 1 and his passer rating (106.2) trails only Brady and Palmer. In our poll, Taylor was voted as high as eighth in the NFL.
“Think he’s too high? You’re wrong,” Hill said. “Just look at the numbers. The first-year starter has the Bills in the thick of the playoff race, ranking first in the league in completion percentage, third in quarterback rating and fifth in yards per attempt. Buffalo’s record might look even better if it not for losing both games he missed with injury. He’s been the real deal thus far.”
17. Blake Bortles, Jaguars: In his second season, Bortles is showing positive signs. He’s not a bust, even if Jacksonville is destined to remain bottom of the barrel. Bortles has 20 touchdown passes, including one Thursday in an ugly victory over Tennessee.
18. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jets: There are far worse options in the league. He’s a smart game manager who has limitations. He has 15 touchdown passes and nine interceptions — not great, not bad and probably better than what Geno Smith can offer.
19. Jay Cutler, Bears: Chicago was hopeless without him early this season. But he’s an enigma, capable of lighting it up on a Monday night or stinking it up during an 18-interception season in 2014.
20. Marcus Mariota, Titans: The No. 2 pick is proving to be the real deal as a rookie. Right now, however, he’s getting beat and trying to survive on a bad team.
21. Alex Smith, Chiefs: Smith’s best quality is he makes few big mistakes (three interceptions in 299 attempts this season). But he also makes few big plays. His backup, Chase Daniel, has a bigger upside.
22. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins: The jury is out. He looks good one week, not so good the next. Can he beat Romo this week?
23. Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings: I voted Bridgewater the third-worst starter in the league. He has seven touchdown passes and six interceptions for a 7-2 team. Minnesota is not winning because of him.
24. Peyton Manning, Broncos: With nine touchdown passes, 17 interceptions and a rating (67.6) that is 31st in the league, the end is near for Manning. Denver should be better with the stronger-armed Osweiler. Hill and I voted Manning 28th.
“Broncos fans may not be happy with his placement on this list, but they can’t be too thrilled with his performance, either,” Hill said. “His quarterback rating is nearly 30 points lower than his career number. It has been a horrible season for Manning, and at his advanced age combined with all the injury problems, things just aren’t going to get any better.”
25. Matthew Stafford, Lions: This is Detroit’s version of Cutler, yet Stafford’s stats this season are worse. He can pile up yards, but he’s not a winner.
26. Sam Bradford, Eagles: It seems injuries always will dog Bradford. He’s not the right fit in coach Chip Kelly’s offense. His backup, Mark Sanchez, could be a slight upgrade.
27. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers: The No. 1 pick is not a bust just yet. He has 10 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a nagging habit of making too many bad decisions.
28. Kirk Cousins, Redskins: At best, he will be middle of the pack. Cousins does give Washington a better chance to win than Robert Griffin III.
29. Brian Hoyer, Texans: The biggest mistake coach Bill O’Brien made was benching Hoyer for Ryan Mallett, who’s a loser. Hoyer (13 touchdowns, four interceptions) can win some games if he has a strong supporting cast.
30. Nick Foles, Rams: Benched for Case Keenum, Foles’ days as a potential franchise quarterback are history. St. Louis could be better with Keenum this week.
31. Johnny Manziel, Browns: It’s time for Cleveland to roll with Manziel and find out if he has a future as a starter. He’s probably a decent backup. He might have been a better backup plan for the Cowboys.
32. Blaine Gabbert, 49ers: Colin Kaepernick can be a quality quarterback again, but he needs a change of scenery, and it might be in Philadelphia. Gabbert won his first start in San Francisco, but he was the unanimous last-place pick in our poll.
* CLOSING NUMBERS — How valuable is Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook? The Spartans would have no shot to beat Ohio State without him. But it appears he’s ready to go. It’s time for college football picks (32-26-2 for the season.) Here are eight plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):
Indiana (+3) over MARYLAND; Memphis (-1½) over TEMPLE; Northwestern (+10½) over WISCONSIN; Georgia Tech (-2) over MIAMI; OKLAHOMA STATE (Pick) over Baylor; Michigan State (+14) over OHIO STATE; PENN STATE (+4) over Michigan; Colorado State (-2) over NEW MEXICO.
— Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him: @mattyoumans247
