NFL bettors faced with several questions, find few answers
With a big lead, the football in his hands and less than seven minutes on the clock, Philip Rivers and the Chargers seemed headed for certain victory on a sunny Sunday in San Diego. What could possibly go wrong?
The clumsy, defenseless and winless New Orleans Saints were on the other side. Bettors were counting money that was about to be either won or lost.
“In this league, one week you think you have a team figured out, and the next week you don’t,” Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said.
It’s not just week to week. Things can change dramatically in a matter of minutes. In the sense that the NFL is so illogical and wild, it’s a bookmakers’ dream. If the games were easy to predict, none of us would need to show up for work on Mondays.
Just when the Saints seemed to be a lost cause, a series of lightning bolts struck the choking Chargers.
Melvin Gordon fumbled on first down. Four plays later, Drew Brees tossed a fourth-down touchdown pass to pull the Saints within six points. Travis Benjamin fumbled on first down. Seven plays later, Brees handed off to fullback John Kuhn, who barrelled over the goal line to put the Saints on top 35-34 with 1:57 remaining.
On fourth-and-22 with just over a minute to go, Rivers threw an interception. And that was it. San Diego, a 4-point favorite, watched a 13-point lead disappear in a stunning defeat.
“That’s a monumental collapse,” Esposito said. “How do the Chargers lose so many of those games?”
On the mysterious subject of the NFL, bettors are faced with countless questions and come up with too few answers.
I watched Sunday’s action with Esposito and Las Vegas radio host Brian Blessing at Club Madrid inside Sunset Station, where admission is free and the food is cheap. You place wagers at your own risk, and bookmakers were on the winning end of the business in Week 4.
“When was the last time the Patriots were shut out?” Blessing asked.
New England was a 7-point favorite over Buffalo when the books closed Saturday. The line dropped to 3½ early Sunday, when news leaked that quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was scratched and rookie Jacoby Brissett would start for the Patriots.
Every ticket on the Patriots went into the trash when they were shut out at home for the first time since 1993. The Bills’ 16-0 win dropped New England to 3-1 without quarterback Tom Brady, who returns from suspension this week.
Is it really smart to take points with the Browns? In another classic collapse, Cleveland, a 7½-point underdog, was outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter of a 31-20 loss at Washington. You have to do it sometimes, but it’s tough to make a living consistently betting on bad teams.
Are the Bears too bad to bet? Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller said Friday afternoon the ticket count on the Detroit-Chicago game was 141-1. When kickoff arrived, William Hill sports books reported around 85 percent on the money was on the Lions, who closed as 3½-point favorites in a 17-14 loss.
Upset wins by the Bears, Saints and Jacksonville/London Jaguars left the Browns as the league’s lone 0-4 team.
What’s wrong with the Cardinals and Panthers? The teams from last season’s NFC title game are each 1-3, and each team’s quarterback was knocked out Sunday. Cam Newton was unable to finish in Carolina’s 48-33 loss at Atlanta. Carson Palmer walked off dizzy during Arizona’s 17-13 loss to Los Angeles.
Remember the worst teams in Week 1? After train wrecks in their openers, the Falcons and Rams have rallied to 3-1.
How about those Cowboys rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott? Prescott passed for two touchdowns and Elliott rushed for 138 yards as Dallas overcame a 14-0 deficit to defeat San Francisco 24-17. The so-called sharp money was on the 49ers as short home ’dogs.
Are the Raiders for real? Oakland is 3-0 on the road after upsetting Baltimore 28-27. The Raiders, 3½-point underdogs, rallied to win on Derek Carr’s fourth touchdown pass, a 23-yard strike to Michael Crabtree with 2:12 to go.
“One of the better games for the bettors was the Raiders,” Esposito said.
Bettors also cashed in on the Broncos, who are 4-0 with a dominant defense and two young quarterbacks. Why did Denver attract so many doubters before the season?
Why did so many of us bet the Jets? New York, a popular home ’dog, was outclassed at quarterback in a 27-17 loss to Seattle. Russell Wilson passed for three touchdowns, and Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three more interceptions.
Why was the so-called sharp money against the Steelers? Pittsburgh, a 3½-point home favorite, crushed Kansas City 43-14.
So many questions and too few answers.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
