NFL betting public has lost faith in Broncos’ Tebow
With a left ankle sprain, Ben Roethlisberger is limping on something resembling a wooden leg, and he has the battle scars and bad reputation of a Pittsburgh pirate. All that’s missing is an eye patch.
The Steelers are banged up, and not just their quarterback. While Roethlisberger hobbled onto the practice field Thursday, three key defensive stars — safety Troy Polamalu, linebacker James Harrison and end Brett Keisel — did not. But all four are expected to play in Sunday’s AFC wild-card game at Denver.
Even with Roethlisberger on one leg, the Steelers are 8½-point favorites over the Broncos. The line is moving toward 9. The majority of betting tickets on Pittsburgh show the lack of faith in Tim Tebow, who always talks about his faith.
The NFL’s soap opera storylines help boost its popularity, and the battle between the pirate and the preacher shapes up as the top playoff matchup of the weekend for bettors and bookmakers.
“That will be the most bet-on game of the week,” said Mike Colbert, Cantor Gaming sports book director at M Resort. “That handle will probably double every other game.”
A year ago, underdogs covered all four games in the wild-card round. According to The Gold Sheet, home ‘dogs are 12-4 against the spread in first-round games since 1978.
“You will probably hear or read some great stats on how ‘dogs have done in the playoffs over the years,” VegasSportsAuthority.com handicapper Jim Kruger said. “I do believe in looking at historical trends and systems, but there are times you have to overlook them. This is that time where ignoring the past is best.
“Denver had an unbelievable six-game winning streak that was similar to watching a David Copperfield show. You saw it happen, but you don’t know how it happened. You know it is smoke and mirrors, but you saw it happen so you walk away in amazement. But the last three games are a true indication of the Broncos’ capabilities.”
Kruger, who recommended a play on the Steelers when the line was at 8, is not a Tebow believer, at least not this week. After his magical run, Tebow’s tricks were exposed. He completed 30 of 73 passes in his past three games, including 6 of 22 in a 7-3 loss to Kansas City in Week 17.
“Tebow appears to have actually lost his enthusiasm and belief in winning. His confidence appeared shattered after the Kansas City game. Teams have learned to contain him in the pocket and make him beat them through the air,” Kruger said. “I’ll take a gimpy Big Ben over a deflated QB without NFL talent.”
The Pittsburgh defense ranks No. 1 in the league overall and against the pass. It is coordinated by Dick LeBeau, who has seen everything and stopped everything. Tebow is in for another tough day, and the total of 34 indicates the oddsmakers don’t expect much scoring from the Broncos.
But over the final six weeks of the regular season, the Steelers’ offense was pretty anemic, too, and running back Rashard Mendenhall is missing now. Pittsburgh was held to 13 points at Kansas City, 3 at San Francisco and an average of 13.5 points in two games against Cleveland.
“Roethlisberger is probably playing at 60 percent, and the Steelers are not scoring,” Colbert said. “The Denver defense will get pressure on Roethlisberger.”
The Broncos’ three-game slide started with a 41-23 loss to New England on Dec. 18. The Patriots closed as 7-point road favorites.
“Should the Steelers be 9? I don’t think so,” Colbert said. “Tebow has been atrocious for a few weeks now, and even some of the Tebow-maniacs have switched off. He looks lost out there.
“But I expect it to be a close game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 20-17. That crowd is going to be pretty wild. The public will bet the Steelers, but if it hits 10, you’ll see an avalanche of Denver money from the sharps.”
Pittsburgh will be a popular play on teasers at around minus-2½, and that’s the way I’ll bet it. I’ll pass on the boring Cincinnati-Houston game on Saturday and do something far more interesting, like watch college basketball. In the other two matchups, Detroit and Atlanta might be worth a run as ‘dogs.
New Orleans is 8-0 straight up and ATS at the Superdome, where it whipped the Lions 31-17 on Dec. 4. But Detroit defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh was suspended, and his presence could be just enough to slow Saints quarterback Drew Brees and keep the rematch a little closer. The line is 10½ and likely to reach 11.
“Some of the sharp guys are going to let the public drive these numbers up as high as possible,” Colbert said. “Right now, the Saints are the absolute hot team and the public team. That is the team people are looking to bet. Even the sharp guys aren’t betting against them lately. But the number is inflated. If anything, I think you have to look at Detroit.”
In Sunday’s NFC showdown, the New York Giants are 3-point favorites over Atlanta. But Colbert has had the line at 2½ (minus-115).
“I like the Falcons, and I think they may surprise some people,” Colbert said. “The Giants are hot, but they are very inconsistent. I make it an absolute coin-toss game, and I think the Falcons will be bet.”
The Broncos won’t get bet much, not as an 8-8 team that backed into the playoffs with an unorthodox quarterback. But if they cover, it won’t be as surprising as the news this week that San Diego is retaining Norv Turner as coach.
Never question the Chargers’ commitment to mediocrity.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
