NFL betting insanity just beginning
Once again, it was a night Cam Newton wants to forget. This time, after he was crushed on a helmet-to-helmet hit, he might not remember anything anyway.
The NFL returned Thursday night and brought a little bit of everything with it — hard hits on quarterbacks, concerns over concussions, dumb penalties, questionable calls, great plays on both sides of the ball, terrible time-management decisions, a choking kicker, last-minute drama and point-spread suspense.
And it was only the opening act in a long season that will close in February.
The first game of this season was far better than the final game of last season, a mostly dull and sloppy Super Bowl 50 that was won by Denver and its defense. The betting public favored Newton and the Carolina Panthers both times. The Broncos cashed as underdogs both times, this time by a 21-20 score that was every bit that close.
But the ’dog clearly was the right side again, and the books won again.
“It was mostly Panthers,” Jay Rood, MGM Resorts sports book director, said of the wagering action. “I think a lot of people are blindly — for lack of a better term — betting against Denver’s rookie quarterback, which in the NFL is not such a bad angle.”
Newton, with help from two Denver defensive penalties, cleared the cobwebs and did enough to put the Panthers in position to win on their final drive.
Graham Gano lined up with 9 seconds to go and booted the winning 50-yard field goal just inside the right upright. But it came after a Broncos timeout. Whether you want to say he was effectively iced or not, Gano hooked the next one that counted wide left.
As a 3-point ’dog, Denver had the cover either way. The field-goal attempt decided the total, which opened at 43, dropped to 41½ early Thursday and closed at 40½.
There are 15 games remaining in Week 1, including 13 on Sunday and a doubleheader Monday. The insanity of the NFL is just beginning.
Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian is not a rookie, but it was his first win as a starter. He played at least as well as Peyton Manning did in the Super Bowl. Manning, who made a cameo appearance in the NBC broadcast booth, is now pitching cars, insurance and pizza full time instead of pitching wobbly passes.
Two rookie quarterbacks will start this week — Carson Wentz for Philadelphia and Dak Prescott for Dallas — and I won’t bet on either one. Wentz will catch a needed break by facing the Cleveland Browns.
Needing a team of the Broncos’ quality to cover is never a nightmare for bookmakers.
“We’re always rooting for the ugly teams,” Rood said. “We’re always rooting for the Browns, Saints, Rams, 49ers and Lions.”
Add the Jaguars to the list. The Green Bay-Jacksonville game might end up being the books’ most important decision of Week 1. The betting public loves Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who are 5½-point road favorites.
“I think people perceive that to be a short point spread,” Rood said. “That’s going to be a big game for us.”
I’ll pass on the game. As much as I like the Packers in the big picture this season, I rarely bet road favorites of more than a field goal.
Another NFL betting theory I try to practice is to keep a contrarian attitude, for the most part. Avoid the obvious. If everyone sees something, the opposite is often going to happen.
Who wants to buy a piece of the Chicago Bears this week? Nobody, basically. I don’t like much of anything about the Bears. But Houston is such a popular side, I’ll stray from public opinion and stay away from the Texans.
Atlanta and Indianapolis are two unpopular home favorites. The Colts are laying 3½ to Detroit. The Falcons are laying a field goal against Tampa Bay.
“We’re getting a ton of Lions money. It’s sharp action,” Rood said. “Everyone is down on the Falcons.”
Newton, the league’s reigning Most Valuable Player, just lost back-to-back games to Manning, a decrepit veteran playing the final game of his career, and Siemian, a former seventh-round draft pick making his first career start.
The betting public, for the most part, was down on Denver in both cases. Everyone could see Carolina had the far better quarterback.
Handicapping the NFL is a weird science.
CLOSING NUMBERS — The first weekend of college football actually exceeded the hype. As for the second weekend, there is absolutely no hype. We’re going from a classic Paul Newman movie to a cheesy infomercial. From big-time games to blowouts and ugly matchups. Yet we’re still going to bet because winning ugly games pays the same.
I went 3-1-1 last week with wins on Auburn, Brigham Young and Texas. All three easily could have been losers, but never apologize for good luck or winning a coin flip. Five underdog plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):
Massachusetts (+17) over Boston College; Byu (+3½) over UTAH; Unlv (+26½) over UCLA; Texas Tech (+3) over ARIZONA STATE; California (+7) over SAN DIEGO STATE.
Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247
