New twist in Bulldogs’ tale: favorite’s role
It’s easy to fall for Butler and its remarkable underdog story. Blue-collar forward Matt Howard does the dirty work, guard Shelvin Mack buries gutsy long-range shots, and the role players glue the gaps.
And it’s all orchestrated by Brad Stevens, a 34-year-old coach who would probably get carded buying beer and cigarettes — though if he drinks or smokes, it would be a surprise. He’s won nine of 10 NCAA Tournament games en route to his second straight Final Four.
But on Saturday, the underdogs won’t be the Bulldogs, who are 2½-point favorites over Virginia Commonwealth.
“I thought it was a dead pick-’em game,” Cal Neva sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. “I don’t know who should be laying points to VCU. I don’t know who’s playing better.”
The Bulldogs’ run past Old Dominion, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin and Florida was highlighted by three games that went to the buzzer.
“That was in the ‘dog role,” Bogdanovich said. “Now Butler is in the favorite role.”
Will the role reversal make any difference in how the Bulldogs approach the game, at least subconsciously? Bogdanovich, a former college basketball player, doubts it, saying, “They are probably oblivious to it. Nothing is going to change the way they play.”
Almost all of us could agree on that point. But it might change the way the game is bet. It’s risky to lay points with Butler, which has had winning margins of one point and two points in regulation and three points in overtime.
The Rams, underdogs in all five tournament games, bombed four opponents by double digits and slipped past Florida State by one.
“I expect this one to be a wire job,” Bogdanovich said. “This has been the best tournament. Every game it seems comes down to the end.”
So it makes sense the sharp bettors jumped on VCU plus-3 when the line opened. It’s hard to argue with taking the points, but I like Butler. The Bulldogs will slow the pace and defend the Rams on the perimeter and in transition. Howard and Mack have experience winning tight games on the big stage. Stevens has the coaching edge. Unwilling to lay points, I bet the money line at minus-140.
The total for Butler-VCU is 133.
In the second semifinal, Kentucky is favored by 2 to 2½ points over Connecticut, and professional bettor Steve Fezzik (LVAsports.com) said he recommends playing it under the total of 140.
“They both look like halfcourt games to me,” said Bogdanovich, who used to bet the games from the players’ side of the window. “I would look to the ‘under’ in both games.”
No matter what, most Las Vegas books are in good shape with futures wagers. But Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay feels a little uneasy, because the Hilton took a $10 bet on VCU at 5,000-1 odds about three months ago.
“We take those bets all the time,” Kornegay said. “This is the first time I can remember anyone taking those long of odds on a ticket and having a chance to cash it.”
If VCU wins the national championship, the payoff for the ticket is $50,000. So for the lucky bettor, what’s the proper way to hedge and lock in a profit?
“Everybody has a different opinion when you bring up a scenario like that. There’s no textbook way to do it,” Kornegay said. “It’s all your comfort zone. How much do you want to risk, and how much do you want to secure?”
There are tax implications and possible previous hedging losses to consider. But here is Fezzik’s basic advice: Bet Butler minus-140 for $5,600 to win $4,000 on Saturday. If VCU wins, bet the favorite at about minus-280 for $22,400 to win $8,000 on Monday.
“It’s important to psychologically walk away with a profit on the ticket,” Fezzik said.
According to Bogdanovich, the Butler-VCU winner will be a 4- to 5-point underdog in Monday’s title game, and the number could change slightly depending on how the teams look Saturday.
Whatever the gap is between Connecticut and Kentucky, it appears razor thin. I lean to Kemba Walker and the Huskies getting points, but that opinion could change.
“Every time they play, Walker is by far the best player on the floor. He just will not let them lose right now,” Bogdanovich said. “That’s a tough one. I think Kentucky is going to get it done.
“Kentucky and Butler by the skin of their teeth, and then another nail-biter on Monday night. I would like to see Butler win it.”
The Bulldogs lost a nail-biter in last year’s title game. Maybe their role will reverse this time.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the “Las Vegas Sportsline” weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.
